National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JOHN... ...LIKELY TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 12:00 AM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 14.1, -98.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230535
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm John, located just south of southern
Mexico.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorm activity has diminished somewhat with a
trough of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions only appear
marginally favorable for slow development of this system as it
moves slowly eastward to the south of the coast of Mexico through
the middle of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 05:33:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 03:24:07 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 02:42:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 03:24:07 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230233 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 Satellite images show that the depression is gradually becoming better organized, with some convective banding features developing around the circulation and a small area of very cold cloud tops over the estimated center. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the southern semicircle of the system. Subjective Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB indicate a T-number of 2.0, so the advisory intensity is held at 30 kt for now. Center fixes indicate little movement since earlier today, so the initial motion estimate is nearly stationary. As noted earlier, the track forecast for this tropical cyclone is quite problematic, with a large spread in the guidance models. The regional hurricane models are generally east of the global guidance, with the ECMWF on the western side of the model tracks. The most recent run of the GFS takes the cyclone inland in a couple of days but later develops one or two new centers offshore. Since the dominant steering mechanism seems to be the Central American Gyre, the official track forecast shows a mainly east-northeastward motion during the forecast period, along the southern periphery of the Gyre. This track moves the center close to the southern coast of Mexico for several days before making landfall, and lies between the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. During most of the forecast period, the system should remain over very warm waters with low vertical wind shear and in a moist low- to mid-level air mass. Therefore strengthening is likely, and the official intensity forecast is similar to the statistical-dynamical LGEM guidance. One major source of uncertainty in the forecast is how much the system interacts with land during the next few days. Given the favorable environment, it is possible that the system could become a hurricane before landfall. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should closely monitor the latest forecast updates for this system. A Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of the coast now covered by a Tropical Storm Watch. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow-moving Tropical Depression Ten-E will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Monday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for a portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday. 3. The system could strengthen more than forecast depending on how long it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as a Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of the coastline later tonight or on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.9N 98.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.3N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 15.2N 96.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 15.6N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.3N 94.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230233 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 100W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P ANGEL 34 X 6( 6) 18(24) 12(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) 21(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SALINA CRUZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Sun Sep 22 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.9, -98.6 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 230232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 ...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 98.6W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 98.6 West. The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward motion is expected later tonight and Monday. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move near the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system will likely become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, the Tropical Depression is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Ten, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area beginning on Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with the depression are forecast to begin to affect the coast of southern Mexico on Monday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Sun Sep 22 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.9, -98.6 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 230231 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.6W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.6W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.3N 98.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 97.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.2N 96.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.6N 95.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.3N 94.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 50SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 98.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 600 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 222332 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 ...DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 98.7W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 98.7 West. The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward motion is expected to begin later tonight and Monday. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move near the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system will likely become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, the depression is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast, between 10 and 20 inches of rain can be expected through Thursday, with localized higher amounts near 30 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area beginning on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM CST Sun Sep 22 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.8, -98.7 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2024 23:32:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2024 21:23:36 GMT

667
ABPZ20 KNHC 222322
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Ten-E, located south of southern Mexico.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some slow development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the middle part of the week while the
system moves slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 222057 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 Convection has gradually become better organized today in association with an area of low pressure that the NHC has been monitoring off the coast of southern Mexico. A recent scatterometer pass shows the circulation is closed, with a well-defined center and peak winds of about 30 kt over the southern semicircle. Therefore, a new tropical depression has formed in the eastern Pacific basin. The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward drift is expected to begin later tonight. The track forecast is challenging, as there is a large spread in the guidance regarding the potential path of the system. Much of the track guidance shows the system moving generally east-northeastward as it becomes captured within the broader circulation of a developing Central American Gyre. However, a couple of global models (ECMWF and UKMET) instead show a northward drift over the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast favors the first scenario, and generally lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. However, this track forecast is of low confidence given the large spread in the models, and adjustments will likely be required with future issuances. The moist, unstable environment and very warm waters should be conducive for some strengthening of the system during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the IVCN and HCCA aids, but it should be noted that there are some models indicating the system could reach hurricane strength. While this is not explicitly forecast, it certainly cannot be ruled out given the environmental and oceanic conditions, and interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates. The peak intensity of the system will be highly dependent on how long the cyclone remains over water before reaching the coast, which is quite uncertain given the track challenges described above. Based on this forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow-moving Tropical Depression Ten-E will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of significant flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas and Oaxaca, particularly in areas near the coast. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm while moving near the coast of southern Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coastline, where tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday. 3. The system could strengthen more than forecast if it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as a Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of the coastline later tonight or on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 13.8N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 14.0N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 98.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.8N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.0N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 15.3N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 16.1N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 17.1N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2024 20:52:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2024 21:23:36 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 222050 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 Convection has gradually become better organized today in association with an area of low pressure that the NHC has been monitoring off the coast of southern Mexico. A recent scatterometer pass shows the circulation is closed, with a well-defined center and peak winds of about 30 kt over the southern semicircle. Therefore, a new tropical depression has formed in the eastern Pacific basin. The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward drift is expected to begin later tonight. The track forecast is challenging, as there is a large spread in the guidance regarding the potential path of the system. Much of the track guidance shows the system moving generally east-northeastward as it becomes captured within the broader circulation of a developing Central American Gyre. However, a couple of global models (ECMWF and UKMET) instead show a northward drift over the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast favors the first scenario, and generally lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. However, this track forecast is of low confidence given the large spread in the models, and adjustments will likely be required with future issuances. The moist, unstable environment and very warm waters should be conducive for some strengthening of the system during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the IVCN and HCCA aids, but it should be noted that there are some models indicating the system could reach hurricane strength. While this is not explicitly forecast, it certainly cannot be ruled out given the environmental and oceanic conditions, and interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates. The peak intensity of the system will be highly dependent on how long the cyclone remains over water before reaching the coast, which is quite uncertain given the track challenges described above. Based on this forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow moving Tropical Depression Ten will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of significant flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas and Oaxaca, particularly in areas near the coast. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm while moving near the coast of southern Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coastline, where tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday. 3. The system could strengthen more than forecast if it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as a Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of the coastline later tonight or on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 13.8N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 14.0N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 98.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.8N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.0N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 15.3N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 16.1N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 17.1N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 222050 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 100W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P ANGEL 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 14(27) 9(36) 1(37) X(37) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 28(44) 1(45) X(45) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) 15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SALINA CRUZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 222050 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 98.7W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 98.7 West. The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward motion is expected to begin later tonight and Monday. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move near the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the center of the system remains over water. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, the depression is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast, between 10 and 20 inches of rain can be expected through Thursday, with localized higher amounts near 30 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area beginning on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Sun Sep 22 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.8, -98.7 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.