National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171116
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161149
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152311
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana, located over the Gulf of California.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 14:41:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 15:28:48 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024 227 WTPZ44 KNHC 151440 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024 Ileana has been devoid of deep convection since yesterday afternoon, as the system has been within a strong wind shear and very dry environment. Given the lack of convection, the system is being designated as a post-tropical remnant low. An ASCAT-C pass from late last night depicted winds near 30 kt over the Gulf of California near northern Sinaloa. Given this, will hold the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory, although that may be generous. The system has been meandering over the Gulf of California with a motion of 310/3 kt. The remnant low will increase forward speed later today as it continues northwestward. The remnant low will continue to weaken throughout the day, and is forecast to dissipate on Monday. This is the last advisory on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 25.7N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 16/0000Z 26.1N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1200Z 27.3N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024 247 WTPZ34 KNHC 151439 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024 ...ILEANA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 109.6W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM W OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 109.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northwestward motion will continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the remnant low will move over the Gulf of California near the coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnant low is forecast to weaken today and dissipate on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Ileana may bring an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall to portions of northwest Sinaloa through today. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Gusty winds are still possible along the coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will continue to subside along the Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern Baja California Sur today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kelly

...ILEANA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Sep 15 the center of Ileana was located near 25.7, -109.6 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 221 FOPZ14 KNHC 151439 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 198 WTPZ24 KNHC 151438 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 109.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 109.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.1N 110.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.3N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 109.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ileana, located near the coast of northern Sinaloa,
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 08:45:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 09:28:43 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024 064 WTPZ44 KNHC 150844 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Ileana Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024 All of Ileana's deep convection dissipated yesterday afternoon, and all that is left now is a swirl of low clouds off the coast of northern Sinaloa. An ASCAT-C pass from 0410 UTC showed maximum winds near 30 kt over the Gulf of California near northern Sinaloa, and a weather station in Topolobampo is no longer reporting winds to tropical storm force. As a result, Ileana is now designated as a 30-kt tropical depression, and all coastal warnings in Mexico have been discontinued. Ileana has been meandering, but the longer-term motion is west-northwestward, or 300/2 kt. Model guidance indicates that the cyclone should turn northwestward later today but maintain a generally slow motion while moving over the Gulf of California. Due to strong southwesterly shear and a very dry atmosphere, deep convection is not expected to redevelop, and it's likely that Gordon will be declared a remnant low later this morning. The remnant low is expected to dissipate on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 25.5N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 25.8N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z 26.5N 110.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 164 FOPZ14 KNHC 150843 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG