Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Discussion Number 6

2 years 7 months ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 111442 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Despite a continuation of moderate deep-layer shear, Linda is becoming better organized. Upper-level outflow appears to be expanding over the system, but even more notably, an 1109 UTC SSMIS microwave pass revealed that a well-defined mid-level eye has formed. Dvorak T-numbers have increased to T3.5 from both TAFB and SAB, and given the significantly improved microwave structure, Linda's initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The latest fixes, including from the microwave pass, indicate that Linda is moving a little faster and more south of due west, or 265/10 kt. This motion is being caused by a large mid-level ridge located over Mexico, and the ridging is expected to maintain Linda on a westward and then west-northwestward track for the next 5 days. There is very tight clustering among the track models for the entire forecast period, and the updated NHC track forecast lies very close to the HCCA consensus aid. This new forecast has been shifted a bit to the left of the previous official forecast to account for the updated initial position. Linda will be moving through an environment of mixed favorability for strengthening. On the positive side, sea surface temperatures will hover around 28 degrees Celsius, mid-level moisture will remain high, and upper-level divergence should be strong for the next day or two. On the negative side, the deep-layer shear is not expected to abate much for several days. That being said, the system has still been able to strengthen, and the intensity models support further intensification. The NHC intensity forecast generally lies between the HCCA aid and the IVCN consensus, and brings Linda to hurricane strength tonight with a peak intensity occurring in 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 13.8N 105.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 13.8N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 14.3N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 15.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 17.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 17.9N 116.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 19.1N 123.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Linda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2 years 7 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 111441 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 16 3(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CLIPPERTON IS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 110W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 34 3 33(36) 57(93) 3(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 56(58) 8(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 35(35) 7(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 65(73) 3(76) 1(77) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 1(41) X(41) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 25(35) 3(38) X(38) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 5(39) X(39) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) 10(58) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Advisory Number 6

2 years 7 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 111441 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.9W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 90SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.9W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 13.8N 106.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.2N 110.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.9N 116.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.1N 123.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Linda Public Advisory Number 6

2 years 7 months ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 111441 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...LINDA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 105.9W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 105.9 West. Linda is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Linda is likely to become a hurricane by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2 years 7 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 111434 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 17

2 years 7 months ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111434 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Shortwave infrared images show that the center of Kevin's broad circulation is exposed to the northeast of a persistent cluster of deep convection, resulting from 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly shear over the system. With Dvorak T-numbers holding steady at T3.0 from TAFB and T2.5 from SAB, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Recent geostationary images and a 0943 UTC GCOM overpass warranted a slight adjustment to the initial position, which now makes the initial motion northwestward at 325/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric high located over northern Mexico is expected to keep Kevin on a northwestward to west-northwestward path for the next several days, which is shown by all the track models. Most differences among the models are speed related, with the ECMWF being one of the fastest models and the GFS one of the slowest. In general, the NHC track forecast is close to the consensus aids, but the initial position adjustment required a fairly noteworthy northeastward shift in the forecast track compared to the previous advisory. Kevin's center is just about ready to move over waters cooler than 26 degrees Celsius and should be over waters as cold as 21 degrees in a couple of days. Also, the shear affecting the storm is only expected to diminish gradually, and these conditions should induce imminent weakening. In line with the latest intensity guidance, Kevin is likely to weaken to a tropical depression within 24 hours and then become a remnant low in about 48 hours when it loses all of its deep convection. This scenario is shown by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 21.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 22.0N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 23.2N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 24.4N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 25.6N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 28.3N 128.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 17

2 years 7 months ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 111434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...KEVIN ABOUT TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 116.8W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 116.8 West. Kevin is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Kevin is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by early Thursday and then a remnant low by early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of Baja California Sur over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 17

2 years 7 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 111434 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 116.8W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 390SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 116.8W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 118.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 50SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 120.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.4N 122.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.6N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.3N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2 years 7 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kevin, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Linda, located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2 years 7 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101153
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kevin, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on newly formed
Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Latto
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 12

2 years 7 months ago
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100844 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Deep convection associated with Kevin is still displaced well south and southwest of its exposed low-level center by strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. Recent scatterometer data indicate that the center is elongated from northeast to southwest, and the tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the southern semicircle of the cyclone. Based on several 35-kt wind vectors noted in the latest scatterometer passes, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Satellite imagery indicates that Kevin has taken a northward jog overnight, and its estimated initial motion is now northwest or 305/8 kt. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Based on the initial motion adjustment and guidance trends, the official NHC forecast track has been adjusted northward from the previous one, although it still lies a little to the south of the TVCE and HCCA aids. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist over Kevin for the next day or so, which should limit its ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level moisture. By the time that the wind shear diminishes, the cyclone will be passing over much cooler waters in a drier, more stable environment. Thus, little change in strength is expected in the near-term, followed by weakening beginning on Wednesday. Overall, the latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the multi-model consensus. By 72 h, GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery suggest that Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so the official NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.1N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 18.8N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 19.8N 115.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 21.0N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 22.0N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 22.9N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 23.9N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0600Z 26.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z 27.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 12

2 years 7 months ago
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 100844 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 ...KEVIN STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 113.3W ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 113.3 West. Kevin is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward or west-northwestward motion with little change in forward speed is expected over the next several days. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening beginning on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, primarily in the southern semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of Baja California Sur today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
NHC Webmaster
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4 years 5 months ago
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