National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 222049 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.0N 98.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 98.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N 97.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 96.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.3N 95.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.1N 94.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.1N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 98.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221751
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located less than 200 miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next day
or two while the system drifts northeastward or northward toward the
coast of southern Mexico. Interests in southern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system, as watches or warnings could be
required later today or tonight. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some slow development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the middle part of the week while the
system moves slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located less than 200 miles south of the coast of southern Mexico
have become better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple
of days while the system drifts slowly northeastward toward the
coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the
middle part of the week while the system moves slowly eastward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

918
ABPZ20 KNHC 220512
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure is producing an area of showers and
thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
slow development of this system while it meanders offshore the next
few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early or
middle part of next week when the system begins to move slowly
eastward or northeastward toward the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the
early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly
eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212331
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
slow development of this system while it meanders offshore the next
few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early or
middle part of next week when the system begins to move slowly
eastward or northeastward toward the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the
early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly
eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a trough
of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible
while it meanders offshore through early next week, then moves
slowly eastward or northeastward toward the coast of southern Mexico
during the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the
early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly
eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211151
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the
early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly
northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210507
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few
days while it slowly moves generally north to northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

913
ABPZ20 KNHC 202330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few
days while it slowly moves generally north to northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few
days while it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201140
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle
part of next week while it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico late this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico late this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico late this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191146
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico late this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190549
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182326
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181126
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

102
ABPZ20 KNHC 180509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin