National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 140852 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...ILEANA CONTINUES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COASTS OF NORTHERN SINALOA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SONORA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 109.2W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of mainland Mexico from Altata to Huatabampito, and has discontinued all watches and warnings for Baja California Sur. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Huatabampito Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 109.2 West. Ileana is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slower motion toward the north-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near or over the coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later today, and then move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin later this afternoon or evening, and Ileana is likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring rainfall of 6 to 8 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later this morning and afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...ILEANA CONTINUES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COASTS OF NORTHERN SINALOA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SONORA... As of 2:00 AM MST Sat Sep 14 the center of Ileana was located near 24.3, -109.2 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 140852 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 140851 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 109.2W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 109.2W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.1N 109.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.9N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.4N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 109.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

353
ABPZ20 KNHC 140536
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ileana, located over the southern Gulf of California.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1100 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 187 WTPZ34 KNHC 140535 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 1100 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...ILEANA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 109.3W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 109.3 West. Ileana is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A steady northward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is forecast to move over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ileana is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. A wind gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) was reported at Cabo Pulmo, Baja California Sur, during the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California Sur. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area in southern Baja California Sur through early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...ILEANA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... As of 11:00 PM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 23.8, -109.3 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 05:35:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 03:28:47 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 02:39:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 03:28:47 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 750 WTPZ44 KNHC 140236 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 Tropical Storm Ileana is gradually becoming less organized as it skirts the southern coast of Baja California Sur. Infrared satellite imagery shows convection being stripped away from the low-level circulation and radar imagery from Cabo San Lucas still shows a poorly organized, elongated center. Based on the degraded presentation of the storm and the earlier ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set to 35 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving northward at 8 kt, and the center is expected to begin pulling away from the coast of Baja California Sur in the next couple of hours. This motion should continue through most of Saturday before the weakening cyclone turns more north-northwestward over the Gulf of California. The track guidance has shifted eastwards slightly, largely due to the initial position, and new NHC track forecast lies between the consensus aids and the previous prediction. Vertical wind shear is expected to increase dramatically over Ileana in the next day or so. The model guidance is in good agreement that weakening should continue, and the official intensity forecast now shows Ileana becoming a depression by Saturday, a remnant low by Sunday, and dissipated by early next week. However, it is possible this could occur sooner. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California Sur through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions could continue in portions of Baja California Sur during the next several hours where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 23.5N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 24.5N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 25.5N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 26.3N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z 27.1N 110.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 044 FOPZ14 KNHC 140236 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 140235 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 109.3W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 109.3W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.5N 109.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.5N 109.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.3N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.1N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 109.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 140235 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...ILEANA SKIRTING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 109.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 109.3 West. Ileana is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A steady northward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is forecast to move near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this evening, and over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ileana is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California Sur. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area in the southern Baja California Peninsula through this evening and into early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...ILEANA SKIRTING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 8:00 PM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 23.5, -109.3 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 00:02:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 21:28:46 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 23:49:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 21:28:46 GMT

Issued at 500 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 132347 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 500 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 109.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 109.4 West. Ileana is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow northward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is forecast to move near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this evening, and over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ileana is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area in southern Baja California Peninsula through this evening and into early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 5:00 PM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 23.0, -109.4 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ileana, located near the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 20:49:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 21:28:46 GMT