National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM MST Thu Sep 12 the center of Ileana was located near 21.2, -108.6 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 05:43:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 03:28:35 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130534
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ileana, located southeast of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Ileana are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Ileana are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 02:36:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 03:28:35 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130233 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 Ileana continues to slowly gain strength. Deep convection has been increasing near the center and in some fragmented curved bands around the central dense overcast. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 40 kt. Some of the outer bands are moving across west-central Mexico and nearing the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A north-northwestward to northward motion but at a slower pace is expected during the next few days, taking Ileana across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and into the Gulf of California this weekend. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the HCCA and TVCE aids. Some additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches Baja California and most of the models show the storm peaking in intensity in about 12 hours. Around the time the cyclone makes landfall in Baja, a pronounced increase in wind shear and intrusions of dry air, along with land interaction, should cause steady weakening. The shear is expected to increase to near 30 kt in a couple of days, and that should cause Ileana to degenerate to a remnant low by 60 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the majority of the models. Key Messages: 1. Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through the weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 21.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 22.3N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 23.7N 109.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 16/0000Z 27.9N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 130232 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 17 17(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 19 25(44) X(44) X(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 1 13(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) LA PAZ 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 130232 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 108.5W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 108.5 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and over the Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. However, weakening is expected to begin by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM MST Thu Sep 12 the center of Ileana was located near 21.0, -108.5 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 130231 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.5W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.5W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.7N 109.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.9N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 108.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122334
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Ileana, located a couple of hundred miles
southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Ileana are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Ileana are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 23:33:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 21:28:53 GMT

Issued at 500 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 122332 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 500 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...ILEANA HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 108.2W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 108.2 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the north at a slightly slower forward speed is expected Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana should pass near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur Friday and Friday night before emerging over the southern Gulf of California by early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before the storm reaches Baja California Sur. After that, gradual weakening is forecast while the cyclone is near or over land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...ILEANA HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE ON FRIDAY... As of 5:00 PM MST Thu Sep 12 the center of Ileana was located near 20.5, -108.2 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 122043 CCA TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 2...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 Corrected for rainfall statement ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ILEANA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ILEANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 108.0W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz to San Evaristo. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 108.0 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the north at a slightly slower forward speed is expected Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana should pass near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur Friday and Friday night before emerging over the southern Gulf of California late Friday night or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours until Ileana reaches Baja California Sur. After that, some weakening is possible while the cyclone is near or over land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ILEANA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ILEANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 2:00 PM MST Thu Sep 12 the center of Ileana was located near 19.9, -108.0 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 20:39:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 21:28:53 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 122038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 The overall cloud pattern as seen in GOES-18 visible and infrared imagery does not appear to have changed very much from earlier today. While the RMW still seems to be a bit large, the cyclone displays a large area of cold cloud tops with some evidence of curved banding. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T-2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, while recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 33 to 42 kt. Based on the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Ileana with an initial intensity estimate of 35 kt. The initial motion estimate is north-northwest, or 340/8 kt, which is a bit faster than before. The overall synoptic steering pattern is unchanged in the models from earlier. A deep-layer trough located over the western United States will continue to steer the cyclone toward the north-northwest through Friday, bringing the system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that time, this trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause steering currents to weaken. This evolution should induce a slower motion toward the north, likely over the waters of the southern Gulf of California. There were no major changes to the guidance for the first 36 to 48 h of the forecast, and very little change was made to the previous official forecast. Thereafter, the guidance is a bit farther west, with some of the models keeping the cyclone moving north-northwestward over the Gulf of California rather than moving inland over mainland Mexico. The NHC forecast was only nudged slightly west of the previous forecast, not as far west as the consensus aids during the 48 to 96 h time period. Ileana is currently located within an environment of warm ocean waters, moderate vertical wind shear, and within a fairly moist low- to mid-level troposphere. However, very dry air is evident on water vapor imagery to the northwest of the cyclone. These conditions are unlikely to change before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur on Friday, and the NHC forecast shows some strengthening before then. Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some weakening. When the center reaches the Gulf of California, the sea surface temperatures are quite warm. While some restrengthening is possible after the cyclone emerges back over water, Ileana will encounter increasing westerly wind shear and drier air by hour 48, so it won't have much time to restrengthen. After that time, weakening is expected as Ileana's convection is sheared off, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in about 72 h. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the cyclone becoming a remnant low a bit earlier around hour 60. Although the cyclone will likely dissipate prior to 96 h, a 96 h point is carried as a remnant low for continuity. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 19.9N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 21.1N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 22.7N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 24.1N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 15/0600Z 26.3N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 27.2N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 29.4N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 081 FOPZ14 KNHC 122038 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 30(30) 9(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 34(34) 11(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 122037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.0W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.0W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.1N 108.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.7N 109.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.1N 110.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.3N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.2N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N 111.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 108.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

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