National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1100 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 121745 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 1100 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 107.7W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from La Paz southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Nine-E. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 107.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected through early Friday, followed by a turn toward the north and a slight decrease in forward speed by Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone should pass near or over Baja California Sur Friday or Friday night before emerging over the southern Gulf of California late Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and the depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm later today. After that, slight additional strengthening is possible before the system reaches the southern Baja California peninsula. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine-E is expected to produce 4-6 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, the system is forecast to produce 4-6 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, the system may produce between 6-8 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Nine-E will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 AM MST Thu Sep 12 the center of Nine-E was located near 19.5, -107.7 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121712
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-
developed Tropical Depression Nine-E, located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 566 WTPZ24 KNHC 121530 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.6W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.6W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 107.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:00:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:34:50 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 121459 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the growing area of deep convection associated with the low pressure system off the coast of west-central Mexico has been quite persistent with increased banding noted over the past 6 to 12 h. The subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is T-2.0/30 kt, and on this basis, the system is upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. The initial motion is an uncertain northwest, or 325/6 kt. There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the initial position of the center, but it appears to be near the eastern edge of the convection, based on recent microwave imagery. A deep-layer trough located over the western United States will steer the cyclone toward the north-northwest over the next 24 to 36 h, bringing the system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that time, the deep-layer trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause steering currents to weaken. This pattern will likely induce a slower motion toward the north, likely over the waters of the southern Gulf of California. The cyclone could approach the coast of northern Sinaloa or Sonora Saturday night into Sunday. The track forecast guidance is in good agreement for the first 48 h, but then starts to diverge a bit while the system is over the southern Gulf of California. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Due to some uncertainty in the track beyond that time, coastal residents of the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Sonora should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Depression Nine-E is currently located within an environment of warm ocean waters, low to moderate vertical wind shear, and within a fairly moist low- to mid-level troposphere. However, very dry air is evident on water vapor imagery to the northwest of the cyclone. These conditions are unlikely to change before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur, and the NHC forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm later today. Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some temporary weakening. However, water temperatures in the Gulf of California are quite warm, so some restrengthening is possible after the cyclone emerges back over water. The NHC intensity forecast is near the higher end of the intensity guidance. Beyond 60 h, westerly wind shear is expected to increase while the cyclone moves into a drier environment. Even if the system is still over water at that time, the cyclone is likely to begin weakening. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery products show the cyclone losing its convection around 72 h. The NHC forecast shows weakening at that time, with the system becoming a remnant low beyond 72 h. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Nine-E will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 19.2N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 121458 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 14(14) 24(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 11(11) 25(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 9(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 121458 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 107.6W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern portion of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe southward on the west coast and La Paz southward on the east coast. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of Baja California Sur north of La Paz to San Evaristo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from La Paz southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Nine-E. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 107.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through early Friday, followed by a turn toward the north and a slight decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone should pass near or over Baja California Sur Friday or Friday night before emerging over the southern Gulf of California late Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and the depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm later today, with some slight additional strengthening possible before the system reaches the southern Baja California peninsula. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine-E is expected to produce 4-6 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, the system is forecast to produce 4-6 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, the system may produce between 6-8 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Nine-E will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM MST Thu Sep 12 the center of Nine-E was located near 19.2, -107.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.6W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.6W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 107.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN NNNN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located less than 200 miles southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or
tonight. Interests in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of this
system. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches will likely be required
for some of those locations later this morning. Regardless of
development heavy rainfall is likely across portions of those
locations.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120535
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves
slowly northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and
toward the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and
west-central Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in the
southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112347
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles off
the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days as the system moves slowly
northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and toward the
Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and west-central
Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in the southern Baja
California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest
of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms stretching from the coast of Mexico and
extending offshore for several hundred miles. This activity is a
little better organized this afternoon, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system
begins moving north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern
Mexico and towards the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of
southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure system continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the coast of
southwestern Mexico extending offshore for several hundred miles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the latter part of the week while it moves generally
north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and
towards the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and
west-central Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

099
ABPZ20 KNHC 110544
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the coast of
southwestern Mexico extending offshore for several hundred miles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the latter part of the week while it moves generally
north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and
towards the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and
west-central Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

519
ABPZ20 KNHC 102302
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the coast of
southwestern Mexico extending offshore for several hundred miles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the latter part of the week while it moves generally
north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and
towards the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and
west-central Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101740
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is developing a couple hundred miles
to the south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form during the latter part of the week while it moves generally
north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and
towards the Baja California Peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101112
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the next day or
two, just to the south of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form during the latter part of the week while it moves
generally north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 100528
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 9 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the middle part
of the week, just to the south of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form during the latter part of the week while it moves
generally north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart