Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 10

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map
3 months ago
Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025 536 WTPZ44 KNHC 150255 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025 Dalila is likely near its peak intensity, with little change in organization evident since the previous advisory package. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65 knots and 55 knots, respectively. Objective estimates ranged from 45 to 57 knots, while an ASCAT pass earlier in the day showed numerous 50 knot wind barbs. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 knots. Dalila is now heading toward the west-northwest, or 295/10 knots. A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday, as Dalila is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A westward to slightly south of due west motion is then forecast Sunday night through dissipation as Dalila moves over much cooler water. The current forecast shows Dalila becoming a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night, and dissipating by Tuesday. The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory, and generally in the middle of the various track aids. Dalila should begin to weaken later tonight as some drier mid-level air evident in water vapor imagery begins to impact the system. More steady weakening is then forecast Sunday onward as the system moves over much cooler water and into a progressively drier mid-level environment. The latest intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and in good agreement with the intensity consensus guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.6N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.9N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 17.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 17.8N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 17.8N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map
3 months ago
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 150255 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0300 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MANZANILLO 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 10

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map
3 months ago
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 150254 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0300 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.1W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 100SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.1W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 107.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.8N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 106.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 15/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 10

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map
3 months ago
Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150255 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...DALILA CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 106.1W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning east of Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.1 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to remain offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Dalila is likely near its peak intensity and will begin to gradually weaken later tonight or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 9a

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map
3 months ago
Issued at 600 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 824 WTPZ34 KNHC 142342 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 600 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...DALILA CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 105.2W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 105.2 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual westward turn is expected tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to remain offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Dalila is likely near its peak intensity and will gradually begin to weaken by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs/Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map
3 months ago
511
ABPZ20 KNHC 142329
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located offshore of the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of the low, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while moving
westward to west-northwestward just offshore of the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map
3 months ago
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 319 FOPZ14 KNHC 142033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 2100 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 12(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/KELLY
NHC Webmaster
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
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