National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...HECTOR FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM HST Tue Aug 27 the center of Hector was located near 18.4, -132.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 280833 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 132.0W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 132.0W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 131.6W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.5N 133.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.6N 135.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.6N 138.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.5N 141.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 132.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280533
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hector, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280507
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hector, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 02:34:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 03:34:57 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 280233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Hector this evening continues to produce a large area of deep convection, though this activity is struggling to become better organized and wrap around the circulation center, possibly due to continued 15-20 kt westerly shear helping to entrain very dry mid-level air near its center. Subjective and objective intensity estimates remain largely unchanged this evening, and the initial intensity will remain 45 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm continues to move off to the west-northwest at 285/10 kt. The mid-level ridge currently steering Hector is expected to weaken somewhat as a mid- to upper-level weakness forms north of Hector. However, the cyclone is also likely to become more vertically shallow and thus steered more by a low-level ridge that will remain in place to the north. Thus, the track forecast shows Hector bending back more westward over the next several days. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. The overall environment near Hector currently is not all that favorable for much additional strengthening. The current moderate shear is not forecast to let up much as Hector also moves over the cold wake left behind by Gilma, which itself has dramatically weakened as it encountered less favorable conditions. Thus, weakening continues to be forecast with Hector, in good agreement with the intensity guidance. Both the GFS and ECMWF still show the cyclone losing its remaining organized convection after 48 hours, and the NHC forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low before it crosses into the Central Pacific basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 18.2N 131.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.4N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 18.6N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 18.6N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 18.5N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1200Z 18.4N 142.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 280233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 ...HECTOR FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 131.0W ABOUT 1400 MI...2255 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 131.0 West. Hector is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with a turn more westward is anticipated over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days and Hector is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...HECTOR FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 PM HST Tue Aug 27 the center of Hector was located near 18.2, -131.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 280232 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 131.0W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 131.0W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 130.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.4N 132.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.6N 134.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.6N 137.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.5N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.4N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 131.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272307
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hector, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 272036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Hector has shown a bit of a convective comeback today with the well-defined center tucking in along the edge of the growing deep convection. Both TAFB and SAB's subjective classifications of Hector's intensity have gone up to a T3.0/45 kt, and the SATCON indicates 42 kt, which are the basis for boosting the maximum winds back to 45 kt for this advisory. However, it is not anticipated that Hector will continue to intensify. The combination of moderate westerly vertical shear, lukewarm 26C SSTs, and a fairly dry low-level atmosphere should cause a gradual weakening of the system. The simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and EC suggests that deep convection will cease in about two days, so a remnant low transition should occur starting in 48 hr. The global models also suggest that Hector will open up into a trough in around three days, so dissipation is shown at 72 hr. All of the statistical and numerical guidance is in agreement with this intensity forecast. Hector is moving toward the west-northwest today at around 10 kt. As the system becomes increasingly shallow, it should be steered by the low-level trades toward the west at the same forward speed. The global and regional models are in close agreement with this scenario and little change was made to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 17.8N 129.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 18.1N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 18.3N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 18.4N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 18.4N 138.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0600Z 18.3N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 20:35:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 21:34:44 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 386 FOPZ13 KNHC 272035 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 272034 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 ...HECTOR STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 129.8W ABOUT 1335 MI...2145 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 129.8 West. Hector is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The system is expected to turn on Wednesday toward the west at a similar forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and it is anticipated that Hector will weaken to a tropical depression by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Landsea

...HECTOR STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... As of 11:00 AM HST Tue Aug 27 the center of Hector was located near 17.8, -129.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 272033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 129.8W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 129.8W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 129.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.1N 131.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.3N 133.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.4N 135.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.4N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.3N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 129.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271717
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hector, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. The National Hurricane Center has
issued its final advisory on Hurricane Gilma, located several
hundred miles east of the Hawaiian Islands. Future information on
Gilma will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
beginning at 1100 AM HST.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Future Public Advisories on Gilma will be issued under AWIPS header
HFOTCPCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.
Future Forecast/Advisories on Gilma will be issued under AWIPS
header HFOTCMCP2 and WMO header WTPA22 PHFO.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 14:49:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 15:28:45 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 652 WTPZ42 KNHC 271448 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Gilma is unraveling quickly. The center is now exposed, with all the convection off to the east, thanks to westerly vertical wind shear, which is finally taking a toll on the cyclone. Current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 90 and 77 kt, respectively, due to constraints. Recent objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 55 to 69 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt for this advisory as a blend of the data. Gilma has sped up a bit and is now moving westward, or 270/11 kt. A subtropical ridge north of Gilma should continue to steer the system generally westward to west-northwestward, with a slight increase in forward speed over the next day or so. The NHC forecast has been adjusted very slightly to the south of the previous track prediction and is in best agreement with the TCVE consensus aid. Stronger westerly vertical wind shear and the entrainment of dry and stable environmental air are taking a toll on Gilma. As a result, Gilma's center is now exposed, with the convective area becoming displaced farther to the east of the low-level center. The areal coverage and intensity of the convection to the east of the center has also been decreasing over the past several hours. Therefore, intensity estimates for Gilma have been rapidly decreasing. Gilma is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today. Although Gilma is likely to become a low-end tropical storm in 24-36 h, some model guidance suggests that the cyclone may continue to have pulsing deep convection, which should be enough to maintain some tropical storm force winds in the northern semi-circle through Thursday. After that, westerly wind shear is forecast to increase even more, which should cause Gilma to lose its convection and become a remnant low sometime around Thursday night. It is possible that Gilma could become a remnant low sooner than forecast. Future information on this system can be found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1100 AM HST. Future Tropical Cyclone Discussions will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.5N 140.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.6N 142.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 18.9N 144.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 19.4N 146.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 19.9N 149.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 20.3N 151.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 20.8N 153.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z 22.2N 158.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown