National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...HECTOR A BIT STRONGER... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Aug 26 the center of Hector was located near 16.2, -124.9 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 261437 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 124.9W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 124.9W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 124.5W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.6N 126.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.1N 128.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.4N 130.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.6N 132.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N 134.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.7N 137.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 17.5N 142.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 124.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261118
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands and on Tropical
Storm Hector, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Hector are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Hector are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 08:36:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 09:34:58 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 759 WTPZ43 KNHC 260832 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Hector has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm remains sheared with the low-level center located near the northern edge of the main area of deep convection as seen in microwave images. The latest objective and subjective Dvorak estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and a recent ASCAT-C pass showed a swath of 35-40 kt winds to the east of the center. Based on all of this information, the initial intensity is again held at 40 kt. The storm is moving westward (280 degrees) at 8 kt, and a continued relatively slow westward to west-northwestward motion should persist for another day or two. Thereafter, a slightly faster westward motion is forecast as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. There is some along-track spread in the guidance, but most of the models show a similar theme. Little change was made to the previous NHC track, and this one lies fairly close to the various consensus models. Hector is currently experiencing some northerly wind shear. The shear should decrease a little during the next couple of days, which could allow Hector to gain some strength. However, the strengthening will likely be tempered due to Hector passing over Gilma's cool wake. As Hector nears the central Pacific basin in a few days, the models show the storm moving into a region of stronger shear and drier air, which should end the opportunity for strengthening and induce weakening. The NHC forecast shows Hector becoming a remnant low by day 5, but most of the global models depict this transition occurring sooner than that. The intensity forecast is nudged downward from the previous one, but still lies at the high end of the latest model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 16.3N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.6N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.0N 127.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 17.4N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 17.7N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 17.8N 133.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 17.9N 135.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 17.6N 140.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 17.0N 146.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 08:32:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 09:29:05 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260832 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 10 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260832 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.9W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.9W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.4W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.6N 125.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.0N 127.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.4N 129.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.7N 131.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.8N 133.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.9N 135.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 17.6N 140.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.0N 146.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 123.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 260832 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...HECTOR COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 123.9W ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 123.9 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HECTOR COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... As of 11:00 PM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Hector was located near 16.3, -123.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 260831 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X 12(12) 32(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 140W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 37(55) X(55) X(55) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 1(18) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260831 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 This evening's satellite presentation consists of a ragged partially obscured eye with a small inner core open in the south semi-circle. Gilma's cloud pattern continues to deteriorate slowly and has shed most of the associated convective bands with the exception of fragmented curved band wrapping in from the south. The initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt and is based on the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and a blend of the UW-CIMSS ADT, AiDT, and DMINT objective estimates, yielding 83 kt. Water vapor imagery and global model RH/700mb fields indicate that the cyclone is moving toward a dry, stable air mass, indicative of a large low-level stratocumulus cloud deck intruding from the northwest in the GOES-18 Proxy-VIS images. Subsequently, the statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS indicated a mid-level/700-500mb RH of 42 percent. This inhibiting thermodynamic contribution, along with increasing west-to-west-southwesterly shear noted in the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance, particularly beyond 36 hrs, should cause Gilma to weaken at a quicker rate through day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is a compromise of the Decay-SHIPS and the IVCN intensity consensus and shows Gilma degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone in 4 days. Gilma's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/8 kt, and is moving in the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending westward across the tropical-eastern Pacific from northwestern Mexico. The global and regional models are fairly clustered together and indicate a slightly to the right of the initial track motion, or west-northwestward beyond the 60 hr period, and the official forecast follows suit. Along-track differences continue to be a model inconsistency, but following the skilled TVCE and HCCA consensus models have been the best track forecast solution so far. Gilma's 50 kt wind radii have been slightly adjusted based on a 0559 UTC METOP-C ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.1N 135.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.3N 137.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 18.5N 138.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.7N 140.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.0N 143.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 19.4N 145.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 19.8N 147.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 20.6N 151.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 31/0600Z 21.6N 155.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260830 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 135.9W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 135SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 135.9W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 135.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.3N 137.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 138.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.7N 140.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.0N 143.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.4N 145.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.8N 147.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.6N 151.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 21.6N 155.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 135.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 260830 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 135.9W ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 135.9 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days with some increase in forward speed Tuesday evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, Gilma is forecast to remain a hurricane as it approaches the central Pacific basin. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Gilma was located near 18.1, -135.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

166
ABPZ20 KNHC 260512
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands and on Tropical
Storm Hector, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Hector are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Hector are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 02:44:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 03:34:56 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 02:42:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 03:29:02 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 293 WTPZ43 KNHC 260241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Hector remains a sheared tropical storm this evening. Recent microwave imagery from AMSR2 and GMI showed the low-level circulation on the northern edge of the deep convection, with a rain band extending to the south. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45-kt and T2.5/35-kt, respectively. The initial intensity remains at 40 kt, representing a blend of these estimates. The storm is moving along the southern side of mid-level ridge at an estimated 275/10 kt. The ridge should be the dominant steering feature for the majority of the forecast period, and Hector should generally move westward to west-northwestward through the end of the week. There is a bit of along-track spread in the model guidance, with the European model suggesting a faster forward motion compare to the American global and regional models. The latest track forecast is slightly slower than the previous prediction and close to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. Environmental conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the next couple of days. The deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to be light-to-moderate with sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. By mid-week, most global models show drier mid-level air wrapping around the circulation and increasing vertical wind shear. These conditions, and possibly the cold wake of Hurricane Gilma, should lead to steady weakening and most guidance shows Hector losing its deep convection by the end of forecast period. The NHC intensity prediction is similar to earlier advisory, but now shows Hector as a remnant low by day 5. The forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance envelope, closest to the regional model HWRF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.2N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 16.5N 124.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.9N 126.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 17.3N 128.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 17.6N 130.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 18.0N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 18.0N 135.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 18.1N 140.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 17.6N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 233 FOPZ13 KNHC 260241 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 8 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) X(22) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI