National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 961 FOPZ12 KNHC 260240 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 140W 34 X 4( 4) 40(44) 11(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 44(51) 3(54) X(54) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 603 WTPZ23 KNHC 260241 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.2W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.2W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 122.9W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 124.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.9N 126.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.3N 128.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.6N 130.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.0N 135.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 18.1N 140.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 17.6N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 123.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 602 WTPZ33 KNHC 260241 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...HECTOR HEADING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 123.2W ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 123.2 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a west-northwestward to westward motion at about the same forward speed is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...HECTOR HEADING WESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Hector was located near 16.2, -123.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 331 WTPZ42 KNHC 260240 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Gilma is a compact hurricane with a small eye noted in both infrared satellite imagery and a recent 0039 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass. The microwave imagery showed that the convection associated with Gilma has eroded over the southern semicircle, likely due to an increase in shear and dry air intrusion. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt, which is a blend of the latest objective and subjective intensity estimates. It should be noted that the range of the satellite intensity estimates is atypically large and is around 75 kt on the low side to around 100 kt at the upper end. Westerly shear over Gilma is forecast to increase to moderate levels during the next 24 hours, and this along with nearby dry mid-level air and slightly lower SSTs are expected to cause gradual weakening during the next couple of days. Around 72 hours a more substantial increase in vertical wind shear is anticipated and this should result in a faster rate of weakening. The global models suggest the system is likely to struggle to produce organized deep convection by day 4, and Gilma is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone around that time. Gilma has been moving just north of due west (275/8 kt) during the past 12 hours. A mid-level ridge to the north of Gilma should continue to steer the storm on a westward to west-northwestward heading throughout much of this week. The track guidance is in good agreement during the next 48-72 hours, but there is greater spread in Gilma's forward speed at days 4 and 5. This is related to how long Gilma remains vertically coherent. The models that weaken the cyclone more quickly favor a faster forward speed later in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is a little faster at 96 and 120 h to be closer to the latest consensus aids. Otherwise, the new track forecast is essentially an update of the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 18.1N 135.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.2N 136.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 18.4N 138.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 18.6N 139.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 18.9N 141.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 19.2N 143.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 19.6N 145.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 20.3N 149.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 31/0000Z 21.1N 153.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 911 WTPZ22 KNHC 260239 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 135.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..165NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 135.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 134.7W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.2N 136.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.4N 138.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.6N 139.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 141.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.2N 143.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.6N 145.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.3N 149.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 21.1N 153.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 135.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 910 WTPZ32 KNHC 260239 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...GILMA EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE IT NEARS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 135.1W ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 135.1 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, Gilma is forecast to remain a hurricane as it approaches the central Pacific basin. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown

...GILMA EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE IT NEARS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 5:00 PM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Gilma was located near 18.1, -135.1 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

522
ABPZ20 KNHC 252330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located about midway between the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula and the Hawaiian Islands and on newly formed
Tropical Storm Hector, located well west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Hector are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Hector are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 20:44:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 21:35:18 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 20:44:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 21:29:17 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 252043 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 GOES-18 satellite images indicate that Gilma's eye continues to become more cloud-filled and less well-defined. Microwave images from earlier this morning showed a better-defined eye at that time. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T-5.5/102 kt. The UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates have also decreased from 6 hours ago, and range from about 77 to 104 kt. The initial intensity has been lowered to 100 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of the data. A combination of dry environmental air and marginal SSTs are likely the reasons why Gilma has weakened some today. Gilma should continue to move over SSTs near or just above 26C for another 24 h before it reaches slightly cooler waters. Gilma is still located within an environment of low vertical wind shear but is forecast to move into 15 kt of westerly vertical wind shear by early Monday which is expected to cause the storm to weaken. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is very near the intensity consensus aids. The forecast shows steady weakening by about 15 kt per day. By day 4, Gilma should move into an area of moderate to strong west-southwesterly vertical wind shear, which should strip away any remaining convection. Therefore, the forecast calls for Gilma to become a remnant low by day 5. Gilma has been moving due west over the past 12 h, or 270/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge should continue to steer Gilma between west and west-northwest for the next several days. The NHC track forecast is nearly on top of the previous prediction and is close to a blend of the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids through 72 h. The NHC forecast is slightly south of those consensus aids beyond 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 18.0N 134.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.1N 135.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 18.3N 137.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 18.5N 139.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 18.7N 140.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 19.0N 142.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 19.4N 144.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 20.0N 147.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 20.6N 152.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 252040 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 23(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 42(46) 6(52) X(52) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 252040 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 134.3W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 134.3W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.1N 135.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.3N 137.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 139.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.7N 140.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.0N 142.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.4N 144.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.0N 147.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.6N 152.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 134.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 252040 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...GILMA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 134.3W ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 134.3 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual to steady weakening is expected through the next several days although Gilma should remain a hurricane into Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

...GILMA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Gilma was located near 18.0, -134.3 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Two ASCAT overpasses recently sampled the tropical disturbance well to the southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. These scatterometer observations revealed that the system now has a well-defined surface circulation with maximum winds of around 40 kt. Although some higher wind speeds were noted, these vectors are believed to be rain-contaminated and a little inflated. Based on these data, the system is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hector. The low-level center is situated near the northern edge of a rather ragged-looking area of deep convection, and banding features are not well-defined at this time. The earlier center fixes from conventional satellite imagery had considerable spread, making the initial motion a rather uncertain 270/10 kt. A mid-level ridge should be maintained to the north of Hector for the next several days. Therefore, a west-northwestward or westward track is forecast during the upcoming 5-day period. The NHC track forecast is close to the simple model consensus. Over the next couple of days, Hector should be moving through an environment that is marginally conducive for strengthening. The tropical cyclone is likely to pass near or over the wake of Hurricane Gilma, which could limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS prediction, and shows only modest strengthening over the next few days followed by gradual weakening. It should be noted that some of the global models, such as the ECMWF, suggest that Hector could weaken faster than shown here during the latter part of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.9N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 16.2N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 16.9N 128.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 17.3N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 17.7N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 18.0N 144.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 252034 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 4 19(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 5(21) X(21) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 252033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.5W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.5W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.2N 123.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.9N 128.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.3N 130.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.7N 132.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 18.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 122.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 252033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...NEW EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPS WELL OUT AT SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 122.5W ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 122.5 West. The storm is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a west-northwestward to westward motion at about the same forward speed is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Pasch