National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 14:48:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 15:34:26 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271445 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Hector has become less organized during the past 12-24 hours. The center is now located near the western edge of a ragged convective mass. Objective and subjective T-numbers have decreased and the initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt, which is a blend of these estimates. The environment ahead of Gilma does not look conducive. Moderate westerly shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal sea surface temperatures should cause gradual weakening over the next 36-48 hours. Hector will be moving over the cool wake of Gilma and this could result in a faster rate of weakening than indicated below. The system is now forecast to become a remnant low in about 60 hours, and dissipate by day 4. Hector is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. A turn to the west is expected during the next day or so as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of Hector. The latest NHC track forecast is near or slightly north of the previous forecast due to a more northward initial position, but it still lies near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 17.6N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.0N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 18.3N 132.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 18.4N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 18.4N 136.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 18.4N 139.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 18.3N 142.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 271445 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X 16(16) 11(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 271445 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 271445 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 ...GILMA RAPIDLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... ...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 140.7W ABOUT 945 MI...1515 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 140.7 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected today, with steady weakening continuing after that. Gilma is forecast to weaken to a remnant low by Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Future information on Gilma can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1100 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

...GILMA RAPIDLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... ...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Aug 27 the center of Gilma was located near 18.5, -140.7 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 271444 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 128.7W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 128.7W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 128.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.0N 130.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.3N 132.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.4N 134.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.4N 136.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.4N 139.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.3N 142.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 128.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 271444 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 ...HECTOR CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 128.7W ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 128.7 West. Hector is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. A westward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast tonight through the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated today, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin tonight and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown

...HECTOR CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Aug 27 the center of Hector was located near 17.6, -128.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 271444 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 140.7W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 140.7W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 140.1W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N 142.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.9N 144.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.4N 146.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.9N 149.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.3N 151.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.8N 153.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 22.2N 158.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 140.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON GILMA CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP2...WMO HEADER WTPA22 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271115
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located several hundred miles east of the Hawaiian Islands
and on Tropical Storm Hector, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:35:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 09:29:26 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 270833 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Satellite imagery depicts Gilma has started to weaken, and become less organized over the last several hours. Infrared images indicate that the previous well-defined eye has filled, and cloud tops have started to warm. The system is starting to encounter some westerly wind shear as well, as evident by a sharper sheared edge on the western side of the cyclone. A SSMIS microwave pass around 03Z depicts the eyewall has started to become less pronounced on the southern side, and may even be open. Subjective and objective intensity estimates have decreased from the previous advisory and range between 85-95 kt. Given the satellite degradation and a blend of the intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt for this advisory. Gilma is moving westward at 275/9 kt. A subtropical ridge should continue to steer the system generally westward to west-northwestward, with a gradual increase in forward speed over the next several days. On this track, Gilma should enter the Central Pacific basin by tomorrow. The track guidance continues to be fairly well clustered, with the main difference being the forward speed. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and lies near the simple consensus aids. While Gilma has fought off the marginal environment and maintained hurricane status longer than anticipated, it seems the atmospheric and oceanic conditions are becoming increasingly unfavorable. Westerly wind shear is starting to increase, as is evident in the satellite depiction, and is forecast to increase throughout the next several days. The system is also starting to move into a drier and more stable airmass with sub 26C sea-surface temperatures. This will result in steady weakening throughout the forecast period. Model simulated satellite suggest that Gilma will struggle to produce deep convection around 72 h and is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at that time. Global models also indicate that Gilma should dissipate into an open trough by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous and lies near the simple and corrected consensus intensity aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 18.5N 139.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.6N 140.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 19.8N 147.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 20.7N 152.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0600Z 21.8N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 270833 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 145W 34 1 6( 7) 42(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 145W 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 23(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 270833 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 ...GILMA SLIGHTLY WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 139.2W ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 139.2 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast over the next few days. Gilma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the central Pacific basin on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...GILMA SLIGHTLY WEAKER... As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Aug 26 the center of Gilma was located near 18.5, -139.2 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 270832 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 139.2W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 139.2W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 138.7W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.6N 140.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.8N 147.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.7N 152.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 21.8N 156.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 139.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:32:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 09:35:26 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270831 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Hector appears a little less organized tonight. Infrared satellite images indicate that the convective pattern has become ragged with a lack of banding features. Accordingly, the objective and subjective Dvorak classifications have decreased some, but blending all of the estimates still yields an intensity estimate of 45 kt. The storm is ingesting some dry air and appears to be feeling some influences of cool upwelled waters from Hurricane Gilma that passed through the area a few days ago. It is starting to look increasingly likely that Hector is missing its window to strengthen any further. Weakening will likely commence in a day or so when the shear begins to increase, and Hector is now forecast to become a remnant low by day 3. This forecast remains near the high end of the model guidance. Hector is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt. A turn to the west with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. No big changes were made to the track forecast, and this one lies fairly close to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.1N 127.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 17.5N 129.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 17.8N 131.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 17.9N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 18.0N 135.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 18.0N 138.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 18.0N 140.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0600Z 18.0N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270831 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI