National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 270831 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 ...HECTOR CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 127.5W ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 127.5 West. Hector is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster westward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible on Tuesday, but gradual weakening is forecast after that. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HECTOR CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Aug 26 the center of Hector was located near 17.1, -127.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270830 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.5W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.5W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.5N 129.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N 131.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.9N 133.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.0N 135.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 138.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.0N 140.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 18.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 127.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270508
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands and on Tropical
Storm Hector, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 02:47:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 03:34:46 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 358 WTPZ42 KNHC 270247 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Gilma remains a resilient hurricane over the far western portion of the Eastern Pacific. Its eye is distinct and surrounded by a healthy ring of cold -60 to -70C cloud tops. Both a GMI and AMSR2 microwave pass received after the prior advisory also highlight Gilma's well-organized structure, primarily in the form of a single closed eyewall. However, the eyewall does appear to be weaker on its southern side, which might be a harbinger of increasing westerly vertical wind shear finally beginning to impact the inner-core structure. In the meantime, subjective and objective intensity estimates are largely unchanged from earlier this afternoon, and the initial intensity is held at 95 kt for this advisory. Gilma continues on a just north of due westward track, though a little faster than earlier at 280/10 kt. A prominent subtropical ridge to its north should continue to steer the hurricane generally westward to west-northwestward with a gradual increase in forward motion over the next several days. On this track, Gilma should enter the Central Pacific basin by tomorrow morning. The deep-layer ridging does weaken towards the end of the forecast period, but Gilma will also likely become more vertically shallow at that time. The track guidance this cycle once again is a bit faster than the prior one, and the NHC track forecast is also a little faster than the previous one, blending the consensus aids TCVE and HCCA with the prior track forecast. While Gilma has defied the odds and remained stronger than forecasted over the past couple of days, there is evidence that westerly vertical wind shear is beginning to impinge on the hurricane. SHIPS guidance shows this shear gradually increasing as Gilma also traverses a very dry mid-level environment and only marginal 25-26 C sea-surface temperatures. Assuming this dry air is ultimately entrained into its inner core, weakening should begin soon. After 48-60 h, the EC-SHIPS shows the shear increasing to more than 30 kt, which will likely continue this weakening trend even as Gilma begins to move over warmer waters again. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the prior advisory, just a little on the high side of the intensity consensus early on. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest the system will cease to produce organized convection after 72 h, with remnant low status forecast after that time, and final dissipation by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 18.5N 138.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.6N 140.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 18.8N 142.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 19.1N 144.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 19.6N 146.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 20.1N 148.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 20.5N 151.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 21.7N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270246 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270246 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Hector appears to be holding steady. Deep convection has rotated to the northeast of the surface circulation and there is outflow present in the eastern half of the storm. An SSMIS microwave pass from 0024 UTC suggests that while the storm may be less tilted, the area of deep convection has decreased. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on an earlier ASCAT pass. The wind radii have also been adjusted outward based on the scatterometer data. The cyclone is moving westward at 10 kt along the southern side of a low- to mid-level ridge. This general westward to west-northwestward motion, with a slight increase in forward speed, should continue through the entire forecast period. The latest forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous prediction. Model guidance is showing that the window for potential intensification should be ending in a day or so. Weak-to-moderate shear and sufficiently warm ocean waters could allow Hector to strengthen a little more within a day, but by Thursday, all guidance suggests that deteriorating environmental conditions should induce gradual weakening. This weakening could also be hastened by Hector's passage over Hurricane Gilma's cold wake. The official forecast is still on the high end of the guidance envelope and very similar to the earlier intensity forecast, but now shows Hector as a remnant low by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 16.8N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 17.2N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 17.5N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 17.8N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 17.8N 134.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 17.9N 137.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 17.8N 139.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 17.6N 145.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 18.0N 151.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270245 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 126.7W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 126.7W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 126.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.2N 128.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.5N 130.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.8N 132.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.8N 134.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.9N 137.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.8N 139.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 17.6N 145.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 18.0N 151.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 126.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 270245 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 ...HECTOR HOLDING STEADY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 126.7W ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 126.7 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a west-northwestward to westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so followed by gradual weakening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...HECTOR HOLDING STEADY... As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Aug 26 the center of Hector was located near 16.8, -126.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 02:44:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 03:28:53 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 270244 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 17 6(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X 4( 4) 39(43) 16(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 1(28) X(28) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19) X(19) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 270243 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 ...GILMA STILL A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 138.3W ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 138.3 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin soon, with a faster rate of weakening expected later this week. Gilma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the central Pacific basin on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...GILMA STILL A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Aug 26 the center of Gilma was located near 18.5, -138.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 270242 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 138.3W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 138.3W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 137.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.6N 140.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N 142.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.1N 144.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.6N 146.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.1N 148.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.5N 151.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 21.7N 155.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 138.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262328
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands and on Tropical
Storm Hector, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 20:40:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 21:35:07 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 20:38:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 21:29:08 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 262037 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Gilma's eye continues to become more symmetric with a warming eye and impressive convection surrounding the eye. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have been generally increasing over the last several hours, ranging from 85 to 96 kt. Subjective Dvorak estimates are T-5.0/90 kt from TAFB and T-5.5/102 kt from SAB. The initial intensity is set to 95 kt based on a blend of the subjective estimates. Other than the stronger initial intensity, there is no change to the environmental conditions that Gilma is expected to traverse through the forecast period. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and vertical wind shear conditions have been favorable enough for Gilma to strengthen over the past 12 h. By tonight, westerly vertical wind shear is predicted to increase to 15 to 20 kt, which should put a halt to any additional strengthening, and likely induce a slow weakening trend. Beyond 24 h, Gilma is forecast to reach slightly cooler SSTs, which should cause a faster rate of weakening in the 24-48 h time period. These factors, combined with the relatively dry and stable airmass that Gilma will continue to be embedded in, is likely to cause the cyclone to lose its convection and become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days, as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. The global models then show the remnant low gradually weakening through day 5, possibly opening up into a trough around that time. The new NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous forecast for the first 24 h due to the stronger initial intensity and relatively unchanged after that, and lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/7 kt. The track guidance is faster this cycle, following the global model solutions. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous forecast through 36 h, then shows a faster motion toward the west-northwest, though not as fast as the latest consensus track models. The cross track spread in the guidance remains very low, and the NHC forecast is essentially on top of the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 18.4N 137.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 18.5N 138.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 18.7N 140.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 18.9N 143.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 19.4N 145.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 19.9N 147.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 20.3N 149.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 21.2N 154.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1800Z 22.8N 158.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch