National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1100 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 131741 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 1100 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...CENTER OF ILEANA NEARING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 109.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 109.3 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon and over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend. Recently-received satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF ILEANA NEARING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... As of 11:00 AM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 22.4, -109.3 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 14:37:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 15:28:58 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 960 WTPZ44 KNHC 131435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 Recent satellite imagery shows that Ileana is producing a large convective canopy with clouds top temperatures as cold as -80C. However, data from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas shows that the convective banding under the canopy is poorly organized and suggests that the circulation center is still broad and elongated. The various satellite intensity estimates are little changed since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The initial motion is 335/8 kt. This general motion should continue for the next 12 h or so, bringing the center across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and into the southern Gulf of California by early Saturday. After that, a slower northward to north-northwestward motion is forecast until the cyclone dissipates over the weekend. There are no significant changes to either the track forecast guidance and the forecast track. Ileana currently appears too disorganized to take advantage of the current environment of light to moderate shear, good moisture, and warm water. Thus, little change in strength is expected before landfall in Baja California Sur. When the cyclone reaches the Gulf of California, it is forecast to move into increasing westerly shear and a drier airmass, which should cause weakening despite the very warm sea surface temperatures. Based on this scenario and the intensity guidance, the intensity forecast continues to show weakening, with the cyclone forecast to become a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate by 72 hr. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of Baja California Sur during the next several hours where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 22.3N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 23.5N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1200Z 24.8N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 15/0000Z 25.8N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 26.7N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0000Z 27.6N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 131435 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 23 3(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) LA PAZ 34 4 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 674 WTPZ24 KNHC 131434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 109.3W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 109.3W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 109.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 109.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.8N 109.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.8N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.7N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.6N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 109.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 673 WTPZ34 KNHC 131434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...CENTER OF ILEANA APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 109.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 109.3 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula today and over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF ILEANA APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 8:00 AM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 22.3, -109.3 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 12:44:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 09:28:48 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 11:36:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 09:28:48 GMT

Issued at 500 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 131135 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 500 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 109.0W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 109.0 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula today and over the Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Ileana is forecast to dissipate by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California Sur. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING... As of 5:00 AM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 21.8, -109.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131112
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ileana, located southeast of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Ileana are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Ileana are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 130 FOPZ14 KNHC 130835 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 14 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SAN JOSE CABO 34 17 8(25) X(25) X(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) SAN JOSE CABO 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 131 WTPZ34 KNHC 130835 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ILEANA SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 108.9W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 108.9 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula today and over the Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Ileana is forecast to dissipate by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California Sur. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ILEANA SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING... As of 2:00 AM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 21.5, -108.9 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 08:36:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 09:28:48 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 124 WTPZ44 KNHC 130836 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 Recent passive microwave images of Ileana reveal a small area of deep convection near the center of the storm, and as a result Ileana has maintained a cold central dense overcast overnight. However, the sharp edge to the cloud pattern suggests some south-southeasterly shear is impinging on the storm. Radar data from Los Cabos show outer rainbands are spreading across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory, which is consistent with recent scatterometer data that showed several tropical-storm-force wind vectors in the southeastern quadrant of the storm. The estimated initial motion of Ileana is north-northwestward at 330/9 kt. The storm is expected to remain on this general heading in the near term, bringing the center across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and into the southern Gulf of California by early Saturday. Then, a slower northward to north-northwestward motion is forecast over the weekend. Little change was made to the updated NHC track forecast, which remains between the TVCE and HCCA aids. The structure of Ileana in microwave and radar imagery does not suggest much, if any, strengthening is likely before the storm reaches the coast of Baja California Sur. Deep-layer wind shear is forecast to substantially increase thereafter, and land interaction along with potential intrusions of dry air should induce weakening through the weekend. The increasingly hostile environmental conditions will likely make it difficult for Ileana to sustain organized deep convection while it moves northward over the Gulf of California. Thus, the updated NHC forecast shows degeneration to a remnant low at 48 h and dissipation by 72 h. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California Sur through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of Baja California Sur later this morning, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 21.5N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 22.8N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 24.2N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 26.2N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/1800Z 27.1N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 130834 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 108.9W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 108.9W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.8N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.2N 109.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.2N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.1N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1100 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 130543 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 1100 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 108.6W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 108.6 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and over the Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. However, weakening is expected to begin by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area Friday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart