National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 20:44:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 20:44:41 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 493 FOPZ14 KNHC 092038 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 2100 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 722 WTPZ44 KNHC 092038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 Moderate northeasterly shear is displacing most of Ivo's convection south of the center, and the convective mass itself has begun to shrink. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on a T3.0 classification from TAFB, and this is also supported by a recent ASCAT pass which showed a maximum of 38 kt (but is likely limited by the instrument's resolution). Continued moderate shear, gradually cooling sea surface temperatures, and a stable air mass ahead of Ivo are forecast to continue the weakening trend. GFS- and ECMWF-based simulated satellite imagery show all deep convection dissipating by 36 hours, which is when Ivo is shown degenerating into a remnant low in the official forecast. Dissipation is now expected by day 3, which is when the remnant low loses its integrity in the global model fields. Ivo has been moving westward, or 280/6 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to keep Ivo on a westward or west-northwestward track through dissipation. There is low spread among the track models, and only minor adjustments were made to the new NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 21.0N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 21.4N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 22.8N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 092037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 2100 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 113.5W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 113.5W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.4N 114.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.8N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 113.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 092037 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 ...IVO WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY LATE SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 113.5W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 113.5 West. Ivo is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...IVO WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY LATE SUNDAY... As of 2:00 PM MST Sat Aug 09 the center of Ivo was located near 21.0, -113.5 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

168
ABPZ20 KNHC 091715
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 9 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin several
hundred miles east of the Hawaiian Islands. The National Hurricane
Center is also issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo, located
over the Eastern Pacific basin a couple of hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 14:41:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 15:27:14 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 14:41:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 14:41:17 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091440 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 Ivo is being affected by moderate northeasterly shear, with its low-level center near the northern edge of the deep convection. Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are 3.5/55 kt and 3.0/45 kt, respectively, while objective numbers from UW-CIMSS range from 35-55 kt. Ivo's intensity is held at 50 kt, leaning toward the blend of CI numbers. The cyclone is expected to reach sub-26 degree Celsius waters in 12-24 hours, while at the same time the environment becomes more stable and more convergent aloft. As a result, steady weakening is anticipated, and Ivo is forecast to become post-tropical in about 36 hours when the environment becomes too hostile to support organized deep convection. The remnant low will last for a few more days after that, likely opening up into a trough by late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Ivo's position was adjusted a bit north based on recent data, which ended up shifting the entire forecast track in that direction as well. Still, the track models are tightly clustered and in good agreement that Ivo will move generally west-northwestward and then westward, steered by low- to mid-level ridging to the north. The NHC track forecast is relatively close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 21.0N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 21.4N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 21.9N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 22.4N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 11/1200Z 22.6N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z 22.7N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 22.6N 124.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 091440 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 1500 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 112.7W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 112.7W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.4N 113.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.9N 115.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.4N 117.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.6N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.7N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.6N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 112.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 091439 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 1500 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 800 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 091439 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 ...IVO FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COLDER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 112.7W ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 112.7 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster motion toward the west-northwest and then west is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Ivo is likely to become post-tropical by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...IVO FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COLDER WATERS... As of 8:00 AM MST Sat Aug 09 the center of Ivo was located near 21.0, -112.7 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

306
ABPZ20 KNHC 091116
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 9 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
redesignated Tropical Depression Henriette, located in the Central
Pacific basin several hundred miles east of the Hawaiian Islands.
The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Tropical Storm Ivo, located over the Eastern Pacific basin a couple
of hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 08:41:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 09:26:40 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 08:41:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 08:41:08 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 023 WTPZ44 KNHC 090839 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 Ivo is having intermittent bursts of deep convection since the last advisory. An ASCAT pass from 0412 UTC showed the center of the small circulation near the northeastern edge of the CDO. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have generally decreased in recent hours and the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this cycle. The storm is moving westward at 8 kt. A general westward to west-northwestward motion is anticipated through the forecast period while Ivo is steered along the southern side of a ridge positioned to its north. The track guidance has shifted poleward this cycle, and the latest official forecast lies on the southern side of the envelope between the ECMWF to its south and the simple consensus aid TVCE to its north. Ivo is currently crossing a cooling gradient of sea surface temperatures and moving towards a dry and stable airmass. The storm is expected to gradually weaken through the weekend, until it becomes a post-tropical cyclone sometime Sunday night or Monday morning. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted lower based on the decrease in initial intensity and is in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 20.6N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 20.9N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 21.3N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 21.7N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 22.0N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 11/1800Z 22.1N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 522 FOPZ14 KNHC 090839 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0900 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 219 WTPZ34 KNHC 090839 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 ...IVO HEADING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 112.4W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 112.4 West. Ivo is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast for the next few days and Ivo is expected to become post-tropical by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci