National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...IVO FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY MONDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 10 the center of Ivo was located near 21.9, -116.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 101434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 1500 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 116.1W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 116.1W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.0N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.2N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 116.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101112
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin several
hundred miles northeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Ivo,
located in the Eastern Pacific basin a few hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Aug 2025 08:35:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Aug 2025 09:27:02 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Aug 2025 08:35:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Aug 2025 08:35:48 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Aug 10 2025 029 WTPZ44 KNHC 100834 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 AM MST Sun Aug 10 2025 Ivo is weakening while it passes over the cooler waters well to the west of Baja California Sur, and its associated deep convection is gradually decreasing in coverage and intensity. Data from an excellent scatterometer overpass just before 0500 UTC showed that the maximum winds have decreased to near 35 kt. Subjective Dvorak analyses from TAFB and SAB, along with objective Dvorak values from UW-CIMSS gave a similar intensity estimate, indicating that Ivo is now at minimal tropical storm strength. Center fixes indicate that the cyclone continues to move west-northwestward, or at about 285/7 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge is predicted to remain to the north of Ivo during the next couple of days. The system is likely to turn more westward with a slight increase in forward speed in a day or so as the increasingly shallow circulation becomes steered by the low-level easterlies. The official forecast track is very similar to the one from the previous advisory. Ivo is moving over cooler waters with gradually decreasing environmental moisture. Therefore weakening should continue, and the system will likely degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours or so. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC forecast and near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 21.5N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 22.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z 23.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 23.1N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 23.0N 125.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 100834 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0900 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Aug 10 2025 286 WTPZ34 KNHC 100833 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 AM MST Sun Aug 10 2025 ...IVO WEAKENING... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 114.9W ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 114.9 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is anticipated, and Ivo is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...IVO WEAKENING... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... As of 2:00 AM MST Sun Aug 10 the center of Ivo was located near 21.5, -114.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025 408 WTPZ24 KNHC 100832 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0900 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 114.9W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 114.9W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.7N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.1N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 100513
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 9 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin several
hundred miles northeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Ivo,
located in the Eastern Pacific basin a few hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Aug 2025 02:33:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Aug 2025 03:26:35 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Aug 2025 02:33:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Aug 2025 02:33:13 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 525 WTPZ44 KNHC 100232 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 Convection associated with Ivo has continued to slowly decrease during the past 6 hours, but the cyclone's overall appearance hasn't changed drastically. The latest TAFB Dvorak Current Intensity estimate is still 45 kt, which is similar to the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON, valid around 2210 UTC (43 kt). Therefore, no change was made to the 45-kt intensity estimate for this advisory. No noteworthy changes were made to any aspect of the NHC forecast. Ivo is moving over cooler waters and into a more stable environment and is therefore forecast to gradually weaken, as shown by all of the intensity guidance. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS, ECMWF and HAFS models indicates Ivo will become post-tropical within about 36 h. Ivo's motion is now west-northwestward, still at 6 kt. All models continue to forecast that Ivo will gradually turn due west in a day or two as it weakens and is steered by the low-level flow. The model forecast agreement is very good with respect to all aspects of Ivo's evolution during the next couple of days until it dissipates early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 21.2N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 21.7N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 22.8N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 23.0N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 23.1N 124.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025 186 FOPZ14 KNHC 100231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0300 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025 144 WTPZ24 KNHC 100231 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0300 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 114.1W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 114.1W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.7N 115.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.8N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.0N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.1N 124.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 145 WTPZ34 KNHC 100231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 ...IVO EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL NEAR THE END OF THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 114.1W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 114.1 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is anticipated. Ivo is forecast to become post-tropical near the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...IVO EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL NEAR THE END OF THE WEEKEND... As of 8:00 PM MST Sat Aug 09 the center of Ivo was located near 21.2, -114.1 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

985
ABPZ20 KNHC 092310
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 9 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin several
hundred miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm
Ivo, located in the Eastern Pacific basin a few hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 20:44:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 21:27:01 GMT