National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:51:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:51:34 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 812 WTPZ43 KNHC 100850 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 The convective appearance of Cosme has changed little since the previous advisory. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, and the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 54-59 kt. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of the intensity estimates. Cosme continues to move very slowly toward the northwest, with motion estimated at 300/4 kt. A slow motion, perhaps more toward the north, should continue for at least the next 12 h since the overall steering currents are weak, due to Barbara's current position in relation to Cosme. However, as Barbara weakens, Cosme will accelerate north-northeastward in response to ridging located to the northwest of the cyclone. Very little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, and the latest forecast is near the various consensus models. Cosme is forecast to remain in favorable enough conditions for the next 24 h such that the cyclone might be able to maintain its intensity or only weaken very slowly. However, after that time, as Cosme gains latitude, it will encounter cooler water and drier air. Cosme is forecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical on Wednesday, in agreement with the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery products. The post-tropical low is then forecast to gradually weaken and dissipate by 72 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 15.3N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 15.5N 114.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 17.4N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 12/0600Z 18.7N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 378 FOPZ13 KNHC 100849 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 115W 50 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 100849 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 114.5W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 114.5W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.5N 114.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.4N 113.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.7N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 100849 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 ...COSME HOLDING STEADY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 114.5W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 114.5 West. Cosme is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a faster north-northeast motion late today through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours before weakening begins late today or tonight. Cosme is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs

...COSME HOLDING STEADY... As of 2:00 AM MST Tue Jun 10 the center of Cosme was located near 15.3, -114.5 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:49:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:49:00 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 100847 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Barbara has lost a significant portion of its convection over the past 12 hours or so. The latest current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are still in the 55-65 kt range, but the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 45-55 kt range. Based on the degraded convective appearance on geostationary satellite imagery and the latest intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt. Barbara has been moving toward the northwest a little slower than before, or 310/7 kt. Barbara is forecast to continue moving generally toward the northwest as it is steered by weak ridging to its north and Tropical Storm Cosme, located to its southwest. Only very minor adjustments have been made to the previous NHC track forecast, which lies near the various consensus models. The storm already has crossed the 26C isotherm and will continue moving over progressively colder water over the next day. The cold water will cause Barbara to continue weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous official forecast, and is near the latest intensity model consensus. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite products both show the cyclone losing its convection entirely by about 24 hours, with dissipation in 36 hours. The NHC forecast follows the scenario depicted by those models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 19.1N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 100847 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 100847 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 ...BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 108.1W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 108.1 West. Barbara is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barbara is expected to dissipate by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southernmost portions of Baja California through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs

...BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM MST Tue Jun 10 the center of Barbara was located near 19.1, -108.1 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 181 WTPZ22 KNHC 100846 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.1W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.1W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 108.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS

703
ABPZ20 KNHC 091132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Barbara, and on Tropical Storm Cosme, both located in the
eastern Pacific basin off the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Cosme are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Cosme are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Barbara, and on Tropical Storm Cosme, both located in the
eastern Pacific basin off the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Cosme are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Cosme are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 09:26:47 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:58 GMT


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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:58 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:55 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:58 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:55 GMT