National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 20:33:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 21:27:30 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 20:33:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 20:33:36 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 252032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 A recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass revealed that Juliette is now producing maximum winds around 50 kt within the southeastern quadrant. The center is well embedded beneath a persistent burst of deep convection, but interestingly, the cyclone has also been producing another semi-disconnected burst of convection to the southwest of the center. Juliette has another 24-36 hours before it reaches cooler waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere. Continued strengthening is expected in the short term, and Juliette does have the potential to become a hurricane. In fact, the latest SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices are showing a 40-45 percent change of a 25-kt increase over the next day. The NHC forecast therefore explicitly shows Juliette becoming a hurricane in 24 hours. Weakening is anticipated to begin in 36 hours, and Juliette could become post-tropical in about 3 days when it loses its deep convection. Dissipation into a trough is likely by day 5. The initial motion is west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 12 kt. Due to a break in the subtropical ridge which has developed near and to the west of the Baja California peninsula, Juliette is expected to gradually turn toward the northwest on Tuesday, and then the north-northwest by late Wednesday. The NHC largely follows a blend of the previous forecast and the Google Deep Mind model, but overall there isn't much spread in the track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 17.6N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.3N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 19.3N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 20.6N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 22.2N 120.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 23.5N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 24.5N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 29/1800Z 25.7N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 789 FOPZ15 KNHC 252032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 59 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 115W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 5 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 120W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 2 11(13) 39(52) 4(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 1(17) X(17) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 252031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.5W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.5W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.3N 116.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.3N 117.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.6N 119.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.2N 120.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.5N 122.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 25.7N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 252031 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 ...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 114.5W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 114.5 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by late Tuesday, followed by a slower north-northwestward motion beginning late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Juliette has the potential to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. An automated Mexican navy station on Clarion Island recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a gust to 50 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 2:00 PM MST Mon Aug 25 the center of Juliette was located near 17.6, -114.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

370
ABPZ20 KNHC 251748
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located in the east Pacific basin several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A trough of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is possible through the week
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
A tropical wave located southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
producing limited shower activity. Some slow development is
possible late this week into the weekend as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward across the central part of the
eastern Pacific basin at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ35
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on
Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS
header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 14:39:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 15:27:50 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251503 CCA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 CORRECTED FOR MISSING 50-KT RADII AT 24 HOURS TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.1W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.1W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.9N 114.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 116.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.2N 121.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 26.2N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 14:39:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 14:39:35 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 003 WTPZ45 KNHC 251438 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 Deep convection, with a fair amount of lightning, continues to burst over Juliette's center. There still appears to be some shear affecting the cyclone, although various diagnostics from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS suggest it has decreased to about 10 kt. Objective satellite intensity estimates are gradually increasing, and the maximum winds are estimated to now be 40 kt. With the shear now lower, steady intensification is anticipated during the next 36 hours or so while Juliette remains over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is at the top end of the guidance during this period. Weakening is forecast after 36 hours due to cooler waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere. The NHC forecast calls for Juliette to become post-tropical by Friday, although it could happen as early as Thursday. Juliette continues west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 11 kt. Due to a break in the subtropical ridge which has developed near and to the west of the Baja California peninsula, Juliette is expected to gradually turn toward the northwest on Tuesday, and then the north-northwest and north by Thursday and Friday. There is a typical amount of spread among the track guidance, and the NHC forecast takes a blend of the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, Google Deep Mind, and TVCE consensus aids. This updated forecast is not too different from the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.1N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 17.9N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.8N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 24.2N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 26.2N 122.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 251437 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 80 9(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) ISLA CLARION 50 9 8(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA CLARION 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 5 17(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 10(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 2(18) X(18) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251437 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 ...JULIETTE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 113.1W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 113.1 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast later on Tuesday, followed by a slower motion toward the north-northwest by early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, with weakening beginning on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. A wind gust to 44 mph (71 km/h) was recently reported by an automated Mexican navy station on Clarion Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...JULIETTE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 AM MST Mon Aug 25 the center of Juliette was located near 17.1, -113.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251437 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.1W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.1W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.9N 114.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 116.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.2N 121.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 26.2N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251139
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Juliette, located in the east Pacific
basin several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is likely to form in a few days well to the
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Subsequent slow development is possible late this week into the
weekend as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ35
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on
Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS
header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 08:37:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 09:27:45 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 08:37:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 08:37:19 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 264 WTPZ45 KNHC 250835 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 Since the time of the previous NHC advisory, the sheared convective burst associated with the tropical cyclone has grown larger, with a large area of cloud tops colder than -80C on GOES-West infrared imagery. Furthermore, the low level center, which had been exposed to the east of the burst, appears to have moved underneath the eastern edge of the convection. This suggests the moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear is weakening. The UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates have been steadily increasing, and are now in the 32-35 kt range. TAFB provided a subjective Dvorak estimate of 35 kt, and an ASCAT pass from 25/0441 UTC showed a few 35 kt vectors in the deep convection that might have been a bit rain-inflated. Regardless of the accuracy of the ASCAT data, given the improving satellite presentation and persistence of the large, cold convective mass, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Juliette with a 35-kt intensity. Juliette is moving west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt on the south side of a subtropical high. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest is forecast as the system is influenced by a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The model guidance has shifted to the left and a bit faster compared to the previous cycle, and so has the NHC forecast. The latest official forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) model. Spread in the model guidance increases by day 3, and the NHC forecast shows the cyclone slowing down at that time, similar to consensus aids. Environmental conditions appear favorable for Juliette to strengthen for at least 36-42 more hours. The 10-kt northeasterly vertical shear being experienced by the cyclone should diminish to single digits later today, while the system traverses warm ocean waters. By 48 h, Juliette should reach colder waters and a more stable atmosphere, and these conditions will induce weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and lies at the high end of the model guidance at 36-48 h. The reason for this is that with the shift in the forecast track to the left, Juliette should have a few additional hours to strengthen before it reaches the less favorable conditions. With the decreasing shear later today, there should be enough time for Juliette to become a high-end tropical storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 16.8N 111.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 17.5N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.4N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 19.4N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 20.6N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 21.9N 120.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 23.2N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 25.0N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 25.9N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen