3 weeks 1 day ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 820
WTPZ25 KNHC 261432
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.5W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.5W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 116.2W
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 117.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.9N 120.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.8N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.6N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 116.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 1 day ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 819
WTPZ35 KNHC 261432
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025
...JULIETTE A LITTLE STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 116.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 116.5 West. Juliette is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower
north-northwestward motion is expected late Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Although not explicitly shown in the NHC
forecast, Juliette could briefly become a hurricane today
before a weakening trend commences on Wednesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. A gust of 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported
at Clarion Island, Colima, Mexico.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 1 day ago
...JULIETTE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 the center of Juliette was located near 19.1, -116.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 1 day ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261115
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located in the east Pacific basin several hundred
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.
Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form late this week, while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this system is
possible late this week and into the weekend while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the
coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 1 day ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 08:37:18 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 09:27:11 GMT
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 1 day ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 08:37:18 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 08:37:18 GMT
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 1 day ago
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 000
WTPZ45 KNHC 260836
TCDEP5
Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Juliette's satellite appearance has remained fairly steady overnight
with curved banding mainly to the south of the center. Recent
microwave imagery shows that Juliette is still trying to develop a
small inner core, which has not become better established since the
previous advisory. Unfortunately, scatterometer missed tonight given
the small size of the system it fell within the data gap. There is a
bit of a range from subjective and objective intensity estimates
this cycle between 44 to 65 kt. Using a blend of these estimates,
the initial intensity for this advisory is held at 55 kt.
The system is moving west-northwestward at an estimated motion of
290/ 11 kt. The storm is being steered along the southwestern edge
of a mid-level ridge located to the north. A gradual turn to the
northwest then north-northwest is anticipated as a weakness in the
ridge develops over the next couple of days. The NHC forecast track
was nudged slightly to the right in the short term between the
consensus aids on the right with Google DeepMind and EMXI on the
left.
Juliette should remain within a favorable environment, with warm sea
surface temperatures and light to moderate wind shear for the next
18-24 h , which will allow for some strengthening. However, by early
Wednesday the system will be crossing into cooler sea surface
temperatures, and into a drier airmass. Latest SHIPS model guidance
depicts wind shear also increases in about 48 h. The latest NHC
intensity forecast lies near the consensus aids, and shows some
strengthening possible today, although since the inner core has not
established, the peak intensity is now just below hurricane
strength. A gradual weakening trend is then forecast between 24-36
h, followed by a faster rate of weakening beyond 36 h. Juliette is
forecast to become a remnant low by 60 h, before opening into a
trough and dissipating by day 4.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 18.3N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 19.3N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 20.8N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 23.6N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 24.6N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0600Z 25.3N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 1 day ago
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 000
FOPZ15 KNHC 260834
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 120W 34 1 19(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 1 day ago
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 000
WTPZ25 KNHC 260834
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 116.3W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 90SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 116.3W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 115.9W
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.3N 117.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.8N 119.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.6N 121.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.6N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.3N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 116.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 1 day ago
...JULIETTE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 the center of Juliette was located near 18.3, -116.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 1 day ago
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 000
WTPZ35 KNHC 260834
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025
...JULIETTE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 116.3W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 116.3 West. Juliette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn
toward the northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a
slower north-northwestward motion beginning late Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, a
weakening trend is anticipated to begin Wednesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 2 days ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260521
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located in the east Pacific basin several hundred
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.
Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form late this week, while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
A tropical wave off the coast of southern Mexico is producing
limited shower activity. Some slow development is possible late
this week and into the weekend as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central part of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 2 days ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 02:33:08 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 03:27:24 GMT
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 2 days ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 02:33:08 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 02:33:08 GMT
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 2 days ago
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025 000
WTPZ45 KNHC 260232
TCDEP5
Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025
Juliette continues to strengthen. A microwave pass from a few hours
ago suggested that the storm was developing an inner core, and
recent infrared satellite images indicate that banding features are
increasing south of the center. The Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB,
and CIMSS have all increased to 3.5/55 kt, and therefore, the
initial wind speed is increased to that value.
Juliette is expected to remain in favorable conditions to strengthen
for about another day, and it seems likely that it will become a
hurricane on Tuesday. However, the strengthening trend should end by
Tuesday night when the storm is forecast to cross the 26 C SST
isotherm and then move into an environment of drier air and stronger
shear. Juliette is expected to become a remnant low in about 3 days
when it is forecast to be over cool 22 C waters, and dissipate
entirely this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the
HCCA and IVCN models.
The storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest
side of a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn to the northwest and
then the north-northwest with a notable reduction in forward speed
is expected over the next few days as Juliette moves toward a
weakness in the ridge. The NHC track forecast is largely an update
of the previous one and lies on the western side of the guidance
envelope, in best agreement with EMXI and the Google DeepMind
models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 17.8N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 19.8N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 21.3N 119.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 22.8N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 24.9N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z 25.6N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 2 days ago
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 000
FOPZ15 KNHC 260231
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA CLARION 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
15N 115W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 115W 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 120W 34 3 21(24) 28(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
25N 120W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17)
25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 2 days ago
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025 000
WTPZ35 KNHC 260231
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025
...JULIETTE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 115.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 115.5 West. Juliette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn
toward the northwest is forecast by Tuesday night, followed by a
slower north-northwestward motion beginning late Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Juliette could become a hurricane on Tuesday. Weakening is expected
to begin on Wednesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. An automated Mexican Navy station on Clarion
Island recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a
gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 2 days ago
...JULIETTE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 the center of Juliette was located near 17.8, -115.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 2 days ago
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 000
WTPZ25 KNHC 260231
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025
0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.5W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.5W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 115.1W
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.8N 118.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.3N 119.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.8N 120.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.9N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 25.6N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 115.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster
3 weeks 2 days ago
262
ABPZ20 KNHC 252314
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located in the east Pacific basin several hundred
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.
Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible
through the week and into the weekend while it moves westward at 10
to 15 mph across the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
A tropical wave off the coast of southern Mexico is producing
limited shower activity. Some slow development is possible late
this week and into the weekend as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central part of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
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