National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...ERICK RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... As of 03:00 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025 the center of Erick was located near 18.0, -100.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 23:38:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 21:21:40 GMT

116
ABPZ20 KNHC 192337
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin inland over
southern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 600 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 192335 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 600 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 100.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erick was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 100.2 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico until it dissipates tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely dissipate tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next several hours in squalls and in mountainous regions near the center of Erick. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...ERICK RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... As of 6:00 PM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 17.7, -100.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 600 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 600 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 100.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erick was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 100.2 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico until it dissipates tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely dissipate tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next several hours in squalls and in mountainous regions near the center of Erick. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 20:58:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 21:21:40 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 20:58:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 20:58:37 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 20:36:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 20:36:22 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 20:36:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 20:36:22 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 429 FOPZ15 KNHC 192032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ACAPULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 464 WTPZ45 KNHC 192032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 Erick continues to rapidly weaken as it moves farther inland over the rugged terrain of Mexico. The inner core has now nearly completely collapsed, and the overall convective pattern has become quite ragged. Based on the degraded appearance and decreasing satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt, making Erick a tropical storm. Continued rapid weakening is forecast as Erick continues northwestward. The storm is expected to dissipate over the mountains in southwestern Mexico tonight. Even though Erick is no longer a hurricane, heavy rains will linger over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick will continue to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico mainly through tonight. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.4N 99.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 600 WTPZ25 KNHC 192032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 99.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 99.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 99.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 99.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 601 WTPZ35 KNHC 192032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 99.7W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings east of Punta Maldonado and downgraded the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Acapulco to Punta Maldonado. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 99.7 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico until it dissipates tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely dissipate tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches of rainfall mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur for a few more hours in the warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...ERICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 17.4, -99.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 17:31:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 15:22:21 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 191730 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...HURRICANE ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 99.0W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Escondido A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 99.0 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico until it dissipates tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely dissipate tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches in portions of the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the states of, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to continue for a couple of more hours in portions of the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions will likely continue into the late afternoon in the tropical storm warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding along portions of the coast of southern Mexico in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico throughout the day. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HURRICANE ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... As of 12:00 PM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 17.1, -99.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin inland over southern
Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 14:39:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 15:22:21 GMT