National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 20:41:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 21:21:23 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 20:41:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 20:41:54 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 20:41:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 20:41:54 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012040 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 Kiko continues to gradually become better organized on conventional satellite imagery with increasingly impressive curved banding noted in 1-minute GOES-18 imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates range from 55-65 kt while objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS continue to be in the 45-50 kt range. Based on a blend of the data and improving appearance on satellite imagery over the last few hours, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt for this advisory. Kiko has been moving toward the west-southwest at a slightly slower speed, with an estimated motion of 255/6 kt. A strengthening subtropical ridge to Kiko's north should cause this general motion to continue for the next day or so. After that time, Kiko should turn back toward the west due to its position due south of the strongest part of the ridge. By the end of the forecast period, a west-northwestward motion is likely as Kiko starts to reach the southwestern portion of the ridge's influence. There is very large along-track spread in the guidance, meaning that there is high uncertainty in Kiko's forward speed. The latest guidance has trended slower. The NHC forecast is slower and a bit to the north of the previous forecast, but not as slow as most of the latest consensus models. This latest track forecast is fairly close to the 12Z ECMWF model. Relatively warm ocean temperatures and light wind shear should allow Kiko to steadily strengthen over the next couple of days. If Kiko were to move south of the NHC forecast track, it could encounter stronger shear in 1-2 days, as the models show stronger upper level winds south of about 13N latitude. The other factor that complicates the intensity forecast is the possibility that some dry air tries to entrain into the circulation. The peak forecast intensity has been increased a bit to show a peak of 95 kt in 60-72 hours. This is closer to the latest HCCA and high resolution hurricane models, some of which bring Kiko to major hurricane intensity. Late in the forecast period, some slight weakening is possible due to slightly cooler ocean temperatures and the potential for slightly drier and more stable air. The intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 13.8N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 13.7N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 13.6N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 13.6N 130.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 13.6N 131.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 13.8N 133.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 13.9N 134.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 14.3N 138.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 15.2N 141.6W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 012039 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 34 X 10(10) 41(51) 6(57) 3(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 67(74) 10(84) X(84) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 12(50) X(50) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 9(28) X(28) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 34(74) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 26(41) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 012039 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 ...KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 126.7W ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 126.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn back toward the west on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 11:00 AM HST Mon Sep 01 the center of Kiko was located near 13.8, -126.7 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 012038 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.7W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.7W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.7N 127.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.6N 128.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.6N 130.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.6N 131.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 133.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 134.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 14.3N 138.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 15.2N 141.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 126.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

049
ABPZ20 KNHC 011736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located in the east Pacific basin well west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Kiko is
expected to cross into the central Pacific basin by the weekend.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
less than 150 miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico are
starting to become better organized, and recent satellite-derived
wind data indicate that winds to 35 mph are present in the
disturbance close to the coast of Mexico. This system is expected
to become a tropical depression by the middle of the week. This
system is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at
10 to 15 mph off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next
couple of days, then could turn northward and approach the Baja
California peninsula later this week. Interests in the Baja
California peninsula should monitor the progress of the
disturbance, as watches or warnings could be required for portions
of this area on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
is possible across coastal portions of southwestern and
west-central Mexico today through mid-week. Heavy rainfall is also
expected across Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico Tuesday
night through late this week. This heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially in mountainous areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 14:39:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 15:22:12 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 14:39:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 14:39:37 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011437 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 Kiko has intensified overnight and remains a compact storm. A timely GMI microwave pass revealed a closed cyan ring around the center in the 37-GHz image. The system’s compact size and improving core structure suggest that the inner core is consolidating, which often precedes rapid intensification. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB are 3.0/45 kt and from SAB are 4.0/64 kt, while objective estimates have increased into the 40–50 kt range. Given this range of data and the improving satellite presentation, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt for this advisory. Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt, steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge to the north. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours, followed by a more westward track through about 72 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone should gradually begin to turn toward the west-northwest as it crosses into the central Pacific basin between days 4 and 5 due to a potential weakness in the subtropical ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands. While the overall synoptic pattern is consistent, there remains considerable spread in along-track speed among the models. The NHC forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and continues to lean heavily on a blend of the HCCA and EMXI aids, which are near the faster side of the guidance envelope. Despite somewhat drier mid-level conditions along its forecast track, the combination of light vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and Kiko’s small compact core should allow for strengthening in the short term. Rapid intensification probabilities from the SHIPS guidance have increased over the past 24 hours, with around a 30–40 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in the next 24 hours. As a result, the official forecast reflects the potential for this during the first 24 hours, placing the intensity near the upper end of the guidance envelope during that period. Kiko’s intensity is forecast to peak near 85 kt in about 48 hours and then hold steady through day 5, which is near the middle to upper end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 14.0N 126.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 13.8N 127.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 13.6N 128.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 13.5N 130.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 13.5N 131.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 13.6N 133.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 13.7N 135.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 14.0N 138.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 14.8N 141.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 011436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 1500 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 130W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 1 24(25) 31(56) 6(62) 3(65) X(65) X(65) 15N 130W 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 58(66) 9(75) 1(76) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 7(37) X(37) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 31(74) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 24(39) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 011436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 ...KIKO FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 126.3W ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 126.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 24 hours, and Kiko is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...KIKO FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Sep 01 the center of Kiko was located near 14.0, -126.3 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 011435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 1500 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.3W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.3W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 125.9W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.8N 127.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.6N 128.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.5N 130.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.5N 131.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.6N 133.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.7N 135.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 14.0N 138.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 14.8N 141.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 126.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

897
ABPZ20 KNHC 011106
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located in the east Pacific basin well west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Kiko is
expected to cross into the central Pacific basin by the weekend.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms off the coast of southwestern Mexico. An area of
low pressure is expected to form from this system within the next
day or so, and it will likely become a tropical depression around
the middle of the week. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph off the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Interests in the Baja
California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 08:41:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 09:21:48 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 08:41:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 08:41:43 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010839 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 Kiko remains a compact tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery shows deep convection developing over the center with cloud top temperatures around -80 C and curved bands wrapping into the circulation. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 3.0/45 kt, while objective estimates range from 35 to 45 kt. A 0536 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated peak winds near 34 kt on the northern side of the storm. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Kiko is now moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt, steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge located to the north. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours, followed by a more westward track through about 96 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone should gradually turn toward the west-northwest as it crosses into the central Pacific basin between days 4 and 5 due to a potential weakness in the subtropical ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands. While the overall synoptic pattern is consistent, there remains considerable spread in the along-track speed among the models. The NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and leans heavily on a blend of the HCCA and EMXI aids, which lie on the faster side of the guidance envelope. Light vertical wind shear and modest mid-level moisture should support strengthening during the next few days, although Kiko’s forecast track keeps it near the 26 C isotherm and into a somewhat drier environment after midweek. Based on the latest SHIPS guidance and the cyclone’s small, compact core, a period of more rapid intensification cannot be ruled out through midweek. Kiko is forecast to become a hurricane within 36 hours and peak at 85 kt in 72 hours, which is near the higher end of the guidance envelope. Beyond that time, any increase in latitude would likely bring the storm over cooler waters, inhibiting any additional significant strengthening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 14.1N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 13.9N 126.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 13.7N 128.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 13.5N 129.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 13.5N 131.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 13.5N 132.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 13.6N 134.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 13.9N 138.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 14.4N 141.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)