National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 14:40:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 14:40:38 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021439 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 AM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 Over the past 6 hours, Kiko's eye has become apparent on nighttime visible imagery, and at times it has also showed up in the infrared imagery. The small hurricane is clearly intensifying. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 77-90 kt, while the UW-CIMSS objective estimates have been running in the 60-74 kt range. The initial intensity estimate of 75 kt represents an average of these estimates. Kiko continues moving slowly westward, or 270 degrees at 5 kt. The main steering feature continues to be the subtropical ridge located to the north of Kiko. A slow westward motion should continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by days 3 and 4 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge. There remains above normal along-track spread in the model suite, but not as much spread as yesterday, and the day 5 positions of the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement. The official day 5 position is relatively close to an average of those models. Only minor adjustments have been made to the official forecast, which lies close to the TVCE consensus. Through the next 48 h, Kiko should remain over sea-surface temperatures of 27-28C, with light to moderate easterly wind shear of 10-15 kt. The environmental air is a bit dry and stable, and this might prevent rapid intensification. However, steady strengthening still appears likely over the next day or two. By day 4, Kiko will reach somewhat cooler water temperatures as it moves into a drier environment. The new NHC forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity of 100 kt, and is near the high end of the intensity guidance suite through day 3. Some weakening is likely in 4-5 days when Kiko reaches the cooler water and drier air, but the official forecast still maintains Kiko at hurricane strength through day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 13.8N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 13.8N 131.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 13.9N 132.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 14.1N 134.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 14.4N 135.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 15.3N 138.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 16.4N 141.6W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 021437 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 8 46(54) 9(63) 2(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) 15N 130W 50 X 11(11) 5(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 130W 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 17(20) 68(88) 4(92) 1(93) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 54(58) 6(64) 1(65) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 6(43) 1(44) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) 20(60) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 14(27) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 021436 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 128.3W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 128.3W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 128.1W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 131.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 132.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 134.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.4N 135.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 138.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.4N 141.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 128.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 AM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...HURRICANE KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 128.3W ABOUT 1815 MI...2920 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 128.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected late this week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Kiko could become a major hurricane by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...HURRICANE KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Sep 02 the center of Kiko was located near 13.8, -128.3 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 08:58:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 09:27:27 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the east Pacific basin well east of the Hawaiian
Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central Pacific basin
over the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located in the east Pacific basin
about 200 miles west-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 08:58:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 09:27:27 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 08:58:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 08:58:14 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 256 WTPZ42 KNHC 020856 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 The tropical depression has been relatively steady overnight. Periodic bursts of deep convection continue to form over the low-level center, with cold cloud tops of less than -80 degrees C. A scatterometer pass from 0335 UTC showed a small circulation with reliable winds of 30 kt. The initial intensity is therefore held at 30 kt, which is also supported by the latest TAFB T2.0 classification. The cyclone is still moving west-northwestward at 13 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge should soon begin to steer the depression generally northwestward for the next couple of days. By the end of the week, the tropical cyclone is expected to slow down as it reaches a weakness in the ridge and gradually turn northward. Over the weekend, the depression is forecast to turn north-northeastward to northeastward toward the Baja California peninsula. The latest official forecast track is west of the previous forecast as a result of an adjustment to the initial position reflecting a delay in the northwestward turn, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Warm waters and a quiescent, moist atmosphere should allow the depression to steadily intensify during the next couple of days. The system is still expected to peak just under hurricane strength. By day 3, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C isotherm and experience increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing mid-level humidities which should cause gradual weakening. Little changes have been made to the latest intensity forecast. Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California later today or Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.6N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.6N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 23.2N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 24.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 26.3N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 28.2N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 The tropical depression has been relatively steady overnight. Periodic bursts of deep convection continue to form over the low-level center, with cold cloud tops of less than -80 degrees C. A scatterometer pass from 0335 UTC showed a small circulation with reliable winds of 30 kt. The initial intensity is therefore held at 30 kt, which is also supported by the latest TAFB T2.0 classification. The cyclone is still moving west-northwestward at 13 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge should soon begin to steer the depression generally northwestward for the next couple of days. By the end of the week, the tropical cyclone is expected to slow down as it reaches a weakness in the ridge and gradually turn northward. Over the weekend, the depression is forecast to turn north-northeastward to northeastward toward the Baja California peninsula. The latest official forecast track is west of the previous forecast as a result of an adjustment to the initial position reflecting a delay in the northwestward turn, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Warm waters and a quiescent, moist atmosphere should allow the depression to steadily intensify during the next couple of days. The system is still expected to peak just under hurricane strength. By day 3, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C isotherm and experience increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing mid-level humidities which should cause gradual weakening. Little changes have been made to the latest intensity forecast. Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California later today or Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.6N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.6N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 23.2N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 24.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 26.3N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 28.2N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 08:53:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2025 08:53:27 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020852 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 The satellite presentation of Kiko has improved since the previous advisory, with what appears to be a developing inner-core and hints of an eye evident at times in infrared satellite images. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 4.0/65 kt. The objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 53 and 71 kt during the past several hours, and have been trending upwards. Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory has been raised to 65 kt, making Kiko a category 1 hurricane. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next several days as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by days 4 and 5 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge. It should be noted that there remains considerable along-track spread among the global models, although the GFS and ECMWF day 5 positions have come into much better agreement since the previous model cycle. The official track forecast remains in good agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids and is very close to the previous advisory through 60 hours, then slightly to the north of the previous track forecast from day 3 onward. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by mostly light vertical wind shear through day 4. The surrounding environmental mid-level moisture appears to be a somewhat limiting factor for significant intensification, however, remaining between 50 and 60 percent through day 3, then trending below 50 percent by days 4 and 5. The latest intensity guidance has trended significantly higher from the previous model cycle, and the official forecast reflects this change and has been nudged upward accordingly. The official intensity forecast remains on the higher end of the intensity guidance, and is most closely aligned with the FSSE intensity consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 13.8N 127.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 128.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 13.8N 129.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 13.8N 130.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 13.8N 131.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 14.0N 133.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 15.0N 137.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 16.0N 140.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020851 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 34 1 45(46) 21(67) 4(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 130W 50 X 8( 8) 14(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 130W 64 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 67(76) 13(89) 1(90) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 19(60) X(60) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 15(38) 1(39) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 28(55) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 020851 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 ...KIKO BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 127.9W ABOUT 1840 MI...2965 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 127.9 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...KIKO BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Sep 01 the center of Kiko was located near 13.8, -127.9 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 020850 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.9W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.6W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 128.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.8N 129.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 130.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 131.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 133.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 137.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 140.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 127.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 020850 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) 1(22) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 20N 110W 34 1 74(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 110W 50 X 19(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 110W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 19(20) 3(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 30(36) 6(42) X(42) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 089 WTPZ32 KNHC 020849 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 106.8W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur later today or on Wednesday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the northwest and north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system will likely become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall well east and northeast of the depression will continue to impact portions of northwestern Mexico from the states of Colima to Sinaloa today, with isolated flash flooding possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja California Sur by Wednesday and potentially persist through Saturday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across portions of the area. Uncertainty remains with these totals, and locally higher or lower amounts are possible depending on the track and strength of the system. Potentially significant flash flooding is a possibility. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci