National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:50:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:50:44 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 032045 TCDEP2 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that investigated Lorena made two passes through the center, measuring maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt in the NE quadrant and a center dropsonde pressure of 985 mb with 7 kt of wind. The intensity is held at 70 kt based on the reconnaissance data. The data also confirmed that Lorena is rather small in size, with the aircraft data indicating a similar extent of the wind field as to what was previous estimated. Lorena could still intensify for another 6-12 hours while it remains over warm water and in low wind shear conditions. By 18 hours, the hurricane is expected to cross the 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm while southwesterly wind shear also begins to significantly increase. These conditions are expected to lead to rapid weakening beginning by Thursday afternoon. Only minor adjustments were made to the official intensity forecast. The official forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance through 24 hours, and then lies closer to the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter. The track guidance hasn't changed too much, but the TVCE, GFEX, and other consensus models are a bit faster with the northeastward motion beyond 36 h, and the NHC track was sped up a bit after that time. Otherwise, only minor changes were made to the NHC track forecast. It should be noted that several models indicate a farther left track, with dissipation over water without making landfall. This scenario is possible if the hurricane rapidly weakens by Thursday night and starts to decouple due to the aforementioned increasing southwesterly shear. Regardless of which track scenario pans out, there is very high confidence that heavy rainfall amounts leading to significant flooding will occur in Baja California Sur, especially since the southwesterly upper-level winds favor deep convection to the right side of Lorena. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact Baja California Sur, moving into southwestern Sonora by Thursday. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Moisture from Lorena is likely to contribute to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona and southern New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona into Saturday afternoon. 3. The center of Lorena is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwest coast of the Baja California Peninsula through tonight, and then move closer to the west-central coast of the peninsula on Thursday. Regardless of the exact track, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the coast of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible beginning Friday along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 4. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect portions of the southern and western coasts of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 22.8N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 23.6N 113.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 24.8N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 26.0N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 27.2N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 28.4N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 29.3N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 032043 PWSEP2 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P ABREOJOS 34 X 8( 8) 33(41) 9(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) P ABREOJOS 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) GUAYMAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 1 36(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 25N 115W 50 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 032042 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS LORENA STILL A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 112.4W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Bahia de los Angeles. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch south of Todos Santos to Cabo San Lucas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos northward to Santa Fe. * East Coast of the Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Bahia de los Angeles A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 112.4 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A generally slow northward motion is expected late Thursday and Thursday night, with a gradual turn toward the northeast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, approach the coast of Baja California Sur Thursday night, and move inland over the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through this evening. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and Lorena is expected to weaken back to a tropical storm by Friday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and move into southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur and southwestern Sonora through Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Farther northeast, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 5 inches, are expected from portions of the Mexico states of Sinaloa north and northeast into portions of Arizona and southern New Mexico through Saturday afternoon, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning tonight and will spread northward within the warning area in Baja California Sur through Thursday and into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area south of Santa Fe through tonight, and in the watch area on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula Friday into Friday night. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is likely along the coast of Baja California Sur near and to the right of where Lorena makes landfall. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS LORENA STILL A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Sep 03 the center of Lorena was located near 22.8, -112.4 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 486 WTPZ22 KNHC 032040 TCMEP2 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 112.4W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 112.4W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 112.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.6N 113.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.8N 113.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 26.0N 113.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 27.2N 113.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 28.4N 112.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.3N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 112.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 04/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 17:49:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 15:26:46 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 17:49:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 15:26:46 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 031748 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 1100 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING LORENA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 112.1W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Punta Abreojos A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to Santa Fe. * West Coast of Baja California Sur from north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 112.1 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A generally slow northward motion is expected late Thursday and early Friday, with a gradual turn toward the northeast by late Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through tonight and then approach the coast late Thursday through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue through this evening. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and Lorena could weaken back to a tropical storm by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The latest minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and move into southeastern Baja California and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora through Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Within the moisture surge ahead of Lorena, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 4 inches, are expected from the Mexico states of Sinaloa northward into Arizona through Friday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning tonight, and spreading northward within the warning area in Baja California Sur through Thursday and into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area south of Santa Fe through tonight, and in the watch area north of Punta Abreojos Thursday night and early Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING LORENA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 11:00 AM MST Wed Sep 03 the center of Lorena was located near 22.5, -112.1 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin over the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Hurricane Lorena, located in the East Pacific basin around 145
miles west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 14:59:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 15:26:46 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 14:59:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 14:59:57 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 031458 TCDEP2 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 800 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 Satellite imagery and radar data from the Los Cabos radar in Mexico indicate that Lorena continues to become better organized. Radar imagery shows Lorena's eye becoming better defined, with a completely closed and circular eyewall. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T-4.0/65 kt, with the UW-CIMSS numbers ranging from 55-68 kt. However, the improvement over the last few hours seen in radar images and GOES West satellite images suggest that Lorena is likely stronger now. The initial intensity is estimated at 70 kt, and it is possible this may be a bit conservative. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently enroute to Lorena, which should provide a better estimate of the intensity in a couple of hours from now. Lorena has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours. Continued rapid strengthening is likely for another 12 to 18 hours as Lorena remains over warm water and in low wind shear conditions, and the peak intensity forecast of 85 kt is maintained. By 24 hours, the hurricane is expected to cross the 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm while southwesterly wind shear also begins to significantly increase. These conditions are expected to lead to rapid weakening beginning by Thursday afternoon. The official forecast is above most of the intensity guidance for the first 24 hours, but is closer to the consensus aids thereafter. The initial motion is faster now toward the northwest, or 320/14 kt. Not much has changed with the track forecast reasoning. There are still two camps of models. The majority of the guidance, including the GFS, shows Lorena progressing faster and farther east, with landfall in Baja California Sur followed by a turn toward the northeast. But a significant minority of models, including the ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET, slow down Lorena immediately, with a track farther west, and then dissipate the system over water without making landfall. The steering is such that a stronger cyclone would be more likely to be in the faster and farther east camp of models. However, if the hurricane rapidly weakens by Thursday night and starts to decouple due to the aforementioned increasing southwesterly shear, then the low-level circulation could potentially get left behind. The new NHC forecast shows a faster forward motion over the next 36 hours with a track slightly to the right of the previous NHC track. Due to the rightward shift, the chance of tropical storm force winds impacting portions of Baja California Sur is increasing. Additionally, there is very high confidence that heavy rainfall amounts leading to significant flooding will occur in Baja California Sur, especially since the southwesterly upper-level winds favor deep convection to the right side of Lorena by late Thursday. At 48 h and beyond, the new NHC forecast is similar to, but slightly to the left of, the previous NHC forecast track. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lorena will continue to impact Baja California Sur, moving into southeastern Baja California and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, and contributing to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona from late Wednesday through Friday. This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Mexico, especially in areas of higher terrain. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona through Friday. 2. The center of Lorena is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwest coast of the Baja Peninsula today, and then move closer to the west-central coast of the peninsula on Thursday. Regardless of the exact track, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the coast of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical Storm conditions are also possible through tonight along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect portions of the southern and western coasts of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 22.3N 111.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 23.4N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 24.5N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 25.6N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 26.4N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 28.4N 112.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 30.4N 110.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 031455 PWSEP2 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) P ABREOJOS 34 X 6( 6) 32(38) 14(52) 5(57) X(57) X(57) P ABREOJOS 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BAHIA KINO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 1 32(33) 17(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 25N 115W 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 115W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 031454 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 800 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 111.6W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Baja California Sur from north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Punta Abreojos A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to Santa Fe. * West Coast of Baja California Sur from north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 111.6 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A generally slow northward motion is expected late Thursday and early Friday, with a gradual turn toward the northeast by late Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through tonight and then approach the coast late Thursday through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue through this evening. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and Lorena could weaken back to a tropical storm by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and move into southeastern Baja California and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora through Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Within the moisture surge ahead of Lorena, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 4 inches, are expected from the Mexico states of Sinaloa northward into Arizona through Friday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning tonight, and spreading northward within the warning area in Baja California Sur through Thursday and into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area south of Santa Fe through tonight, and in the watch area north of Punta Abreojos Thursday night and early Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 8:00 AM MST Wed Sep 03 the center of Lorena was located near 22.3, -111.6 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 031454 TCMEP2 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.6W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.6W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.4N 112.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.5N 113.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 25.6N 113.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.4N 113.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 28.4N 112.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.4N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 111.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 14:53:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 14:53:38 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 031451 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 Kiko is getting better organized on satellite with an eye clearing out over the past 6 to 12 hours with recent satellite images showing the eye being surrounded by a ring of deep convection. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 5.0/90 kt at 12Z but since that time the structure has improved on satellite while the objective ADT estimate was 99 knots. The initial intensity has been set at 95 kt as a compromise between these estimates. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 7 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day 3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii erodes the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion then continuing through day 5. The track guidance this cycle was tightly clustered through day 3. After that time, the European ensemble shows a significant increase in spread in both the along- and cross-track directions. The official track forecast remains close to the HCCA and GDMI model solutions and is on the southern side of the overall model envelope of solutions. Kiko will remain over warm water and light vertical wind shear for at least the next 3 days. Kiko's intensity will therefore likely be governed by inner-core structural changes. Given its current single eye-wall structure seen on earlier AMSR-2 microwave imagery, Kiko appears poised to intensify more in the short term and the latest intensity forecast shows more intensification than the previous advisory. This intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance suite closest to the HAFS-A and HAFS-B forecast over the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, cooler SSTs and an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear should lead to gradual weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 13.9N 130.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 13.9N 131.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 14.0N 133.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 14.2N 135.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 14.6N 136.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 14.8N 138.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 15.2N 140.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 16.8N 143.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 18.5N 147.7W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Bann