National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:36:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:36:07 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 739 FOPZ11 KNHC 022032 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 110W 64 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ISLA SOCORRO 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 031 WTPZ41 KNHC 022033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Flossie is feeling the effects of decreasing sea surface temperatures, with the associated convection waning and becoming asymmetric. The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates indicate weakening, and recent objective satellite estimates are in the 80-90 kt range. Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 85 kt. The initial wind radii have been revised based on a 1638Z ASCAT overpass. The initial motion is 305/8 kt. Flossie is moving toward a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough over California and the adjacent Pacific. A general northwestward motion should continue for the next couple of days. After that, Flossie should lose vertical depth as it weakens, with the remnant low being steered more toward the west-northwest by the mean low-level flow. The new forecast track is almost identical to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. Steady to rapid weakening is forecast to continue as Flossie moves over cooler water and into a drier air mass. The cyclone is predicted to become post-tropical in about 36 h as it stops producing convection, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low thereafter. The system is forecast to dissipate completely by 96 h, and this could happen earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 19.5N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1800Z 23.1N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 24.0N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 406 WTPZ31 KNHC 022032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...FLOSSIE WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 109.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 109.8 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is expected during the next few days, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FLOSSIE WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Jul 02 the center of Flossie was located near 19.5, -109.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 975 WTPZ21 KNHC 022031 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.1N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

851
ABPZ20 KNHC 021714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a few hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:35:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 15:21:47 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:35:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:35:32 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021434 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Satellite imagery shows that the inner core of Flossie has started to degrade this morning, and the eye has become more ragged and cloud filled. An AMSR2 microwave pass around 0916 UTC shows that the northern eyewall has started to deteriorate, and is open on the northern side. This suggest a weakening trend has begun, and Flossie has likely reached peak intensity. While the system has peaked, deep cold convection continues to wrap around the southern and eastern side of the system. Satellite intensity estimates range from 90-100 kt. Given the latest satellite trends and using a blend of the estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this advisory. Flossie continues to move toward the west-northwest or 300/9 knots. This general motion is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period, towards a weakness in the mid-level ridge. The latest NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the right of the previous, and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus. A steady to rapid weakening trend is expected to begin today. Along the forecast track, Flossie will continue to move into cooler sea surface temperatures and drier mid-level air. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows a little quicker weakening trend compared to the previous, and lies near the simple intensity consensus. Flossie expected to become a post-tropical low by 36 hours, with dissipation following by 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.0N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.7N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 23.7N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 24.4N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 021434 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 50 73 11(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 20N 110W 64 23 17(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ISLA SOCORRO 34 20 8(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA CLARION 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 109.0W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 109.0 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is expected the next few days, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM MST Wed Jul 02 the center of Flossie was located near 19.0, -109.0 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 075 WTPZ21 KNHC 021433 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 109.0W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 109.0W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.7N 113.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.7N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.4N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Satellite imagery shows that the inner core of Flossie has started to degrade this morning, and the eye has become more ragged and cloud filled. An AMSR2 microwave pass around 0916 UTC shows that the northern eyewall has started to deteriorate, and is open on the northern side. This suggest a weakening trend has begun, and Flossie has likely reached peak intensity. While the system has peaked, deep cold convection continues to wrap around the southern and eastern side of the system. Satellite intensity estimates range from 90-100 kt. Given the latest satellite trends and using a blend of the estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this advisory. Flossie continues to move toward the west-northwest or 300/9 knots. This general motion is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period, towards a weakness in the mid-level ridge. The latest NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the right of the previous, and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus. A steady to rapid weakening trend is expected to begin today. Along the forecast track, Flossie will continue to move into cooler sea surface temperatures and drier mid-level air. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows a little quicker weakening trend compared to the previous, and lies near the simple intensity consensus. Flossie expected to become a post-tropical low by 36 hours, with dissipation following by 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.0N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.7N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 23.7N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 24.4N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a few hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 09:21:48 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT