Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 40

1 week ago
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 10 2025 ZCZC HFOTCMCP4 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112025 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0300 UTC WED SEP 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 156.3W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....180NE 60SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 156.3W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 155.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.4N 158.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.1N 160.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.8N 162.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.6N 164.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.2N 166.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.7N 168.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 156.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 week ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092343
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin a couple of
hundred miles east-northeast of Oahu in the Hawaiian Islands.

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP95):
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this week as it moves west-northwestward, roughly
parallel to but offshore of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 39

1 week 1 day ago
Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 09 2025 ZCZC HFOTCDCP4 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 39 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 09 2025 Satellite images show convection associated with Kiko remains displaced to the north of the low-level center within northerly outer bands. Strong southwesterly wind shear and drier air continues to limit the overall convection, especially near the center of the system through this morning. Lastest subjective estimates from SAB and PHFO, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have decreased ranging from 25 to 43 kt. Using these estimates and the latest satellite trends, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. Kiko continues to move west-northwestward at an estimated motion of 290/13 kt. The system has become a more shallow vortex and is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward throughout the forecast period, steered by the subtropical ridge. The official forecast track was nudged slightly left, and lies near the latest consensus aids. The cyclone remains is forecast to remain within a high shear environment over the next 18 h or so, afterwards shear subsides for about a day or so. When the shear subsides Kiko will remain over warm ocean temperatures and global model simulated infrared imagery show that the system could regain convection. However, it remains to be seen if the convection will be organized enough to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. By 48-60h, moderate to strong shear returns, and the system should continue to weaken, lose all convection, and eventually open into a trough dissipating by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC forecast follows these weakening trends, and lies near the consensus intensity aids. It is noted that if Kiko does not produce organized convection soon as models show, the system may become post-tropical earlier than officially forecast. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands today and Wednesday. Additional weakening is expected, and the threat of direct impacts on the islands continues to diminish, though interests should still monitor Kiko's progress and the latest forecasts. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are gradually building from east to west across the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak today through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts issued from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 22.9N 154.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 23.4N 156.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 23.9N 159.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 24.7N 161.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 25.6N 163.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 26.3N 165.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 26.9N 167.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 week 1 day ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin a few hundred miles
north-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii.

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located south of the southern coast of Guatemala is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are favorable for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this
week as it moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but
offshore of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 week 1 day ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin a few hundred miles
east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii.

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located south of the southern coast of Guatemala is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are favorable for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week as it moves
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but offshore of the Mexican
coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 week 1 day ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090520
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin a few hundred miles
east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii.

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located around 150 miles south of the southern coast
of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are favorable for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this
week as it moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but
offshore of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 week 2 days ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082331
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin several hundred miles
east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii.

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located around 150 miles south of El Salvador is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are favorable for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week as it moves
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but offshore of the Mexican
coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 week 3 days ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072309
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin well east of Hilo,
Hawaii.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 week 3 days ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071710
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin well east-southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 week 3 days ago
209
ABPZ20 KNHC 071129
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin well east-southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located a
few hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico is
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable during
the next couple of days, and further development of this system is
not anticipated while it moves generally westward at around 10 to
15 mph over the open waters of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 week 3 days ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070516
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin well east-southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii.

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a few showers and
thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow
to occur while it moves generally westward at around 10 to 15 mph
over the open waters of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 week 4 days ago
125
ABPZ20 KNHC 062320
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin well east-southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii.

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a few showers and
thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow
to occur while it moves generally westward around 10 to 15 mph over
the open waters of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 week 4 days ago
915
ABPZ20 KNHC 061714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin well east-southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a few showers and
thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow
to occur while it moves generally westward around 10 to 15 mph over
the open waters of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 week 4 days ago
576
ABPZ20 KNHC 061142
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the eastern Pacific basin well east-southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii. Kiko is expected to cross into the central Pacific
basin soon.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Development, if any, of this
system should be slow to occur while it moves generally westward
around 10 to 15 mph over the open waters of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 25

1 week 4 days ago
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 433 WTPZ41 KNHC 061036 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 Kiko has held steady this evening with only minor fluctuations in intensity, maintaining its Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The eye remains well-defined and is mostly surrounded by a sufficiently large light gray shade on the Dvorak BD curve, with occasional hints of an even stronger pattern when a nearly sufficiently large black shade surrounds the eye. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensities varied, with TAFB at 6.5/127 kt, and SAB and HFO both at 6.0/115 kt. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged between 115 and 122 kt. Blending the subjective and objective data supports holding the initial intensity at 120 kt for this advisory. Kiko continues to move west-northwestward, or 285 degrees at 9 kt, and will enter the Central Pacific basin within a few hours. The cyclone remains steered by the southwestern flank of a subtropical ridge, while an upper-level low north of Hawaii continues to gradually erode the ridge’s western periphery. This general motion is expected to persist through the weekend. By early to mid next week (days 3 to 5), it is expected to turn slightly more westward under increasing influence from the low-level steering flow, keeping the center north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The latest forecast track lies slightly to the right of the previous NHC forecast and represents a blend between that solution and the consensus aids. Kiko is expected to maintain its major hurricane intensity through Saturday while traversing waters near 26 C and under minimal shear. Its annular structure should allow the system to resist weakening longer than typically observed, even as it begins to move over cooler waters. By late this weekend, Kiko will encounter progressively cooler waters and steadily increasing west-southwesterly shear, which should induce weakening at a more rapid rate as it begins to approach the Hawaiian Islands. The official intensity forecast holds Kiko above much of the guidance through the first half of the weekend, before trending closer to the consensus aids late in the weekend and early next week. Future information on Kiko can be found under Central Pacific basin headers beginning at 500 AM HST. Future Tropical Cyclone Discussions will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 15.1N 139.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.5N 142.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 17.4N 144.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 18.5N 146.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 19.6N 149.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 21.0N 151.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 23.1N 155.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 24.9N 160.9W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 25

1 week 4 days ago
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060836 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 Kiko has held steady this evening with only minor fluctuations in intensity, maintaining its Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The eye remains well-defined and is mostly surrounded by a sufficiently large light gray shade on the Dvorak BD curve, with occasional hints of an even stronger pattern when a nearly sufficiently large black shade surrounds the eye. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensities varied, with TAFB at 6.5/127 kt, and SAB and HFO both at 6.0/115 kt. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged between 115 and 122 kt. Blending the subjective and objective data supports holding the initial intensity at 120 kt for this advisory. Kiko continues to move west-northwestward, or 285 degrees at 9 kt, and will enter the Central Pacific basin within a few hours. The cyclone remains steered by the southwestern flank of a subtropical ridge, while an upper-level low north of Hawaii continues to gradually erode the ridge’s western periphery. This general motion is expected to persist through the weekend. By early to mid next week (days 3 to 5), it is expected to turn slightly more westward under increasing influence from the low-level steering flow, keeping the center north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The latest forecast track lies slightly to the right of the previous NHC forecast and represents a blend between that solution and the consensus aids. Kiko is expected to maintain its major hurricane intensity through Saturday while traversing waters near 26 C and under minimal shear. Its annular structure should allow the system to resist weakening longer than typically observed, even as it begins to move over cooler waters. By late this weekend, Kiko will encounter progressively cooler waters and steadily increasing west-southwesterly shear, which should induce weakening at a more rapid rate as it begins to approach the Hawaiian Islands. The official intensity forecast holds Kiko above much of the guidance through the first half of the weekend, before trending closer to the consensus aids late in the weekend and early next week. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. Future information on Kiko can be found under Central Pacific basin headers beginning at 500 AM HST. Future Tropical Cyclone Discussions will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 15.1N 139.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.5N 142.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 17.4N 144.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 18.5N 146.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 19.6N 149.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 21.0N 151.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 23.1N 155.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 24.9N 160.9W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

1 week 4 days ago
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 029 FOPZ11 KNHC 060832 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 15N 140W 64 48 X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) 15N 145W 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 20(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 79(87) 1(88) X(88) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 1(58) X(58) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) X(34) X(34) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 67(71) 2(73) X(73) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 2(34) X(34) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 25N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
NHC Webmaster
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5 years 11 months ago
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