National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 052 WTPZ31 KNHC 060832 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 ...KIKO HOLDS STEADY AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE NEARING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 139.7W ABOUT 1065 MI...1710 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Kiko. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 139.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Only minor fluctuations in strength are anticipated through Saturday, with gradual weakening expected to begin by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Future information on Kiko can be found under Central Pacific basin headers beginning at 500 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4 and WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...KIKO HOLDS STEADY AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE NEARING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 11:00 PM HST Fri Sep 05 the center of Kiko was located near 15.1, -139.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 930 WTPZ21 KNHC 060831 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 139.7W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 105SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 139.7W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 139.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.5N 142.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.4N 144.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.5N 146.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.6N 149.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.0N 151.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.1N 155.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 160.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 139.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER EAST PACIFIC BASIN HEADERS ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON KIKO CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN HEADERS...AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4...WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO...BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC. $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the eastern Pacific basin well east-southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii. Kiko is expected to cross into the central Pacific
basin late tonight.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could develop in the central portion of the
eastern Pacific, well south of the Baja California peninsula, during
the early part of next week. Some slow development of this system is
possible thereafter as it moves generally westward around 10 to 15
mph over the open waters of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2025 02:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2025 03:21:44 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2025 02:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2025 02:39:30 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 906 WTPZ41 KNHC 060237 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 Kiko has continued to intensify this afternoon and remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The eye is now surrounded by a large ring of very cold cloud tops, and the cyclone has taken on a structure more typical of annular hurricanes. A GMI microwave pass from 2224 UTC confirmed a symmetric inner-core with a complete ring of deep convection around the eye. The latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are as high as 122 kt. Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB are both T6.0/115 kt. Blending the higher objective estimates with the slightly lower subjective classifications yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone remains steered along the southwestern flank of a subtropical ridge, while an upper-level low north of Hawaii is helping to erode the western periphery of the ridge. This general motion with some increase in forward speed should persist through the weekend, with Kiko expected to cross into the central Pacific basin late tonight or early Saturday. The official forecast track is near the HCCA consensus and essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. However, a track slightly to the left of the official forecast would bring Kiko closer to the Big Island. Historically, cyclones approaching the Big Island from the east can slow and deflect northward as the island terrain disrupts the low-level flow and alters the steering currents. Kiko should remain a powerful hurricane for the next 12–24 hours while traversing 26–27 C waters with light north-northeasterly shear. Its annular structure may allow it to resist weakening longer than typical guidance, despite the surrounding dry environment in the mid- to upper levels. Beyond 48 hours, a combination of cooler waters, dry mid-level air, and strengthening west-southwesterly shear exceeding 30 kt will likely induce rapid weakening. The official intensity forecast holds Kiko above most of the available guidance into the weekend, then trends more toward the consensus aids later in the weekend and early next week. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 14.9N 138.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 15.4N 140.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 16.1N 142.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 16.9N 143.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 17.8N 145.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 19.0N 148.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 20.2N 150.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 22.4N 154.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 24.3N 159.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 969 FOPZ11 KNHC 060235 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 75 4(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 140W 64 47 5(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 24(28) 8(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 77(80) 4(84) X(84) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 4(51) X(51) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) X(26) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 59(60) 11(71) X(71) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 9(30) X(30) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) X(20) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 918 WTPZ31 KNHC 060235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 ...KIKO STRENGTHENS AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 138.7W ABOUT 1130 MI...1820 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1335 MI...2145 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Kiko. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 138.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible overnight and into Saturday before gradual weakening begins by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...KIKO STRENGTHENS AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 5:00 PM HST Fri Sep 05 the center of Kiko was located near 14.9, -138.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 ...KIKO STRENGTHENS AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 138.7W ABOUT 1130 MI...1820 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1335 MI...2145 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Kiko. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 138.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible overnight and into Saturday before gradual weakening begins by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC) NNNN

...KIKO STRENGTHENS AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 5:00 PM HST Fri Sep 05 the center of Kiko was located near 14.9, -138.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 060234 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 138.7W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 138.7W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 138.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.4N 140.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.1N 142.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.9N 143.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.8N 145.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.0N 148.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 150.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.4N 154.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.3N 159.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 138.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

273
ABPZ20 KNHC 052301
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the eastern Pacific basin well east-southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii. Kiko is expected to cross into the central Pacific
basin late tonight.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could develop in the central portion of the
eastern Pacific, well south of the Baja California peninsula, during
the early part of next week. Some slow development of this system is
possible thereafter as it moves generally westward around 10 to 15
mph over the open waters of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 20:56:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 21:22:21 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 20:56:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 20:56:40 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 20:46:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 20:46:05 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 052044 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 The satellite presentation of Kiko has shown significant improvement since the last advisory, with the eye clearing out and its coldest cloud tops more fully encircling it. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T6.0/115 kt and T5.5/102 kt. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have been increasing, with the latest ADT estimate up to to 115 knots. Considering the continuing improvement since the time of the 1800 UTC fixes, the intensity has been set at 115 kts, which could be conservative as the eye continues to clear out. Kiko continues to move to the west-northwest, or 290 degrees, at 9 kt. The western extent of a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is eroding due to a developing upper-level low north of Hawaii. This general west-northwestward motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is forecast into early next week, as Kiko moves along the southwest periphery of this subtropical ridge and towards the upper-level low to the north and northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The track forecast has shifted northward due to the slightly more northward initial motion, and poleward shift in the track guidance. Based on the forecast track Kiko is expected to cross 140W into the central Pacific Ocean overnight into Saturday morning. The track forecast remains close to the HCCA consensus aid. By the end of the forecast track, Kiko may turn more westward as it becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. The hurricane will remain over warm waters of 27–28C for the next 12 hours, while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear embedded in a drier than normal mid-level environment. These environmental factors should keep Kiko a smaller than average sized storm as the dry air prevents more prominent outer rain bands from forming. Conditions still appear favorable for additional intensification, so the latest intensity and given the current improving structure, more intensification is shown than before, well above all of the available guidance. This forecast also fits in with the possibility for Kiko developing annular structure which could keep it stronger than the forecast intensity guidance. Thereafter, Kiko will move over cooler waters and an even drier mid-level environment. After 48 hours, west-southwesterly vertical wind shear increases steadily, exceeding 30 kt by Wednesday. This shear may help import the nearby environmental dry air into Kiko's small core. Thus, rapid weakening of the tropical cyclone is forecast as Kiko passes to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the end of the forecast. After the initial bump in short-term intensity, this forecast trends back to the middle of the consensus envelope early next week, and then trends lower by the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 14.5N 137.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 14.9N 139.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 15.6N 141.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 16.3N 143.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 17.2N 145.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 18.2N 147.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 19.4N 149.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 21.7N 153.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 23.7N 158.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roth/Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 052041 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 70 30(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 14 75(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 140W 64 3 65(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 18(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 16(30) 1(31) X(31) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 59(60) 19(79) X(79) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 19(42) X(42) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 31(64) X(64) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) X(27) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROTH/PAPIN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 052041 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 ...KIKO QUICKLY RE-INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 137.8W ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1400 MI...2255 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Kiko. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 137.8 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, Kiko is expected to move into the central Pacific basin by tomorrow morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected this afternoon and tonight before slow weakening begins on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko could begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands towards the end of this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products by the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Roth/Papin