National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...IVO MOVING WESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 8:00 PM MST Fri Aug 08 the center of Ivo was located near 20.5, -112.1 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0300 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.1W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.1W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.7N 113.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.9N 118.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.1N 120.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.1N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 112.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN

057
ABPZ20 KNHC 082303
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin well east of
the Hawaiian Islands. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo, located over the Eastern Pacific
basin about 200 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 20:37:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 21:27:15 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 20:37:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 20:37:47 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 227 WTPZ44 KNHC 082034 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 Ivo's structure has become more organized during the past few hours, with inner core banding becoming more pronounced. Recent WSF-M and GMI microwave data were helpful in confirming the improved structure, and also showed that Ivo's center was located a little farther south than previously estimated. Despite the improved structure, there is a wide range in intensity estimates. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, while objective numbers from UW-CIMSS are stuck at 40-45 kt. To add to the quandary, ASCAT data only showed maximum winds of 35 kt, but it is highly likely that Ivo is too small for the instrument to effectively sample its maximum winds. For now, Ivo's maximum winds are set to 55 kt. The storm has turned westward and continues to slow down with an initial motion of 275/11 kt. A westward to west-northwestward trajectory is forecast to continue for the next several days as strong mid-level ridging remains entrenched to the north. The NHC track forecast has been shifted south of the previous prediction to account for the adjustment of the initial position, but otherwise it is very close to the various multi-model consensus aids. Some additional strengthening is anticipated during the next 12-24 hours while Ivo remains in an unstable environment with upper-level divergence, and over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, Ivo could still become a hurricane between the nominal forecast times. All of the aforementioned environmental factors turn detrimental in about 36 hours, at which point more significant weakening is expected to begin. Ivo could lose its deep convection and become post-tropical in about 60 hours. Dissipation is now shown by day 4 in line with the ECWMF, UKMET, and Canadian model solutions, with the GFS being an outlier and continuing the remnant low westward for another day or so after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 20.4N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 20.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 20.7N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 21.0N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 21.8N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1800Z 21.9N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 082033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 2100 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 17(17) 24(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 20N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 082033 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 ...IVO STRENGTHENS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 111.2W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- None. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 111.2 West. Ivo is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible through Saturday, but weakening is expected to begin by Sunday. Ivo is forecast to become post-tropical by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...IVO STRENGTHENS... As of 2:00 PM MST Fri Aug 08 the center of Ivo was located near 20.4, -111.2 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 298 WTPZ24 KNHC 082033 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 2100 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.2W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.2W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 110.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.7N 114.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.0N 115.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.8N 119.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.9N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 111.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081716
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin well east of
the Hawaiian Islands. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo, located over the Eastern Pacific
basin about 160 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 08 2025 ZCZC HFOTCPCP3 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM CCA BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 18...Corrected NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Fri Aug 08 2025 Corrected spelling in headline ...HENRIETTE BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... ...FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 141.5W ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 141.5 West. Henriette is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest over the weekend, keeping the center of Henriette well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Henriette could degenerate to a remnant low later today. Restrengthening as a tropical storm is expected over the weekend, and Henriette could become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...HENRIETTE BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... ...FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN IN A FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Aug 08 the center of Henriette was located near 19.7, -141.5 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 14:37:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 15:27:09 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 08 2025 ZCZC HFOTCDCP3 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 18 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Fri Aug 08 2025 Henriette has failed to produce deep convection for about 12 hours now. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 25 kt from JTWC and too weak to classify from SAB and PHFO. Recent objective intensity estimates range from 25 to 40 kt. An earlier ASCAT pass from 0535 UTC showed a large area of 30-33 kt vectors on the north side of Henriette. Henriette will be maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory, but it could degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low at any time today. The cyclone is moving just north of due west at 280/15 kt. A turn to the west-northwest is expected soon as the cyclone tracks along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to its northeast. A turn toward the northwest is forecast late this weekend into early next week as Henriette becomes steered between an amplifying longwave trough northwest of Hawaii and the subtropical ridge to its northeast. The NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered consensus aids. Confidence remains high that Henriette will remain far to the north of Hawaii. Henriette is over 24C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and is embedded within a dry airmass. These cold SSTs are expected to persist along the cyclone's track for another 12 to 24 h. If Henriette doesn't generate organized convection soon, it could degenerate to a remnant low today, and this is explicitly shown in the NHC forecast Beyond 24 h, Henriette (or its remnants) will encounter progressively warmer water temperatures over the weekend, peaking around 26-27C in about 3 days. Upper-level temperatures are also expected to decrease in a couple of days as the aforementioned trough approaches Henriette, which would increase instability. These factors, along with relatively low shear, will likely allow Henriette to restrengthen later this weekend into early next week, as depicted by most of the models. The NHC intensity forecast is at the low end of the guidance envelope through 36 h, and at the high end of the guidance at 72-96 h. Beyond day 4, wind shear from the longwave trough and cooling SSTs should lead to steady weakening as Henriette moves farther into the mid-latitudes. Even if Henriette becomes post-tropical today, given the high likelihood of regeneration back into a tropical cyclone and subsequent restrengthening, NHC plans on maintaining advisories during the post-tropical phase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 19.7N 141.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 20.3N 143.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 09/1200Z 21.3N 146.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/0000Z 22.6N 148.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 10/1200Z 24.1N 150.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 25.9N 153.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 27.9N 155.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 32.3N 160.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 37.1N 165.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen NNNN

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 ZCZC HFOPWSCP3 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082025 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1500 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 30N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 1(38) 30N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) 30N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 13(32) 35N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 35N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 35N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 35N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 35N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 40N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN NNNN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 14:37:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 14:37:19 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 08 2025 ZCZC HFOTCPCP3 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 18 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Fri Aug 08 2025 ...HENRIETTE BARLEY A TROPICAL STORM... ...FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 141.5W ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 141.5 West. Henriette is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest over the weekend, keeping the center of Henriette well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Henriette could degenerate to a remnant low later today. Restrengthening as a tropical storm is expected over the weekend, and Henriette could become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...HENRIETTE BARLEY A TROPICAL STORM... ...FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN IN A FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Aug 08 the center of Henriette was located near 19.7, -141.5 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081436 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 AM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 Ivo's satellite presentation hasn't changed much since the last advisory. The center appears to be embedded beneath the northern side of the Central Dense Overcast, with one small convective band forming on the northwestern side of the circulation. The Dvorak estimate from TAFB increased to T3.5/55 kt, however the SAB estimate and all objective guidance is much lower. Therefore, the current intensity is held at 50 kt. Ivo is slowing down and now has a west-northwestward initial motion at 295/14 kt. Strong mid-level ridging to the north is expected to be the main driver for the entirety of the forecast, keeping Ivo on a westward or west-northwestward trajectory but at a slower forward speed. No significant changes were made to the official track forecast. The more complicated part of the forecast is the intensity. Ivo is expected to remain over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius and in a moist environment with divergence aloft for the next 24 hours or so. Because of that, the NHC intensity forecast continues to show some strengthening through tonight. The forecast no longer explicitly shows Ivo becoming a hurricane, but that is still a small possibility, especially if Ivo is currently stronger than is being estimated. Beginning in about 36 hours, colder ocean temperatures, a more stable environment, and less divergence aloft should cause the storm to weaken. Some of the models differ significantly on exactly how quick that weakening will be. For example, the GFS maintains tropical-storm-force winds for at least the next 3 days, while the ECWMF degenerates Ivo into a remnant low in about 24 hours. As a compromise, the NHC forecast shows Ivo becoming post-tropical by 60 hours, with dissipation by day 5, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 20.7N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 21.1N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 21.3N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 21.3N 114.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 21.5N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1200Z 22.0N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 22.0N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg