National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

297
ABPZ20 KNHC 160531
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An trough of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
coast of southern Mexico continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter
part of this week as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 02:33:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 03:22:19 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 02:33:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 02:33:51 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 261 WTPZ43 KNHC 160234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 After its strengthening episode earlier today, Mario has begun a weakening trend. There has been a dramatic decrease in the coverage and intensity of the associated deep convection, making Dvorak classifications problematic. The lastest subjective and objective intensity estimates vary substantially, and the advisory intensity is set at a rather uncertain 50 kt. Given the decrease in convection, this may be a generous estimate. Hopefully an upcoming scatterometer pass will provide more information on the strength of the cyclone. There is a fair amount of scatter in the center fixes, and my best estimate for initial motion is 310/11 kt. Mario should continue to move along the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system centered over northern Mexico for the next couple of days. The official track forecast is just slightly to the right of the previous one and close to the latest corrected consensus model, HCCA, guidance. Mario will be traversing progressively cooler waters for the next couple of days, with the SSTs below the system dropping below 24 deg C by late tomorrow. Moreover, increasingly strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to affect the system for the next 48 hours. The official forecast calls for the system to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours, however if the current trend in deep convection persists, this could occur sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 21.5N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 25.3N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 26.0N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 27.2N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 02:33:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 02:33:51 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 ...MARIO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 115.0W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 115.0 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Mario should become a remnant low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...MARIO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 the center of Mario was located near 21.5, -115.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160231 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 115.0W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 115.0W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 25.3N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.0N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 27.2N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152304
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week as it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east
Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 20:35:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 21:22:18 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 20:35:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 20:35:36 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 The satellite presentation has improved with Mario during the day, with a more circular central dense overcast and consistent convection. A recent 1838Z GPM microwave pass also shows the development of some inner-core features. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range from 45-65 kt, a bit higher than earlier, so the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory. Mario is now moving northwestward (305/11 kt), steered between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid-level low to its northwest. The most notable thing about the track forecast is what happens when Mario becomes a remnant low in a couple of days. Model guidance has been leaning more to the northeast during the past few cycles as they seem to have caught onto a more vertically intact Mario. While the new official forecast has been shifted to the north, it remains on the western side of the model consensus, closest to the ECMWF and Google Deep Mind solutions. The intensity forecast is a little tricky for Mario with it soon crossing into cooler waters with higher shear. While the forecast shows weakening, it could hang on a bit stronger in the short-term if it is able to take advantage of its primitive inner-core. Mario should begin to weaken in earnest on Tuesday when it gets over cold waters with much higher shear, causing it to lose convection in about 36 h and totally dissipate by 72h. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, between the model consensus and the HFIP Corrected Consensus model HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 20.8N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 21.8N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 23.3N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 24.4N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 17/1800Z 25.4N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 26.3N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake/Putnam

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152034 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PUTNAM

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 152033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 114.4W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 114.4W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.8N 115.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.3N 117.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.4N 118.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 25.4N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.3N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 114.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PUTNAM

...MARIO A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM MST Mon Sep 15 the center of Mario was located near 20.8, -114.4 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 ...MARIO A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 114.4W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 114.4 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next few days. Satellite imagery indicates that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, with weakening likely to begin on Tuesday. Mario is anticipated to become a post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Putnam

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week as it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east
Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 14:38:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 15:22:19 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 14:38:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 14:38:20 GMT