National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 986 FOPZ12 KNHC 010235 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 86 3(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 120W 64 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 120W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 2 41(43) 8(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 63(70) 4(74) X(74) X(74) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 34(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 987 WTPZ32 KNHC 010235 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 ...GIL MOVING FASTER... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 118.5W ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 118.5 West. Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast, and Gil will likely become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...GIL MOVING FASTER... As of 5:00 PM HST Thu Jul 31 the center of Gil was located near 14.2, -118.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 447 WTPZ22 KNHC 010234 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 118.5W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 118.5W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 117.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.1N 120.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.4N 123.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.9N 127.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.4N 130.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 133.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.7N 137.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 22.9N 142.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 118.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

836
ABPZ20 KNHC 312314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southwest of
the Hawaiian Islands and Tropical Storm Gil, located well southwest
of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure located about 650 miles south-southeast of Hilo,
Hawaii, continue to persist. While the system currently lacks a
well-defined low-level center, some development is possible during
the next 24 hours. By this weekend, environmental conditions are
expected to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 20:36:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 21:27:24 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 20:36:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 20:36:40 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 312034 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 Gil has been holding steady since the last advisory. A scatterometer pass from 1729 UTC showed the low-level center near the northern edge of the Central Dense Overcast (CDO) suggesting the cyclone is experiencing moderate vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this cycle, in agreement with the TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. While the scatterometer pass only covered the western half of the storm, it did provide information used to update some of the tropical-storm-force radii. The motion is west-northwestward at 11 kt along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the Baja California peninsula. This general motion, with a gradual increase in forward speed, should continue through the weekend. By early next week, Gil should turn more westward in the trade winds. Only slight adjustments have been made to the latest official track forecast. Global models predict that the vertical wind shear should gradually abate over the next 12 hours or so. After this occurs, the warm sea surface temperatures and ample mid-level moisture should allow Gil to continue to strengthen for the next day or so. By Saturday, the storm is expected to cross the 26 degree isotherm and move over progressively cooler waters. This should induce a steady-to-rapid weakening trend through the end of the forecast period. Gil is still predicted to lose its organized deep convection and become a remnant low by day 4. The intensity guidance predictions have decreased somewhat this cycle and the official forecast now lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 13.5N 117.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.4N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 15.6N 122.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 17.0N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 19.7N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 20.7N 135.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 21.8N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1800Z 22.6N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 786 FOPZ12 KNHC 312034 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 53 45(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 4 75(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 120W 64 1 25(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 12(12) 41(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 33(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 2(41) X(41) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 792 WTPZ32 KNHC 312034 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 ...GIL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 117.2W ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 117.2 West. Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion with some acceleration is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Gil is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...GIL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Thu Jul 31 the center of Gil was located near 13.5, -117.2 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 774 WTPZ22 KNHC 312033 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 117.2W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW 20NW. 4 M SEAS....270NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 117.2W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 116.6W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.4N 119.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.6N 122.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.7N 132.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.7N 135.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 21.8N 141.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.6N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

424
ABPZ20 KNHC 311727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southwest of
the Hawaiian Islands and Tropical Storm Gil, located well
south-southwest of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure located about 650 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii,
continue to persist. While the system currently lacks a
well-defined low-level center, some development is possible during
the next 24 hours. By this weekend, environmental conditions are
expected to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of
southwestern Mexico in the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 14:36:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:27:03 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 14:36:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 14:36:59 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 311435 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 Gil continues to become better organized this morning. Geostationary infrared imagery show steady bursts of embedded deep convection with cloud top temperatures less than -80 degrees Celsius. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have increased this cycle and range between 35 to 46 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt, closest to the TAFB and UW-CIMSS DPRINT estimates. The storm is moving at 280/12 kt along the southern side of a subtropical ridge. This mid-level ridge will steer Gil generally west-northwestward for the next few days, with some increase in forward motion. By day 4, the weaker, more shallow cyclone is expected to turn more westward in the low-level flow. The track guidance envelope remains tightly clustered and only minor changes were made to the latest NHC track forecast. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear generally conducive for Gil to continue strengthening. Statistical indicators even suggest an above average possibility of strong-to-rapid intensification in the next day or so. Thus, the predicted peak intensity has been raised to 75 kt in 36 h based on these factors and an overall increase in the model intensity guidance. Gil is still expected to reach cooler waters and a dry, stable airmass in a couple of days which will cause steady weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast now shows Gil becoming a post-tropical cyclone by day 4, when global model show the cyclone will lose all convection. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 13.2N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 13.9N 118.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 15.0N 120.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 16.4N 124.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.8N 127.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 19.2N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 20.3N 134.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 21.7N 140.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 05/1200Z 22.2N 145.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 311434 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 1500 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 12 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 120W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 11 84(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 120W 50 X 71(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 120W 64 X 32(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 29(33) 9(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 59(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 11(45) X(45) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 897 WTPZ32 KNHC 311434 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 ...GIL STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 116.2W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 116.2 West. Gil is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected later today and this motion with some acceleration is forecast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gil is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...GIL STRENGTHENING... As of 5:00 AM HST Thu Jul 31 the center of Gil was located near 13.2, -116.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 311434 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 1500 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 116.2W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 50SW 20NW. 4 M SEAS....210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 116.2W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.9N 118.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.0N 120.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.4N 124.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.8N 127.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.2N 130.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.3N 134.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 21.7N 140.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 22.2N 145.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI