National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150236 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 X 25(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 115W 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/MAHONEY

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 130 WTPZ23 KNHC 150236 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.5W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.5W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.9N 112.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 114.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 116.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.4N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/MAHONEY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142326
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure, currently located
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form by the latter half of
this week while it moves west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms remain limited and disorganized associated
with a weak area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to support
further development of this system.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Bucci/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 20:34:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 21:21:39 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 20:34:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 20:34:03 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 200 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 A large, cold convective burst formed over the center of Mario around 13Z this morning and subsequently expanded, and the burst has persisted since that time. A 1657 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed several 34-38 kt vectors within 30 miles of Mario's center. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and 2.0/30 kt from SAB, while recent UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in the 40-45 kt range. Winds at Socorro Island, located less than 30 n mi west-southwest of the center, are up to 20 kt gusting to 29 kt, with a 1006 mb pressure. The initial intensity is increased to 40 kt for this advisory. The aforementioned ASCAT pass and surface observations from Socorro Island have been helpful at estimating the initial position of Mario, which is slightly to the east of the previous NHC forecast. The current motion of the cyclone is estimated to be slowly toward the west-northwest at 300/6 kt. This general motion should continue for the next few days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered over Mexico. The GFS and Google DeepMind models are on the right, or north side of the guidance envelope, whereas the ECMWF and HCCA lie on the left or southern side of the guidance. The latest NHC forecast is adjusted slightly to the right, or east, of the previous official forecast, fairly close to a blend of the latest HCCA and TVCE models. Mario will continue to be in a favorable environment for strengthening for another 24-30 hours, with low shear under 10 kt, warm sea-surface temperatures, and plenty of mid-level moisture. By hour 30, the sea-surface temperatures will be below 27C and then below 26C by hour 36. Around the same time, southwesterly shear will begin increasing while the mid-level moisture and instability plummet. These conditions favor the commencement of weakening on Monday night. All model guidance, including the latest hi-res hurricane models, do not show more than about 10 kt of additional strengthening. In fact, the latest intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance envelope through 24 h. Given the favorable environment for the next 24 h, a higher peak intensity in the 55-60 kt range should not be ruled out. By 36 h, the NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, which is closer to the middle of the guidance envelope. The cyclone should become a remnant low in 48-60 h and dissipate just beyond 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.9N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 19.6N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 20.4N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 21.5N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 22.8N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 24.0N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 24.9N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 023 FOPZ13 KNHC 142032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 2100 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 20N 115W 34 X 14(14) 17(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 142032 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 2100 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.7W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.7W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.6N 111.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.4N 113.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.5N 115.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.8N 117.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.0N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.9N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 110.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 142032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 200 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 ...MARIO STRENGTHENS AS IT PASSES NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 110.7W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 110.7 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Monday, followed by weakening beginning Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...MARIO STRENGTHENS AS IT PASSES NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 2:00 PM MST Sun Sep 14 the center of Mario was located near 18.9, -110.7 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has resumed issuing advisories on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is expected
to lead to the formation of an area of low pressure well offshore of
the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico later this week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form by the latter half of this week as the system moves
west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms remain limited and disorganized associated
with a weak area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. Environmental conditions do not appear favorable for
development over the next few days as the system moves westward
around 10 mph, remaining well south of the Hawaiian islands.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 14:45:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 15:22:12 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 14:45:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 14:45:12 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141443 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 Overnight and this morning, convection has increased in both coverage and organization with the remnants of Mario, which is now just east-southeast of Socorro Island. Earlier scatterometer data from a Metop-B pass at 0428 UTC indicated that a well-defined center had reformed with a peak wind retrieval of 27 kt. Given the improvement of the system's structure on satellite imagery since that time, it appears that Mario is now on its second life as a tropical cyclone. There was some question as to if this system was fully Mario, or some combination with another disturbance it is interacting with embedded in the monsoon trough to the south. However, there appears to be enough continuity between the prior circulation we were tracking near the coast of Mexico on Friday and the reformation of this new center to indicate this system is the same entity. The initial intensity this advisory is being set to 35 kt, in good agreement with the 12 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix of T2.5/35 kt, a DPRINT estimate of 36 kt at 13 UTC, and a recent pressure observation of 1005 mb at Socorro Island, which appears to be just to the northwest of the tropical storm. Mario is estimated to be moving slowly to the west-northwest at 285/7 kt. This general motion should continue for the next several days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered over Mexico. Beyond 48 hours, Mario will likely become a shallow tropical cyclone and bend more westward before it dissipates in 3-4 days. The NHC track forecast is in fairly good agreement with the guidance aids, and generally is close to the simple and corrected consensus aids. Mario is in a favorable environment currently, with low shear under 10 kt, warm sea-surface temperatures between 28-30C, and plenty of mid-level moisture. These favorable conditions persist for about 36 hours, and intensification is shown in the forecast, not that far off the most recent HAFS-B forecast. Afterwards, Mario will cross a very sharp temperature gradient while vertical wind shear also increases out of the southwest. Thus, Mario will likely weaken quickly between 48-60 h, losing its organized convection to become a shallow remnant low by 60 h, and dissipating entirely in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit on the high side of the overall guidance envelope, but is close to the peak intensity of the latest HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.5N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 19.9N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.1N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 23.4N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 141439 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 14 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141438 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 ...MARIO HAS A SECOND LIFE AS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 110.2W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 110.2 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast over the next day or two, followed by weakening by the middle part of this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...MARIO HAS A SECOND LIFE AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Sep 14 the center of Mario was located near 18.5, -110.2 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 141437 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.2W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.2W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.9N 113.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 117.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.4N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Baja California Peninsula (Ex-Mario):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized with
the the remnants of Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the
Baja California Peninsula. Earlier satellite wind data also
indicated the circulation had become better defined. If the ongoing
deep convection persists, Mario is likely to become a tropical
cyclone again, and advisories may be re-initiated as soon as later
this morning as the system moves slowly westward at around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early this week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as
the low tracks west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands have decreased since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive for development during the next few days as the system
moves westward around 10 mph, and the potential for tropical cyclone
development appears to be decreasing.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Papin

141
ABPZ20 KNHC 140549
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Baja California Peninsula:
An area of low pressure located south of the Baja California
Peninsula, which includes the remnants of Mario, is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of
next week as it tracks slowly westward.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as
the low tracks west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves westward around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema