National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...NORMA STRENGTHENING... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 the center of Norma was located near 13.7, -107.8 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 180235 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 107.8W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 30SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 107.8W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 108.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 108.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 108.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.2N 109.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.2N 109.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 21.3N 110.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.5N 109.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Norma, located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico.

South of Guatemala and Eastern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and eastern Mexico in a couple of days. Gradual
development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend
while the system meanders over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Norma are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Norma are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Oct 2023 20:18:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Oct 2023 21:22:56 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 172016 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts that the area the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico (EP90) has become better organized. Showers and thunderstorms have been consolidating, with curved band features developing around a recently well-defined low-level center. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T2.5/T3.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Given the improved satellite presentation and these intensity estimates, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Norma with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Norma is in a fairly conducive environment for intensification. Low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and favorable upper-level diffluence will likely lead to steady to rapid strengthening for the next few days. DTOPS and SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices are between 60 to 70 percent for a 55 kt increase over the next 48 hours, and the NHC forecast is near that value, explicitly forecasting RI between 12 to 36 hours. Towards the end of the forecast, increasing vertical wind shear and potential drier air intrusions could cause the system to gradually weaken. The NHC forecast lies just below the HCCA HFIP corrected consensus aids, and it is noted that the HAFS-A/B hurricane regional models show a higher, but still plausible, peak intensity. Norma is moving west-northwestward at an estimated motion of 285/9 kt. The system is expected to turn more northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed during the next few days around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. Towards the end of the forecast period as the system moves toward the Baja peninsula, there is a notable divergence among the model suite. A stronger vortex, as depicted in the GFS/CMC model, would be picked up by an approaching trough from the northwest and move the system northeastward towards the Baja peninsula. However, a weaker vortex would tend to meander south of the peninsula and be missed by the approaching trough, like the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. Since the NHC intensity forecast is on the strong side of the guidance, the official track is closer to the right side of the guidance envelope, more similar to the GFS and HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.2N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.8N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.0N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.0N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 108.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 18.7N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 20.9N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 22.5N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development of this system, and
a tropical depression is very likely to form within the next day or
so. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and
then turn northwestward and northward late in the week offshore of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and southern Mexico in a few days. Gradual development
of the disturbance is expected, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the
system meanders over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity extending several hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form in a few days while moving slowly westward and then
northwestward well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and southern Mexico by the middle of the week. Gradual
development of the disturbance will be possible, and a tropical
depression could form late this week as the system meanders over
the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142328
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 14 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Subsequent
development of the system is likely, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the middle to latter part of next week while
the system meanders well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Guatemala and El Salvador:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador by the middle of next week. Gradual
development of the disturbance will be possible after that while the
system meanders over the far eastern portion of the eastern North
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 13 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to
middle part of next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for additional development thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter part of the week
while meandering well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122311
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to
middle part of next week. Thereafter, some gradual development is
possible while the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112333
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 11 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in the early to middle
parts of next week. Thereafter, some gradual development is
possible as the system moves generally north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Oct 2023 23:56:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Oct 2023 20:11:27 GMT

Issued at 600 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 102356 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 600 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LIDIA MAKES LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 105.5W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Manzanillo to El Roblito A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * El Roblito to Mazatlan * Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite imagery indicates that the eye of Lidia has made landfall along the coast of west-central Mexico near Las Penitas in the state of Jalisco around 550 PM MDT (2350 UTC) with maximum winds estimated to be near 140 mph (220 km/h). At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located on the coast near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 105.5 West. Lidia is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly faster east-northeastward motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will move inland over west-central Mexico tonight and Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Lidia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected as Lidia moves inland tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where Lidia made landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the tropical storm warning areas. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102323
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 10 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lidia, located near the west-central coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LIDIA MAKES LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 the center of Lidia was located near 20.1, -105.5 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 942 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 102009 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Lidia became a major hurricane around 1800 UTC and has continued to intensify since that time. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters recently found that the minimum pressure has fallen significantly to 950 mb. In addition, the maximum 700-mb flight-level wind measured by the aircraft was 116 kt, which adjusts to about 105 kt at the surface. The maximum SFMR surface wind reported was 108 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 110 kt. Lidia has strengthened by a very impressive 50 kt over the past 24 hours. Although the eye has just become evident in geostationary satellite images, it has been clearly seen in microwave data for much of the day. Deep convection has been increasing in coverage and magnitude, and has become more symmetric during the past few hours. The outer rain bands of Lidia are beginning to spread across portions of west-central Mexico, and weather conditions are expected to steadily worsen into the evening. The center of Lidia is forecast to make landfall in west-central Mexico later this evening. As mentioned above, Lidia has rapidly strengthened over very warm SSTs and in a favorable upper-level wind pattern during the past day or so. Since the environmental conditions are not expected to change, Lidia could reach category 4 strength before it makes landfall. Rapid weakening is expected once the center moves inland, and Lidia is forecast to dissipate on Wednesday over the rugged terrain of central Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Lidia is expected to make landfall in west-central Mexico as a major hurricane this evening. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. 2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of west-central Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. 4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.6N 106.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 21.2N 104.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1800Z 23.2N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 102009 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) P VALLARTA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P VALLARTA 50 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) P VALLARTA 64 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MANZANILLO 34 45 X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 102008 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.6W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.6W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.2N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.2N 100.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 106.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 11/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 092357 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Max Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 ...MAX MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 101.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 101.2 West. Max has been moving due north over the last several hours, but it is expected to resume a motion toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This motion is expected to continue until dissipation as the cyclone moves further inland over southern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue as Max moves farther inland, with the storm expected to dissipate over Mexico late tonight or on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Max can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area and expected to continue through this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of Mexico for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

...MAX MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 the center of Max was located near 17.9, -101.2 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.