National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 14:59:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 15:39:51 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051458 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 Satellite imagery shows that Emilia remains a sheared cyclone this morning, with the low-level center located near the northeastern edge of a large convective mass with cloud tops to near -85C. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have nudged upward to the 35-40 kt range, and the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. The latest global model runs continue to suggest that Emilia will be the survivor in interaction with the newly formed Tropical Storm Fabio to the east, and the intensity forecast is based on this scenario and the expectation of continued moderate easterly shear. The forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and forecasts a peak intensity of 60 kt in 48 h. After that time, Emilia is expected to slowly weaken as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures. The new forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast. It should be noted that this forecast is low confidence due to the possibility that Fabio might still end up as the dominant cyclone. Interaction with Fabio should steer Emilia south-southwestward to southward for the next 12 h or so. After that, a turn toward the northwest or north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected as Emilia start to absorb Fabio. After Fabio dissipates in about 60 h, Emilia should generally move west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The first 96 h of the forecast track have been adjusted somewhat based on the GFS and Canadian model forecasts of the interaction between Emilia and Fabio. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.5N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 13.9N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 14.4N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.9N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 18.2N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 19.6N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 20.8N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 22.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 051456 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 13(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 29 31(60) 18(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 115W 50 X 13(13) 21(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 15N 115W 64 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 52(57) X(57) X(57) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 981 WTPZ35 KNHC 051456 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 ...EMILIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 114.1W ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 114.1 West. Emilia is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. A sharp turn toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...EMILIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM MST Mon Aug 5 the center of Emilia was located near 14.5, -114.1 with movement SSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 051455 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 114.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 195 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 114.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 114.1W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.9N 114.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.9N 115.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.2N 117.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.6N 119.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.8N 122.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 14:50:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 15:45:30 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 051449 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FABIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 28(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 051449 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the disturbance located well southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico has continued to become better organized, and that it now has sufficient convection and a well-enough defined circulation to be considered a tropical cyclone. With an initial intensity of 35 kt based on earlier scatterometer data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Fabio. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 310/10. Fabio's motion should be dominated by interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia to the west, with Fabio expected to move northwestward and westward at an increased forward speed around the north side of Emilia through the next 48 h. The intensity forecast is based on the global model forecasts that Fabio will wind up being absorbed into Emilia in the not too distant future. Some strengthening is expected during the next 12-24 h. After that, the global models are forecasting that Fabio will dissipate as it is absorbed into Emilia by the 60 h point. The intensity forecast and dissipation time lean toward the GFS and Canadian model solutions, which keep Fabio separate from Emilia through about 48 h. This forecast is low confidence due to the possibility that Fabio could try to absorb Emilia. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.8N 106.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 16.3N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 17.6N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 18.2N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 14:48:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 15:34:12 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 051448 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 106.9W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 106.9W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.3N 109.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.6N 112.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.2N 115.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 051448 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 106.9W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 106.9 West. Fabio is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a faster forward speed today. A turn toward the west is expected on Tuesday, with this motion continuing through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today. After that, Fabio is expected to weaken, and the system is expected to be absorbed by Tropical Storm Emilia Wednesday night or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED... As of 8:00 AM MST Mon Aug 5 the center of Fabio was located near 14.8, -106.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051448 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Daniel's organization continues to decrease, and it has become difficult to distinguish Daniel from the surrounding ITCZ/Monsoon Trough convection. Subjective and objective intensity estimates vary around 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. It is very hard to determine how well-defined Daniel's surface circulation is, so its possible that the cyclone is already near dissipation, but this will be easier to determine after the sun has been up over Daniel for longer. Regardless, the system should not be around as a tropical cyclone for much longer as it is quickly moving into a more hostile environment. Some intensity models, including the GFS, indicate Daniel could dissipate as soon as this afternoon. Even if it maintains its circulation for a few days, all models suggest it will lose deep convection by tomorrow evening and become a remnant low. Daniel has accelerated slightly toward the east-northeast, and should continue heading in that direction today, within low- to mid-level southwesterly monsoonal flow. After that, dynamical models continue to indicate that Daniel or its remnants will bend northward, and then westward, around the outer circulation of Carlotta. The NHC forecast continues to closely follow the consensus models and is very similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.6N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 16.6N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 18.0N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 18.9N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 19.3N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0000Z 19.0N 129.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 051447 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...DANIEL FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 127.7W ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 127.7 West. Daniel is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). Daniel is forecast to turn toward the north tonight and tomorrow, and then continue turning toward the west by mid-week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakenind is expected. Daniel will likely become a post-tropical remnant low by mid-week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...DANIEL FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOON... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Daniel was located near 15.6, -127.7 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 051447 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 051447 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 127.7W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 127.7W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.1W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.6N 126.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.0N 125.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.9N 126.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 127.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 14:47:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 15:28:37 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 740 WTPZ43 KNHC 051446 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 If not for a recent small burst of convection nearly 60 n mi from its center, Carlotta would be devoid of organized deep convection. The intensity estimate remains 40 kt, close to a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. Deep convection may persist today, but could cease at just about any time due to cold waters beneath Carlotta and a surounding dry and stable environment. By this time tomorrow, Carlotta should be a post-tropical cyclone. Carlotta's initial motion remains 280/8kt. This general motion should continue today as long as Carlotta maintains some deep convection. A slight left turn toward the west-southwest should begin once the last of Carlotta's convection is gone. No significant changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 20.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 20.5N 128.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 20.3N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 19.8N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 19.3N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky