National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING AND HAS AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... As of 2:00 PM MST Sun Aug 4 the center of Five-E was located near 15.5, -113.2 with movement S at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 042037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 113.2W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 113.2W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.8N 113.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.9N 113.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.7N 113.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.2N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 042037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEPRESSION DRIFTING AND HAS AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 113.2W ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 113.2 West. The depression is drifting toward the south near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a slow generally southward motion is expected to continue into Monday. A sharp turn back toward the north or northwest is possible by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected and the depression forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow. The cyclone will then begin to interact with a large disturbance approaching from the east, which is expected to cause this system to dissipate or merge with the large disturbance in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 20:37:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 21:35:24 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 042036 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 While the overall convective activity has increased some this afternoon, it certainly is not very well organized, and mainly occuring in a bursting like fashion around Daniel's circulation. The wind field itself also appears more elongated than 24 h ago, stretched from SW-to-NE, possibly due to interaction with the larger monsoonal flow. This elongated structure is also seen on a recent scatterometer pass. The subjective and objective intensity guidance continues to suggest the current intensity remains 35 kt. Daniel appears to have started its northeastward motion in earnest, with the estimated motion at 50/7-kt. This motion is forecast to continue over the next day or so as it remains embedded in the southwesterly monsoonal flow to the south of Carlotta. As that tropical storm passes by Daniel to the north, the model guidance shows Daniel being captured by Carlotta's larger cyclonic flow with a turn north and northwestward before it opens up into a trough. The NHC track forecast has not deviated much from the prior forecast, once again close to the multi-model consensus. Vertical wind shear has subsided over Daniel today, but the current elongated structure and bursting convection does not really argue for much in the way of intensification. Like the past few cycles, the NHC intensity forecast shows just a modest peak at 40 kt in 24 h. Mid-level environmental moisture decreases further after that time, with the global and regional-hurricane models showing convection fizzling and ceasing to be organized after 48 h, marking Daniel's transition to a post-tropical remnant low. The low should dissipate entirely during the middle part of this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 13.4N 129.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.0N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 18.4N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 19.3N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z 19.9N 130.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 042035 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 042035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DANIEL NOW MOVING NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 129.9W ABOUT 1465 MI...2355 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 129.9 West. Daniel is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DANIEL NOW MOVING NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Daniel was located near 13.4, -129.9 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 042035 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 129.9W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 129.9W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 130.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.4N 126.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.3N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 129.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 20:35:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 21:29:21 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 042034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Carlotta continues to steadily spin down over cool waters. While it is still producing a small area of moderate convection, mostly to the west of its center, Carlotta is otherwise free of deep convection at this time. The intensity estimate has been lowered further to 50 kt based on a blend of Final-T and CI Dvorak numbers from TAFB, however this could be generous since most objective estimates are a little lower. Carlotta has moved south of previous forecasts, perhaps responding to shallow-layer steering sooner than previously expected due to its lack of recent convection. Therefore, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward, but is still near the multi-model consensus. Overall, Carlotta is still forecast to move generally westward for the next few days, slowing slightly and perhaps turning west-southwestward near mid-week as it becomes post-tropical. The tropical storm should lose its remaining deep convection during the next day or two while it continues to move over cool SSTs and through a stable surrounding environment. This will ultimately cause Carlotta to dissipate in about three days, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.9N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.1N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 20.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 20.4N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z 20.2N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 042033 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 125W 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 042033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 125.0W ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 125.0 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated and Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low in a day or two. The subsequent remnant low is expected to dissipate around mid-week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Carlotta was located near 19.9, -125.0 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 042032 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 125.0W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 90SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 125.0W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 124.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.1N 126.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.4N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.2N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041751
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, on Tropical Storm Daniel, and on newly formed
Tropical Depression Five-E, all located well offshore of the coast
of Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental
conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form as soon as this afternoon while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the coast of Mexico. For more information of this
system, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:39:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 15:29:09 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:37:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 15:41:02 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:36:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 15:35:04 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Daniel's convective structure continues to sputter along, with the coldest cloud tops organized in two regions to the northeast and southwest of the center, which appears to be mostly exposed this morning. The latest round of both subjective and objective intensity guidance has not changed much from overnight, and so the initial intensity remains 35 kt this advisory. It appears that the tropical storm is finally starting to track more north-northeastward this morning, with the estimated motion at 030/4 kt. A somewhat faster northeastward motion is expected to begin later today through Monday as Daniel's motion is influenced by the southwesterly monsoonal flow being picked up by Carlotta passing to the north. The global models still show a turn north and northwestward as Daniel gets caught in the outer periphery of Carlotta's larger circulation. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the prior advisory, close to the multi-model consensus. While the vertical wind shear that was previously affecting Daniel is starting to subside, there is quite a bit of environmental dry air to the north of the storm, which will likely keep it in check, and only a modest amount of intensification is forecasted. After 48 h, this dry air is expected to fully envelop the circulation, choking off the remaining convection, marking the storm's transition to a post-tropical remnant low. The low is finally forecast to open up into a trough by midweek. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.2N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 13.9N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.3N 127.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 16.8N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 17.8N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 18.7N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 18.9N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin