National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050236 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050236 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DANIEL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 129.9W ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 129.9 West. Daniel is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...POORLY ORGANIZED DANIEL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Daniel was located near 14.2, -129.9 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050235 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 129.9W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 129.9W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 128.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.6N 127.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.9N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 129.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 02:35:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 03:29:08 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 042 FOPZ13 KNHC 050233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 130W 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 053 WTPZ43 KNHC 050233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Conventional satellite imagery shows only a few fragments of deep convection remaining this evening, just to the northeast of the surface circulation center. Consequently, the cyclone is too weak to classify based on the Dvorak satellite intensity technique. The initial intensity is based on a blend of the UW-CIMSS objective current intensity guidance, which yields 45 kt. Carlotta's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt, and should continue moving in this trajectory with some increase in forward speed during the next day or so. Afterward, the cyclone is expected to slow down a bit while turning west-southwestward on Tuesday as it weakens further and becomes a post-tropical remnant low. Dissipation is forecast to occur in 60 hours, or possibly sooner, while the remnant low moves over cooler water and through a dry/stable air mass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 20.1N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 20.3N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 20.5N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 20.2N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 050233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...CARLOTTA GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 125.7W ABOUT 1035 MI...1660 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 125.7 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Carlotta is expected to become a remnant low on Tuesday, and dissipate by the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...CARLOTTA GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Carlotta was located near 20.1, -125.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050232 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 125.7W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 105SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 125.7W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 125.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.3N 126.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.5N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.2N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 125.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042322
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, on Tropical Storm Daniel, and on Tropical Depression
Five-E, all located well offshore of the coast of Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental
conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form tonight or on Monday while the system
moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the coast of Mexico. For more information on this
system, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 20:39:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 21:41:19 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 042038 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 14(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 042038 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 The depression has changed little in organization today, as a broad area of showers and thunderstorms with some modest banding is present on the western side of the low-level circulation. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and a partial ASCAT-C pass at 1747 UTC both suggest that the initial intensity remains 30 kt this afternoon. The track forecast for TD Five-E is very dependent on a disturbance to the east of the system (96E), which has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next day or so. Most of the global models show both of these systems interacting with and rotating cyclonically around each other. A variety of different model solutions are depicted, from TD Five-E becoming absorbed by the larger 96E, to TD Five-E remaining dominant, or a near equal merger of both systems in the 48-60 h forecast time frame. For this cycle, the NHC track forecast still shows TD Five-E being absorbed by 96E and dissipating beyond 48 h, though this is far from certain. It is possible one of the other two scenarios mentioned above could pan out. Most of the track guidance due to the interaction initially show a southward motion that swings rapidly back north or northwest over the next couple of days before the vortex trackers cannot distinguish between the two systems. As mentioned this morning though, dynamical models historically handle interaction cases like this poorly, so confidence in the track forecast is quite low, despite the agreement between the dynamical guidance of this binary interaction. Until the disturbance to the east starts to interact with TD Five-E, the environment appears relatively favorable for some intensification, and the NHC intensity forecast shows strengthening into a 45 kt tropical storm over the next 24-36 h, prior to the system's forecast absorption. Note that the interaction of the two systems also results in a dramatic expansion of the 34-kt wind radii by 48 h, which should be considered more of the combined wind field of both features. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 15.5N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 14.8N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 13.9N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 13.7N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 15.2N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING AND HAS AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... As of 2:00 PM MST Sun Aug 4 the center of Five-E was located near 15.5, -113.2 with movement S at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 042037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 113.2W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 113.2W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.8N 113.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.9N 113.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.7N 113.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.2N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 042037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEPRESSION DRIFTING AND HAS AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 113.2W ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 113.2 West. The depression is drifting toward the south near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a slow generally southward motion is expected to continue into Monday. A sharp turn back toward the north or northwest is possible by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected and the depression forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow. The cyclone will then begin to interact with a large disturbance approaching from the east, which is expected to cause this system to dissipate or merge with the large disturbance in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 20:37:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 21:35:24 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 042036 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 While the overall convective activity has increased some this afternoon, it certainly is not very well organized, and mainly occuring in a bursting like fashion around Daniel's circulation. The wind field itself also appears more elongated than 24 h ago, stretched from SW-to-NE, possibly due to interaction with the larger monsoonal flow. This elongated structure is also seen on a recent scatterometer pass. The subjective and objective intensity guidance continues to suggest the current intensity remains 35 kt. Daniel appears to have started its northeastward motion in earnest, with the estimated motion at 50/7-kt. This motion is forecast to continue over the next day or so as it remains embedded in the southwesterly monsoonal flow to the south of Carlotta. As that tropical storm passes by Daniel to the north, the model guidance shows Daniel being captured by Carlotta's larger cyclonic flow with a turn north and northwestward before it opens up into a trough. The NHC track forecast has not deviated much from the prior forecast, once again close to the multi-model consensus. Vertical wind shear has subsided over Daniel today, but the current elongated structure and bursting convection does not really argue for much in the way of intensification. Like the past few cycles, the NHC intensity forecast shows just a modest peak at 40 kt in 24 h. Mid-level environmental moisture decreases further after that time, with the global and regional-hurricane models showing convection fizzling and ceasing to be organized after 48 h, marking Daniel's transition to a post-tropical remnant low. The low should dissipate entirely during the middle part of this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 13.4N 129.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.0N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 18.4N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 19.3N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z 19.9N 130.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 042035 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN