National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 041434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DANIEL BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 130.4W ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 130.4 West. Daniel is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is forecast later today and Monday, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DANIEL BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Daniel was located near 13.2, -130.4 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 041433 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 130.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 130.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 130.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.9N 129.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.3N 127.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.8N 126.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.8N 126.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.7N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.9N 127.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041210 CCA
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Corrected to update active systems and include statement for gale
warnings for EP96.

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Carlotta, located several hundred miles to
the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Daniel, located more than one
thousand miles to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with a broad area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico. Environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. For
more information of this system, including Gale Warnings, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development
over the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during that time while the system meanders within weak steering
currents. Thereafter, the system is forecast to interact with the
disturbance (EP96) to its southeast, which should limit the chances
of further development afterwards.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Papin/D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041139
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Daniel, located more than one thousand miles to the west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with a broad area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico. Environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development
over the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during that time while the system meanders within weak steering
currents. Thereafter, the system is forecast to interact with the
disturbance (EP96) to its southeast, which should limit the chances
of further development afterwards.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Papin/D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 08:50:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 09:34:55 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 649 WTPZ44 KNHC 040849 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Daniel is not a particularly well organized tropical cyclone, and the satellite presentation suggests the storm could be elongated from southwest to northeast. However, it continues to produce some deep convection near the estimated center position. Unfortunately, recent scatterometer data swaths missed Daniel overnight. The latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT and AiDT estimates as well as the subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB support keeping the initial intensity at 35 kt. The initial position of Daniel is uncertain, but it appears the storm is presently drifting northward. A faster northeastward motion is expected later today through Monday due to increasing southwesterly low- to mid-level flow while Tropical Storm Carlotta passes to the north. Most of the global models show Daniel becoming caught in the outer circulation of Carlotta, and the updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted beyond 36 h to show Daniel slowing down and turning toward the north and northwest later in the period. These adjustments reflect the latest trends in the multi-model consensus aids. In the short term, the moderate northeasterly shear that has plagued Daniel is forecast to diminish. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows a bit of strengthening during the next day or so, but this is primarily related to the northeastward acceleration of the storm as opposed to significant deepening of the low. As Daniel make a counter-clockwise turn around the outer circulation of Carlotta, it appears that significant dry air entrainment will make it difficult for the storm to sustain organized convection. The NHC forecast indicates Daniel will weaken to a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate around midweek. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 12.5N 130.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 13.3N 129.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 16.9N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 17.8N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 18.7N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 840 FOPZ14 KNHC 040847 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 290 WTPZ34 KNHC 040847 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DANIEL STILL DRIFTING OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 130.6W ABOUT 1535 MI...2475 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 130.6 West. Daniel is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is forecast later today and Monday, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...DANIEL STILL DRIFTING OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Daniel was located near 12.5, -130.6 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 040846 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 130.6W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 130.6W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 130.6W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.3N 129.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.9N 126.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.8N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.7N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 130.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 08:43:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 09:29:07 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Carlotta has continued to weaken overnight. Central deep convection has collapsed, and the low-level center appears to be at least partially exposed in proxy-visible satellite images. As a result, the satellite-based intensity estimates have decreased. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this advisory, which makes Carlotta a tropical storm. The storm is expected to move over progressively cooler SSTs over the next few days while encountering stronger deep-layer shear in a drier, more stable environment. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast, and Carlotta is likely to lose organized convection and become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. After that, the shallow cyclone should spin down and dissipate around midweek. Carlotta continues to move west-northwestward at around 10 kt while being steered by a deep-layer ridge centered to its north and east. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. As the system weakens, the shallow vortex should move westward within the low-level steering currents. There are no significant changes to the latest NHC track prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 19.9N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 20.2N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.7N 126.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 21.5N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 21.6N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 21.7N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 206 FOPZ13 KNHC 040841 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 64 18(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 20N 125W 50 10 19(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040841 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...CARLOTTA NOW A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 123.0W ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 123.0 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Monday, with a gradual turn toward the west on Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected over the next few days, and Carlotta is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula are expected to diminish today. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...CARLOTTA NOW A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Carlotta was located near 19.9, -123.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 392 WTPZ23 KNHC 040841 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 123.0W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 123.0W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 122.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 124.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.7N 126.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 129.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.6N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.7N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 123.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040529
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Daniel, located more than one thousand miles to the west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP97):
Satellite-derived wind data indicate an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles to the south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Although its shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized,
environmental conditions appear conducive for some development, and
a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days
while the system meanders within weak steering currents. Thereafter,
the system is forecast to interact with the disturbance (EP96) to
its southeast, which should limit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 826 WTPZ44 KNHC 040240 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Deep convection associated with Daniel continues to pulse this evening. The convection is not well organized in bands, but it has recently moved closer to the low-level center. Subjective Dvorak current intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB remain T2.0 or 30 kt, but the initial intensity is once again held at 35 kt in deference to the earlier scatterometer data and the fact that there has been little overall change in organization. The intensity forecast reasoning remains the same as before. Moderate northeasterly shear and dry mid-level air is likely to prevent significant strengthening overnight. On Sunday, the shear is forecast to relax some which could allow the cyclone to strengthen slightly while it traverses warm sea surface temperatures. By 48 hours, Daniel is likely to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and reaches a more stable environment. The cyclone is likely to cease producing organized deep convection in about 60 hours, and it is forecast to become a remnant low around that time. Daniel has moved very little since the previous advisory, but a slow northward motion is expected to begin shortly. The cyclone should start moving faster toward the northeast on Sunday as southwesterly low to mid-level flow around Hurricane Carlotta increases. After 48 h, the influence of Carlotta's outer circulation should cause the weaker Daniel to turn more northward or north-northwestward before it becomes a remnant low. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory through 36-48 hours, and it adjusted slightly westward thereafter to be closer to the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 12.3N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 13.1N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 14.2N 129.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 15.6N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 17.1N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 18.5N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 19.6N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

...DANIEL LOITERING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Daniel was located near 12.3, -130.5 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.