National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 831 WTPZ43 KNHC 031443 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 This morning Carlotta might be near or just past its peak intensity. The smaller inner-core we had been observing over the last day or so has become a bit broader, with an AMSR-2 microwave pass at 0943 UTC showing that an eyewall replacement cycle has been underway. Intensity estimates this morning are about the same as they were last night, and given the structural evolution seen on satellite, the initial intensity is being held at 80 kt. Carlotta continues to move westward to west-northwestward at 285/12-kt. A gradual slow down in the hurricane's forward motion is expected over the next few days as it reaches the westward extent of a deep-layer ridge. After that time, Carlotta is expected to become more vertically shallow, which should ultimately cause the cyclone to turn back westward towards the end of the forecast period. Only minor adjustments were made in the forecast track this cycle, and the latest NHC forecast remains in good agreement with the consensus aids which are tightly clustered with the overall model guidance. With the aforementioned eyewall replacement cycle ongoing, Carlotta has likely run out of time to intensify much more in the short-term, especially since the hurricane will be crossing the 26 C isotherm in 12 hours. Thus, no more intensification is shown in the latest NHC forecast, with gradual weakening expected to begin on Sunday. This weakening will likely be hastened by an abrupt increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear after 24 h as indicated by the SHIPS guidance, and Carlotta is likely to become a remnant low before the end of the forecast period as its remaining organized convection dissipates as seen in simulated IR from the GFS/ECMWF. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 19.0N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 19.2N 121.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.7N 123.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 20.4N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.9N 127.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 21.2N 128.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 21.4N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 21.5N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z 21.5N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 031442 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 80 X(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) 20N 125W 34 1 24(25) 55(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 20N 125W 50 X 3( 3) 39(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 20N 125W 64 X 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 031442 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...CARLOTTA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 120.0W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 120.0 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change is strength is expected today, but weakening should begin by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are gradually subsiding, and should diminish by Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...CARLOTTA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Carlotta was located near 19.0, -120.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 751 WTPZ23 KNHC 031441 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.0W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.0W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 119.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.2N 121.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.7N 123.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 125.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.9N 127.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 128.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.4N 130.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 120.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Earlier satellite-derived wind data showed a well-defined area of
low pressure located located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula that was producing
winds of up to 35-40 mph just west of the center. In addition,
shower and thunderstorm activity has developed a little closer to
the center this morning. If these convective trends continue, this
system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm
before environmental conditions become unfavorable for development
in a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a broad
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 08:57:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 09:29:11 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030856 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Carlotta has become a little better organized over the past several hours. An eye has occasionally been apparent in satellite images and deep convection remains most organized on the south side of the circulation. There are some intrusions of dry air, however, that have caused gaps in the deep convective pattern north of the center. A blend of the latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates support nudging up the initial intensity to 80 kt. Carlotta is a compact hurricane with recent ASCAT-B data showing that the tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds are estimated to only extend about 10 n mi from the center. The hurricane could strengthen a little more while it remains in conducive environmental conditions, but the window for intensification should close by this evening. Steady weakening is expected to begin tonight once Carlotta crosses the 26 C SST isotherm and moves into an environment of increasing vertical wind shear and drier air. Carlotta will likely fall below hurricane strength on Sunday and weaken to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the guidance. Carlotta is moving westward at 12 kt. A west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower pace is expected during the next few days as the hurricane moves toward the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. However, once Carlotta becomes a weak and shallow system by the middle of next week, it will likely turn back westward in the low-level flow. Little change was made to the previous track forecast, and this one is close to the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 18.9N 118.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 19.1N 120.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.5N 122.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.7N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 21.1N 128.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 21.4N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 22.1N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z 22.1N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 030855 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 84 2(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 20N 120W 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 125W 34 X 6( 6) 59(65) 10(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 20N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 14(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 030855 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 118.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 118.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.1N 120.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 122.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.7N 126.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 128.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.4N 129.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 22.1N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 22.1N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 118.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 030855 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 118.9W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 118.9 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible today, but weakening should begin by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are gradually subsiding, and should diminish by Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Carlotta was located near 18.9, -118.9 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030531
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little less organized in
association with an area of low pressure located well to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. This system could still become a short-lived tropical
depression before environmental conditions become unfavorable for
development in a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
few hundred miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 02:50:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 03:31:32 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 275 WTPZ43 KNHC 030248 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Carlotta has changed little in structure this evening. Infrared geostationary satellite imagery continues to show hints of a clouded eye embedded in a central dense overcast with upper-level outflow present in all quadrants. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.5/77-kt and objective estimates range between 71-82 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is held at 75 kt in the middle of these estimates. The hurricane is moving westward at about 12 kt. A ridge centered over the southwestern United States is forecast to steer Carlotta westward for another day or so. Later this weekend, the hurricane is expected to turn to the west-northwest around the southwest edge of the ridge. Carlotta should turn back to the west as it weakens later in the forecast period. Only minor adjustments have been made to the latest NHC track forecast. The window for additional strengthening is growing smaller. Within a day, Carlotta is expected to be over cooler ocean waters and begin weakening. By Sunday night or Monday morning, the vertical wind shear is forecast to notably increase and steadily weaken the hurricane. Simulated satellite imagery from global models indicate that Carlotta should lose its convection by day 4. The official intensity forecast is above most guidance in the near-term prediction, and closer to the various consensus aids for the remainder of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.8N 117.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.0N 119.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.3N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 20.8N 127.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.2N 129.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z 22.2N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 764 FOPZ13 KNHC 030247 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 64 20(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 20N 120W 50 7 15(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 120W 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 43(45) 30(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 27(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 317 WTPZ33 KNHC 030247 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...HURRICANE CARLOTTA HEADING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 117.9W ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 117.9 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. By Saturday night, a turn to the west-northwest is forecast. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast within the next day, followed by steady weakening through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are beginning to subside and should diminish by Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...HURRICANE CARLOTTA HEADING WESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 the center of Carlotta was located near 18.8, -117.9 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 622 WTPZ23 KNHC 030246 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 117.9W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 117.9W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 119.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.3N 121.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 127.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 129.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 22.2N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022351
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little
in organization since earlier today. Despite marginal environmental
conditions, a tropical depression could form over the next day or so
as the low meanders. By late this weekend, environmental conditions
are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development as
the system moves northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the
south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci