National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 097 WTPZ23 KNHC 020846 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 113.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 113.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.6N 115.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.9N 117.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.4N 122.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 124.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.2N 126.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 21.5N 132.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 113.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020517
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
A broad area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Marginal environmental
conditions are expected to limit development of this system during
the next couple of days. The low is forecast to meander over open
waters during the next day or so, then move northeastward by late
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America and southern Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is
expected to form from this system during the next day or so, and
thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 805 WTPZ43 KNHC 020246 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 Carlotta continues to hold steady. Geostationary satellite imagery show a healthy central dense overcast with periodic overshooting cloud tops. Recent microwave satellite imagery from AMSR2 and SSMIS reveal a more asymmetric low-level circulation. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 48-61 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The storm is moving at an estimated 285/10 kt along the south side of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The strengthening ridge is expected to turn Carlotta westward within a day or so and steer the storm slightly north of west for the remainder of the forecast period. The official forecast has again shifted slightly northward, largely due to the estimated initial center location, and lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus model. While the deep layer vertical wind shear appears to be weak, the microwave satellite imagery suggested Carlotta could be experiencing some moderate mid-level shear. Models indicate the generally conducive environmental and oceanic conditions should allow for additional strengthening within the next day or two. Beyond 48 h, cooling waters and more marginal environmental conditions should weaken Carlotta through the end of the forecast period. The intensity forecast remains similar to the previous forecast and lies near the top of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.9N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.3N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 18.6N 116.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.8N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 19.1N 121.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 19.4N 123.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 19.7N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 20.2N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 020245 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 90 8(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ISLA CLARION 50 48 34(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) ISLA CLARION 64 17 26(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 20N 115W 34 2 11(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 46(48) 30(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 10(10) 28(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 62(68) 8(76) X(76) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 7(38) X(38) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 10(27) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 020245 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 112.8W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 112.8W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 112.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.3N 114.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.6N 116.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.8N 119.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 121.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 123.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.7N 124.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.2N 128.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 020245 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 ...CARLOTTA HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 112.8W ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 112.8 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the west on Friday and a continued westward motion through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane either tonight or tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta will affect the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula beginning soon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...CARLOTTA HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM MST Thu Aug 1 the center of Carlotta was located near 17.9, -112.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012338
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located several hundred miles west of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginal for development of this
system during the next couple of days while it drifts slowly
westward. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to
become increasingly unfavorable, and further development is not
expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is
likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Aug 2024 20:49:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Aug 2024 21:22:49 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 583 WTPZ43 KNHC 012046 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 Carlotta has changed little in organization since the last advisory, with satellite imagery showing a well-defined central dense overcast with a complex of outer bands in the eastern semicircle. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are mainly in the 45-55 kt range, and they have nudged upward a little over the past six hours. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt. The initial motion is now 285/10 kt. Carlotta is on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge located over the southwestern United States and the adjacent northeastern Pacific. The ridge is expected to strengthen during the next day or two, and this should steer the cyclone more westward during this time. After about 60 h, Carlotta should move west-northwestward as it approaches a weakness in the mid-level part of the ridge caused by a large trough over the north Central Pacific. The track guidance has again shifted northward, and the new forecast track, which is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model, has also been shifted northward. Carlotta is expected to remain in an area of light shear for the next 48 h, with sea surface temperatures slowly decreasing along the forecast track during that time. Thus strengthening is expected, although the intensity guidance is forecasting less strengthening than on the previous cycles. Based on this, the forecast peak intensity has been decreased slightly, and the 85-kt peak intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance. After 48 h, increasing westerly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures should cause Carlotta to weaken for the remainder of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.5N 111.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.9N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 18.2N 115.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 18.4N 117.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 18.6N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 18.9N 122.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 19.2N 123.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 012044 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 2100 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 13 82(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ISLA CLARION 50 2 71(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) ISLA CLARION 64 X 39(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 1 13(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 48(62) 8(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 51(54) 17(71) 1(72) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 16(34) X(34) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 18(30) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 012043 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 ...CARLOTTA PASSING SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 111.9W ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 111.9 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the west on Friday and a continued westward motion through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane either tonight or tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The Mexican navy station on Socorro Island recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta will affect the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CARLOTTA PASSING SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 2:00 PM MST Thu Aug 1 the center of Carlotta was located near 17.5, -111.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 012043 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 2100 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.9W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.9W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.9N 113.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.2N 115.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.4N 117.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 120.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.9N 122.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.2N 123.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity
around its center. Environmental conditions appear marginal for some
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
drifts slowly westward. By this weekend, environmental conditions
are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable, and further
development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is
likely to form by this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Aug 2024 14:51:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Aug 2024 15:22:53 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011449 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 After intensifying over the past 12 to 18 hours, Carlotta is taking a brief pause as the inner-core becomes better established, though the system is still quite healthy looking on satellite imagery with plenty of curved bands around a formative central dense overcast (CDO). A blend of the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates still support an intensity of 50-kt this advisory, which is also roughly in the middle of objective intensity guidance. Carlotta continues to move west-northwestward at 295/10-kt. This motion is caused by a prominent deep-layer ridge located over the southwestern United States, and Carlotta may turn more back westward over the next few days as this ridge continues to strengthen. However by day 3 and beyond, the tropical cyclone will begin to feel a weakness to the north, which will likely result in a gradual slowdown in its forward motion and another gentle shift more poleward in the track. The latest track guidance is ever so slightly further north and faster compared to the previous cycle. Thus, the NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit in that direction, roughly in between the prior track forecast, and the reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. Environmental conditions still appear quite favorable for intensification, with warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and low to moderate shear between 10-15 kt out of the northwest. The rate of intensification may be determined more by how Carlotta's inner-core evolves, and there have not been any recent microwave images to diagnose the current structure. The SHIPS rapid intensification index is a little lower than last night, though this could also be in response to the temporary pause in the intensification. However the last few GOES-18 images suggest the CDO is becoming better established though an eye has yet to fully appear on first-light visible imagery. Even though the intensity guidance has shifted a little lower than last night, I have elected to keep the same intensification rate in the NHC forecast from the last cycle over the next 24 hours. This forecast is in better agreement with the regional-hurricane models HAFS-A/B versus the lower consensus aids that have been influenced by the lower SHIPS and LGEM guidance. After 48-60 hours, SSTs begin to markedly decrease along the forecast track, dropping under 26 C in 96 hours. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening between days 3 to 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 17.2N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 17.9N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 18.2N 114.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 18.3N 117.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 18.4N 119.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 18.6N 121.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 19.0N 122.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 19.5N 125.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 297 FOPZ13 KNHC 011447 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 2 91(93) 3(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ISLA CLARION 50 X 64(64) 10(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) ISLA CLARION 64 X 36(36) 9(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 1 20(21) 12(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 45(51) 18(69) 1(70) 1(71) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 36(64) 4(68) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 3(29) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 293 WTPZ33 KNHC 011447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 ...CARLOTTA STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 111.0W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 111.0 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west on Friday and a continued westward motion through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane either tonight or tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta will affect the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...CARLOTTA STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW... As of 8:00 AM MST Thu Aug 1 the center of Carlotta was located near 17.2, -111.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.