National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 08:37:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 09:22:43 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260836 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Bud is currently only generating isolated patches of deep convection to the south and southwest of the center. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease and are now in the 30-40 kt range. Using these data, the initial intensity is lowered to a somewhat uncertain 35 kt. The initial motion is now 285/9 kt. Bud is on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the cyclone generally westward today. After that, Bud or its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow. The guidance again has nudged to the north of the previous guidance, and the new forecast track is thus also nudged northward. While it is possible there could be one more convective flare-up this morning, all of the guidance indicates that Bud should continue to weaken due to moving over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a more stable air mass. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Bud to weaken to a depression later today and degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 24 h. The remnant low is forecast to dissipated between 60-72 h based on the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.8N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 18.9N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1800Z 18.7N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z 18.4N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1800Z 18.0N 126.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 184 FOPZ12 KNHC 260835 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0900 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 260835 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 ...BUD CONTINUING TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 118.9W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 118.9 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A slower west-southwestward motion is forecast this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Bud is expected to become a remnant low Friday night or Saturday and dissipate by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...BUD CONTINUING TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 the center of Bud was located near 18.8, -118.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260835 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0900 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.9W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.9W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 118.4W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.9N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.7N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.4N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 118.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260534
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bud, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

A low pressure area is expected to form by the middle of next week
several hundred miles south of the coast of Mexico. Some
additional development is possible after that time as the system
moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 02:36:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 03:22:40 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260235 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Deep convection associated with Bud has collapsed this evening. The infrared cloud tops have warmed over the center, which is now partially exposed due to the thinning central overcast. As a result, the latest satellite intensity estimates have decreased. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt, in best agreement with a T-3.0/45 kt Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB. Bud is moving westward at 11 kt, to the south of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. This general motion should continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest at a slightly slower forward speed this weekend as the shallow cyclone becomes steered by the low-level flow. Once again, the NHC forecast has been nudged slightly north of the previous prediction based on the latest track aids. Despite weak vertical wind shear, Bud is expected to weaken over the next couple of days while moving over slightly cooler SSTs and into a drier and more stable environment. All of the dynamical and statistical models show weakening during the next couple of days, and the latest NHC forecast closely follows the latest multi-model consensus aids. The post-tropical transition and dissipation of Bud could occur even sooner than forecast if the system is unable to sustain more organized deep convection going forward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 18.6N 117.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.8N 119.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 18.8N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 18.7N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1200Z 18.1N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 260235 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0300 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 260234 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 ...BUD LOSES ORGANIZATION AND WEAKENS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 117.9W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 117.9 West. Bud is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A slower west-southwestward motion is forecast this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Bud is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...BUD LOSES ORGANIZATION AND WEAKENS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 the center of Bud was located near 18.6, -117.9 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260234 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0300 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 117.9W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 117.9W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 119.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.8N 121.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.7N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.1N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bud, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 20:36:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 21:22:43 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 497 WTPZ42 KNHC 252035 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Satellite imagery indicates that Bud continues to maintain its intensity. The vertical wind shear has clearly weakened over the past day or so, as a pair of recent 1659 and 1753 UTC ASCAT passes indicate that the center is well embedded underneath the central convective area. Based on the ASCAT data and the latest satellite intensity estimates, the intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory. A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Bud will steer the cyclone generally westward at a similar forward speed for the next 24 h. As the cyclone weakens and becomes shallower, it should turn towards the west-southwest and decelerate. The new NHC forecast has again been adjusted a bit to the north and faster to the west, following the trend in the guidance, but the NHC forecast is still to the southeast of the latest consensus models. As Bud traverses sea-surface temperatures of around 27C over the next day or two, the vertical wind shear should remain relatively low. The SHIPS guidance suggests that Bud is moving into a stable airmass, which should cause the cyclone to begin weakening by tonight or on Friday. No significant changes have been made to the previous NHC intensity forecast, which still lies near the intensity consensus, above the weaker dynamical model guidance, and below the stronger statistical guidance. Bud is forecast to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 18.4N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.6N 118.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 18.7N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 18.6N 121.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 18.4N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0600Z 18.1N 124.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 252034 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 ...BUD CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 117.0W ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 117.0 West. Bud is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the west-southwest at a slower forward speed is expected Friday night into Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast to begin tonight or Friday, and Bud is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

...BUD CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 the center of Bud was located near 18.4, -117.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 252034 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 2100 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 252034 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 2100 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.0W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.0W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.6N 118.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 120.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.6N 121.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.4N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.1N 124.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 117.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG