National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 721 WTPZ23 KNHC 011446 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 111.0W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 111.0W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.9N 112.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.2N 114.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.3N 117.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 119.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.6N 121.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 122.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity
to the west of its center. Environmental conditions appear marginal
for some development of this system during the next couple of days
while it moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph. By this weekend,
environmental conditions are forecast to become more unfavorable,
and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next day or two, and thereafter environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Aug 2024 08:38:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Aug 2024 09:22:50 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010837 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 Carlotta has continued to strengthen tonight. A series of earlier SSMIS and GMI passive microwave images show that the storm has become better organized, with deep convection wrapping around the center and a formative mid-level eye becoming apparent in the 89-GHz channel. Unfortunately, no recent scatterometer data is available to better assess the size or intensity of Carlotta. TAFB and SAB provided T-3.0/45 kt subjective Dvorak estimates, while the UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates range from 41-55 kt. The initial intensity of the storm is raised to 50 kt based on a blend of these estimates. A ridge over the southwestern United States is steering Carlotta west-northwestward at about 10 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue today. As the ridge strengthens to the north of the storm, Carlotta is forecast to turn westward on Friday and continue on that heading through the weekend. The track models are in good agreement through the first few days of the forecast period, with increased spread noted thereafter in the deterministic models and global ensembles. The updated NHC track forecast lies slightly to the right of the previous track and is a bit faster in the longer range, following the latest multi-model consensus aid trends. Very warm SSTs and relatively low deep-layer shear appear favorable for significant to possibly rapid intensification of Carlotta during the next couple of days. Given that the microwave data suggest an inner core could be solidifying, Carlotta seems likely to take advantage of these favorable conditions and is expected to become a hurricane later today. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, remaining on the high end of the intensity guidance envelope early in the forecast period and showing continued strengthening through early Saturday. The forecast track brings the storm over gradually cooler waters from 72-120 h, which should induce weakening by early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 17.0N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 17.6N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.9N 113.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.2N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 18.3N 120.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 18.5N 121.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 19.5N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 010836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 19 5(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 34 1 56(57) 37(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) ISLA CLARION 50 X 12(12) 55(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) ISLA CLARION 64 X 3( 3) 34(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 1 5( 6) 25(31) 3(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 41(62) 3(65) X(65) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) 1(22) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 35(45) 12(57) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 7(22) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 010836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 ...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENS... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 109.9W ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 109.9 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west on Friday and a continued westward motion through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta will affect the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENS... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM MST Thu Aug 1 the center of Carlotta was located near 17.0, -109.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 010835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 109.9W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 109.9W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.6N 111.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.9N 113.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.2N 118.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.3N 120.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 121.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 19.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

341
ABPZ20 KNHC 010518
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to
the west of its center. Environmental conditions appear marginal for
some development of this system during the next couple of days while
it moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph. By this weekend,
environmental conditions are forecast to become more unfavorable,
and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next couple of days, and thereafter environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is
likely to form by this weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Aug 2024 02:44:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Aug 2024 03:22:57 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 400 WTPZ43 KNHC 010242 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 Carlotta continues to show signs of organization this evening. Geostationary satellite imagery has shown regular bursts of deep convection with cloud top temperatures below -80 degrees C near the center of the storm. Microwave satellite imagery from AMSR2 also revealed decent structure of the low-level center. Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB agree Carlotta's intensity is 45 kt, and the initial intensity has been increased to match these estimates. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. Carlotta is expected to gradually turn more westward in about a day or so as a ridge builds over the southwestern United States. By Sunday, the storm is expected to turn back to the west-northwest and slow as it reaches a weakness in the ridge. The latest official track forecast has once again shifted slightly north from the previous forecast and has a slightly quicker along-track speed. Signs are pointing towards Carlotta rapidly intensifying over the next day or so. The storm is moving over warm waters, and the environmental shear is expected to remain weak. Statistical model guidance indices show between a 30 to 40 percent chance of rapid intensification (RI) in the next 24 h. This model guidance, paired with the latest structural information provided by satellite imagery, are the basis for now explicitly forecasting RI in the next 24 h. This period of RI could be interrupted in a day or so by an increase in vertical wind shear, though the global models differ in evolution of upper-level winds, making the intensity forecast somewhat uncertain. The latest intensity forecast lies close to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA, and the peak has been increased to 90 kt at 60 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 16.6N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 17.2N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 17.7N 112.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 18.0N 116.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 18.0N 118.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 18.1N 120.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 18.7N 122.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 19.4N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 420 FOPZ13 KNHC 010241 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 14(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 81(84) 8(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 56(56) 12(68) X(68) 1(69) X(69) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 29(29) 9(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 10(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) X(16) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 43(50) 5(55) 1(56) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 17(45) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 395 WTPZ33 KNHC 010241 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 ...CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 108.9W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 108.9 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so followed by a turn to the west by Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Carlotta is now anticipated to become a hurricane by Thursday evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are expected to affect the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula beginning Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... As of 8:00 PM MST Wed Jul 31 the center of Carlotta was located near 16.6, -108.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 010240 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 108.9W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 108.9W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.2N 110.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.7N 112.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 116.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N 118.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.1N 120.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 18.7N 122.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 19.4N 124.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 108.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312335
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with
an area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to the
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions appear marginal for further development of
this system over the next couple of days. This system is forecast to
move slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the western
portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this
system later this week, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Jul 2024 20:48:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Jul 2024 21:22:59 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 31 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 312042 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 2100 UTC WED JUL 31 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 13(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 54(56) 31(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 18(18) 33(51) 1(52) 1(53) X(53) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 17(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) 1(20) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 7(49) 2(51) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 21(39) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 312042 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 The convective structure of the depression has continued to improve this afternoon, with plenty of curved bands on satellite imagery wrapping cyclonically around a well-defined center. After the prior advisory, a late arriving SSMIS pass also showed these cyclonic bands well on the 37-GHz channel. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T3.0/45-kt from TAFB and T2.5/35-kt from SAB. Given the improvement in structure, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt this advisory, upgrading Tropical Depression Three-E to Tropical Storm Carlotta, the third named storm of the slow-starting 2024 East Pacific Hurricane Season. Carlotta has been moving a bit more poleward that previously expected, with the most recent 12-h motion averaging around 305/12-kt. This northwestward motion is soon expected to turn back more westward as it comes under the influence of a large deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The global model guidance continues to advertise a broad weakness in this ridging forming on its western side by days 4-5, and a slowdown with some poleward turn is possible in Carlotta's track by the end of the forecast period. Overall, the guidance this cycle has shifted more northward than before, partially due to the initial position, but the NHC track forecast remains in good agreement with the consensus aids, in between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The improvement in Carlotta's structure also could mean it is more poised to intensify faster than previously expected in the short-term. This possibility is reflected by the latest intensity guidance which is notably higher than before, showing Carlotta taking advantage of the favorable low vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. In fact, the latest SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) index now indicates a 30-40 percent chance of RI over the next 24 hours. While the NHC intensity forecast will not quite show this rate of intensification yet, it is higher than before, and now peaks Carlotta as a 85-kt Category 2 hurricane in 60-72 hours. This intensity forecast is is pretty good agreement with the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) forecast, but is now a shade under the latest HAFS-A/B forecast. Carlotta is still expect to begin moving over cooler waters by days 4-5 which should begin to induce a gradual weakening by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 16.2N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 16.8N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 17.3N 111.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 17.7N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 17.8N 116.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.8N 120.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 18.3N 122.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 19.3N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 312042 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 ...DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 108.0W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 108.0 West. Carlotta is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn back west-northwestward and then westward is anticipated over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecasted over the next few days, and Carlotta is now anticipated to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin