National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251715
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bud, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:33:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 15:22:48 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 251432 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Since the time of the special advisory issued earlier this morning, the organization of Bud on satellite imagery has not changed much. The moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the cyclone appears to have diminished slightly. This has allowed the low-level center to be located underneath the central convective area. The latest subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is 45 kt, while some of the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS objective estimates have also been around 45 kt. Given the 49-kt surface observation from Isla Clarion at 0930 UTC this morning, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory. There have not been any significant changes to the general synoptic steering pattern. A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Bud will steer the cyclone generally westward at a similar forward speed for the next 24 h. As the cyclone weakens and becomes shallower, it should turn towards the west-southwest and decelerate. The guidance has shifted notably north and faster with this cycle. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted about midway between the previous NHC forecast and the latest consensus track aids. As for the intensity forecast, Bud should be traversing sea-surface temperatures of around 26.5-27C over the next day or two, which is slightly cooler than the 28C waters that Bud is over currently. The vertical wind shear should be relatively low over the next couple of days. Bud will be gradually moving into a slightly drier airmass. The latest dynamical and hurricane intensity models weaken Bud more quickly than the statistical intensity guidance, and the NHC forecast splits the difference and is close to the intensity consensus. This new NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and keeps Bud a tropical storm a bit longer. Given that the global models show Bud becoming a remnant low rather quickly despite relatively favorable environmental conditions, the intensity forecast confidence is a bit lower than average during the first 48 h of the forecast. After that time, confidence is higher that the cyclone will be significantly weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 18.3N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.6N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.2N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0000Z 17.9N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 646 FOPZ12 KNHC 251431 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 1500 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 647 WTPZ32 KNHC 251431 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 ...BUD MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 115.7W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 115.7 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a slower west-southwestward motion late Friday through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening should begin tonight or Friday, with faster weakening expected Friday night. Bud is forecast to dissipate Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

...BUD MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 the center of Bud was located near 18.3, -115.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 150 WTPZ22 KNHC 251431 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 1500 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 115.7W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 115.7W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.6N 118.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.2N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.9N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bud, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 11:29:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 11:29:22 GMT

Issued at 430 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 132 WTPZ42 KNHC 251128 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Special Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 430 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Recent surface observations from the Mexican Navy station on Isla Clarion reported sustained winds of 49 kt with a pressure of 1004 mb as Bud passed to the south of the station. Given that ASCAT from a few hours ago showed vectors as high as 44 kt, the observations from the island are consistent. The only change to the NHC forecast is to increase the forecast wind speed through the 24-hour point, due to the higher initial intensity. The observations from Isla Clarion also suggest the gust factor is a little higher than normal, and this is indicated in the Forecast/Advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1130Z 18.0N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Issued at 1130 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 251127 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 1130 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 AT 1130Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Issued at 430 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 251127 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Special Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 430 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 ...BUD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 430 AM PDT...1130 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 115.0W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 430 AM PDT (1130 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 115.0 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, followed by a slower southwestward motion on Friday and Friday night. Recent surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is expected to begin weakening later today or tonight, and the system is forecast to dissipate by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automated station on Isla Clarion recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust of 78 mph (126 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

...BUD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 4:30 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 the center of Bud was located near 18.0, -115.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1130 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 251126 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 1130 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 115.0W AT 25/1130Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 115.0W AT 25/1130Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 08:37:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 09:22:45 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250834 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024 Bud continues to show a sheared cloud pattern this morning, with the low-level center near the eastern edge of the main area of deep convection. Recent ASCAT overpasses showed reliable-looking 35-40 kt winds northwest of the the center just north of the strongest convection, and based on these the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. This intensity is also supported by other recent satellite intensity estimates of 35-40 kt. The initial motion is a little slower than before, 295/10 kt. The cyclone should turn westward over the next 12-24 h as it moves along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. Later, as the system weakens, a southwestward turn is forecast as the shallow vortex becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance has shifted a bit to the north since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is moved northward as well. However, the new track is still to the south of the consensus models. Continued moderate shear and some nearby drier air are likely to prevent additional strengthening even though the cyclone is forecast to stay over relatively warm water. In addition, after 12 h Bud is expected to move into an area of upper-level convergence. This should make it more difficult for the system to keep producing convection, and the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest the convection will dissipate in 24 h or less. Based on this and the intensity guidance, the new intensity forecast calls for Bud to weaken, with the system becoming a depression in 24 h and a remnant low by 36 h. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate completely in 60-72 h in agreement with global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 17.9N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 250834 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 250833 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.3W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.3W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250833 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024 ...BUD A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 114.3W ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 114.3 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, followed by a slower southwestward motion on Friday and Friday night. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is expected to begin weakening later today or tonight, and the system is forecast to dissipate by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automated station on Isla Clarion recently reported a wind gust of 44 mph (71 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...BUD A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 2:00 AM MST Thu Jul 25 the center of Bud was located near 17.9, -114.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.