National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle part of the week. The system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the middle and latter parts of the week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of Central
America and southern Mexico towards the end of the week. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it
moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

938
ABPZ20 KNHC 281721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle part of the week. The system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of the week well to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the middle
and latter parts of the week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico towards the end of the week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while
it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of Guatemala and the southern coast of Mexico
is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the middle part of the week. The system
is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of the week well to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the middle
and latter parts of the week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico towards the end of the week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while
it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jul 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of cloudiness and showers located a few hundred miles
south of Guatemala and southern Mexico is associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form during the early or middle part of next week. The system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week well
to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible during
the middle and latter parts of the week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the latter part of next
week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter
while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272315
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of shower and thunderstorm activity located a few
hundred miles south of Guatemala and southern Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form during the early or middle part of next week. The system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week well
to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible during
the middle and latter parts of the week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the latter part of next
week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter
while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by the middle of next
week a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle
or latter part of next week. This system is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week
well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible during
the middle and latter parts of next week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by the middle of next
week a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle
or latter part of next week. This system is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week
well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible during
the middle and latter parts of next week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270508
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by the middle of next
week a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle
or latter part of next week. This system is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week
well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible during
the middle and latter parts of next week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter
while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 20:38:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 21:22:40 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 262036 TCDEP2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Bud has failed to produce any organized deep convection near its low-level center during the last 18 hours or so. Therefore, it no longer satisfies the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and Bud is being designated as a post-tropical cyclone with this advisory. The intensity estimate is a little uncertain because of the lack of recent scatterometer data, but subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are around 25-32 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory. Bud is being steered along the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and the system should move generally westward for the remainder of today. Over the weekend, the post-tropical low and its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow. Gradual weakening is forecast as the shallow cyclone spins down over cooler waters and in a drier, more stable environment. While some intermittent bursts of convection could occur during the next couple of days, this should not stop the overall weakening trend. This is the last NHC advisory on Bud. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 19.2N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 27/0600Z 19.1N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1800Z 18.9N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0600Z 18.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1800Z 17.8N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 262036 PWSEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

...BUD BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 the center of Bud was located near 19.2, -120.5 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 976 WTPZ22 KNHC 262035 TCMEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 120.5W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 120.5W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 120.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.1N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.9N 123.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.5N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.8N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 120.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY

625
ABPZ20 KNHC 261721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bud, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week
a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
slow development is possible after that time as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 966 WTPZ42 KNHC 261433 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Bud has been devoid of any organized convection since about 03 UTC. The low-level circulation is exposed in latest GOES-18 satellite imagery. If the cyclone is unable to produce convection soon, it is in danger of degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone later today or tonight. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 25-35 kt, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, although that may be generous. Cooler waters and a drier, more stable airmass along Bud's track do not bode well for its future as a tropical cyclone. While some intermittent bursts of convection cannot be ruled out during the next day or so, the overall environment does not appear conducive for Bud to generate persistent organized convection going forward. The updated forecast shows Bud weakening into a post-tropical remnant low in 12 h, but this could occur even sooner if current trends continue. The initial motion is now 270/9 kt. Bud is being steered along the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and the system should move generally westward today. As we move into the weekend, Bud or its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track is fairly similar to the previous one, nudged slightly southward towards the HCCA and other consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 19.2N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1200Z 19.0N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0000Z 18.6N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1200Z 18.2N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 814 WTPZ22 KNHC 261433 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 1500 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.6W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.6W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.2W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.0N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

...BUD STRUGGLING THIS MORNING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 the center of Bud was located near 19.1, -119.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 14:34:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 15:22:42 GMT

178
ABPZ20 KNHC 261116
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bud, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week
a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
slow development is possible after that time as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly