National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 312042 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 ...DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 108.0W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 108.0 West. Carlotta is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn back west-northwestward and then westward is anticipated over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecasted over the next few days, and Carlotta is now anticipated to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Jul 31 the center of Carlotta was located near 16.2, -108.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 31 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 312041 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 2100 UTC WED JUL 31 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 108.0W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 108.0W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.8N 109.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.3N 111.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.7N 113.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.8N 116.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.8N 120.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.3N 122.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.3N 124.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 108.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Three-E, located a few hundred miles southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association
with an area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Conditions appear to be only marginally favorable for some
gradual development of this system over the next couple of
days. This system is forecast to move slowly westward at 5 to 10
mph, remaining over the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this
system later this week where environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Three-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Three-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Jul 2024 14:46:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Jul 2024 15:22:45 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 311445 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 Over the last few hours, the convective organization has improved with the area of low pressure we have been monitoring a few hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico. First-light visible imagery from a GOES-West meso-sector over the storm show the development of organized curve banding, with low-level cloud motions also now suggesting the presence of closed cyclonic flow. This improved convective structure was also seen in an earlier 1040 UTC SSMIS microwave pass. In addition, the latest set of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were both at T2.5/35 kt from both SAB and TAFB. All these data suggest that the system has become a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated at this time. The initial intensity for this advisory is set at 30 kt, a little under the Dvorak estimates given the lower objective estimates and earlier scatterometer data. The initial estimated motion is off to the west-northwest at 295/12-kt. This motion is expected to continue with a gentle turn more westward over the next few days as the system becomes primarily steered by a deep-layer ridge located over the southwestern United States. Towards the end of the forecast period, there could be a bit more of a weakness in this ridge on its western extent, potentially allowing the system to turn more poleward again. The initial track forecast in general sticks close to the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA, which favor a track that is in between the operational GFS and ECMWF tracks, but slightly in favor of the latter. Intensity-wise, TD3-E might be our first system in the East Pacific to last longer than a couple of days, with most of the guidance suggesting intensification into the weekend. SHIPS guidance from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest the shear will remain low (less than 15 kt) while sea-surface temperatures underneath the cyclone remain in the 29-30 C range over the next few days. Such a favorable environment could favor significant intensification once an inner-core becomes established. Interestingly, the regional-hurricane model guidance, while showing intensification, do not currently forecast rapid intensification. The first NHC intensity forecast shows more gradual intensification for the next day or so, followed by a somewhat faster rate, peaking the system as a Category 1 hurricane in 72 h, on the high end of the intensity guidance. Towards the end of the forecast, the tropical cyclone should begin to move over cooler ocean waters, with gradual weakening expected to begin around day 4 or 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 15.1N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 15.7N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 16.3N 110.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 16.7N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 17.0N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 17.1N 119.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 18.0N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 18.5N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 31 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 311442 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC WED JUL 31 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 3 9(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 35(42) 7(49) X(49) X(49) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 6(24) X(24) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 16(32) 3(35) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 311442 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COASTLINE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 107.2W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 107.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a turn more westward over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecasted and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane by this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COASTLINE... As of 8:00 AM MST Wed Jul 31 the center of Three-E was located near 15.1, -107.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 31 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 311441 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC WED JUL 31 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.7N 108.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.3N 110.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.7N 112.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.0N 117.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.1N 119.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 18.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 107.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311140
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming more
organized near an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. If these current trends
continue, this system is expected to become a tropical depression as
soon as later this morning. The system is forecast to move westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association
with an area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Some gradual development of this system remains possible, and a
tropical depression could form by this weekend. This system is
forecast to move slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this
weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310534
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental
conditions are conducive further development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form on Wednesday. The system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located more than one thousand miles to the southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has not become
any better organized during the past several hours. Additional
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of this week. This system is forecast to
move slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the western
portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the coast
of Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302345
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next day or
so. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph during the next several days, remaining offshore of the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure has developed well to the southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and shower and
thunderstorm activity associated with the system continues to show
some signs of organization. Additional development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form by the end of this
week. This system is forecast to move slowly westward at 5 to 10
mph, remaining over the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization
with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico. However, recently received satellite
wind data suggests the system does not yet possess a well-defined
center. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form over the next day or two. The system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
several days, remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure has developed well to the southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and recent shower and
thunderstorm activity associated with the system is showing some
signs of organization. Some additional development of this system is
possible and a tropical depression could form by the end of this
week. This system is forecast to move slowly westward at 5 to 10
mph, remaining over the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301146
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased this morning with an
area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. However, overnight satellite wind data
indicated the system did not yet possess a well-defined center.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of
this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the middle and latter parts of the week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across
the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form towards the
end of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
several days, remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

748
ABPZ20 KNHC 300509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico continues
to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is very likely to form within the next couple of days.
The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph during the next several days, remaining offshore of the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
possible during the middle and latter parts of the week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form towards the end of the
week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292340
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to become better organized
based on satellite imagery. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The
system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph during the next several days, remaining offshore of the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
possible during the middle and latter parts of the week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form towards the end of the week or
this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291717
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms. Recent scatterometer wind data depict that the
circulation has become a little better defined today. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few
days. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days, remaining offshore of
the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
possible during the middle and latter parts of the week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form towards the end of the week or
this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

281
ABPZ20 KNHC 291124
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle part of the week. The system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
possible during the middle and latter parts of the week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form towards the end of the week or
this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jul 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle part of the week. The system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the middle and latter parts of the
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph
across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of Central
America and southern Mexico towards the end of the week. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it
moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake