National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...JOHN QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 14.5, -98.5 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 11:54:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 09:22:45 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231154 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...JOHN QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 98.5W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from east of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 h. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 98.5 West. John is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or two and move inland on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico, and the chances of it becoming a hurricane before landfall are increasing. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area early Tuesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area on Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to begin to affect the coast of southern Mexico later today, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...JOHN QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 14.5, -98.5 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231143
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm John, located just south of southern Mexico.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of southwestern Mexico is producing limited shower
and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions only appear
marginally favorable for gradual development of this system while
it moves slowly eastward to the south of the coast of Mexico
through the middle of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 08:57:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 09:22:45 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230853 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 Satellite images indicate that John continues to become better organized, with very deep convection near the center and some tight curved band features. Earlier microwave imagery also showed some inner core development, with perhaps a partial eyewall trying to form. Subjective Dvorak estimates at 06z were 35 kt from both TAFB/SAB, though the objective values were between 40-50 kt. The intensity is set to 40 kt as a blend of these data. The storm is moving slowly to the north-northeast, caught in the large-scale southwesterly flow associated with the monsoon trough near Central America. There has been a big change in most of the track guidance since yesterday, with a fair number of the models now showing a steadier northeastward motion with less eastward steering from the incipient tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Consequently, the models have shifted leftward and faster. The official forecast is also trended in that direction, but could still be too far to the east. John is forecast to be over very warm waters with light shear while it approaches the coast of Mexico over the next day or so. While none of the regional hurricane models make John a hurricane before landfall, the rapid intensification indices are indicating at least a 50 percent chance that this system strengthens 30 kt in the next 24 hours, which would indicate hurricane-strength. Given the uncertainties involved, a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of southern Mexico on this advisory, and interests there should closely monitor for future forecast updates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow-moving Tropical Storm John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. 2. John is forecast to strengthen before landfall, and a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin late today. 3. John could strengthen more than forecast depending on how long it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as Hurricane Warnings could be required for a portion of the coastline later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.4N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.8N 98.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.4N 97.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.8N 97.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 16.0N 97.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230852 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P MALDONADO 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) P ANGEL 34 X 15(15) 20(35) 9(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) P ANGEL 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P ANGEL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HUATULCO 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 230852 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...JOHN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 98.5W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 98.5 West. John is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or two and move inland on Tuesday or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen over the next day or two, and could become a hurricane before landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible early Tuesday within the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are expected to start within portions of the warning area late today or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area beginning on Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to begin to affect the coast of southern Mexico later today, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...JOHN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 14.4, -98.5 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 508 WTPZ25 KNHC 230851 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 98.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 98.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 98.5W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.8N 98.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.4N 97.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.8N 97.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.0N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 98.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 05:40:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 03:24:07 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 933 WTPZ35 KNHC 230539 CCA TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 2A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 Corrected to add size of tropical storm force winds ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JOHN... ...LIKELY TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 98.5W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 98.5 West. The system has been recently drifting northward, but a slow north-northeastward motion is expected to begin later today. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is then anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move near the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days until landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km/h) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John (formerly Tropical Depression Ten-E), please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area beginning on Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to begin to affect the coast of southern Mexico later today, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JOHN... ...LIKELY TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 12:00 AM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 14.1, -98.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230535
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm John, located just south of southern
Mexico.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorm activity has diminished somewhat with a
trough of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions only appear
marginally favorable for slow development of this system as it
moves slowly eastward to the south of the coast of Mexico through
the middle of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 05:33:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 03:24:07 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 02:42:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 03:24:07 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230233 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 Satellite images show that the depression is gradually becoming better organized, with some convective banding features developing around the circulation and a small area of very cold cloud tops over the estimated center. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the southern semicircle of the system. Subjective Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB indicate a T-number of 2.0, so the advisory intensity is held at 30 kt for now. Center fixes indicate little movement since earlier today, so the initial motion estimate is nearly stationary. As noted earlier, the track forecast for this tropical cyclone is quite problematic, with a large spread in the guidance models. The regional hurricane models are generally east of the global guidance, with the ECMWF on the western side of the model tracks. The most recent run of the GFS takes the cyclone inland in a couple of days but later develops one or two new centers offshore. Since the dominant steering mechanism seems to be the Central American Gyre, the official track forecast shows a mainly east-northeastward motion during the forecast period, along the southern periphery of the Gyre. This track moves the center close to the southern coast of Mexico for several days before making landfall, and lies between the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. During most of the forecast period, the system should remain over very warm waters with low vertical wind shear and in a moist low- to mid-level air mass. Therefore strengthening is likely, and the official intensity forecast is similar to the statistical-dynamical LGEM guidance. One major source of uncertainty in the forecast is how much the system interacts with land during the next few days. Given the favorable environment, it is possible that the system could become a hurricane before landfall. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should closely monitor the latest forecast updates for this system. A Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of the coast now covered by a Tropical Storm Watch. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow-moving Tropical Depression Ten-E will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Monday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for a portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday. 3. The system could strengthen more than forecast depending on how long it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as a Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of the coastline later tonight or on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.9N 98.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.3N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 15.2N 96.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 15.6N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.3N 94.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230233 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 100W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P ANGEL 34 X 6( 6) 18(24) 12(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) 21(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SALINA CRUZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Sun Sep 22 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.9, -98.6 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.