National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 250234 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0300 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250234 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 ...BUD MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 113.3W ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 113.3 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Thursday, followed by a slower southwestward motion on Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday, with weakening expected to begin by Thursday night. Bud is forecast to dissipate by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...BUD MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 8:00 PM MST Wed Jul 24 the center of Bud was located near 17.5, -113.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242317
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Bud, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located more than one thousand miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is associated with
some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of
this system appears unlikely over the next several days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2024 20:34:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2024 21:22:51 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 242032 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 242032 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 ...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 112.2W ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 112.2 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn to the west is expected tonight or early Thursday. A slower motion toward the southwest is expected by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday, with steady weakening expected to begin by Thursday night. Bud is forecast to dissipate by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Jul 24 the center of Bud was located near 17.1, -112.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241907
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1210 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the low pressure
system offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico (EP93).

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Updated: Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low
pressure system located several hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing winds to tropical storm force
south and east of its center. The associated showers and
thunderstorms have also increased in organization during the day,
and if this activity continues, then advisories would likely be
initiated on a tropical storm later this afternoon. The low is
forecast to move westward around 15 mph, away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located more than one thousand miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula remains disorganized. Development
of this system appears unlikely over the next several days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241748
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located several hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
have become better organized today. This system could become a
short-lived tropical depression during the next day or two before
it reaches an environment that is less favorable for development.
The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
around 15 mph, remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located more than one thousand miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula remains disorganized. Development
of this system appears unlikely over the next several days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241129
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, have changed little in organization since yesterday.
Environmental conditions could allow for some slow development over
the next couple of days while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula has diminished some since yesterday.
Development of this system appears unlikely over the next few days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across
the central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

882
ABPZ20 KNHC 240502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
have changed little in organization since earlier today.
Environmental conditions could allow for some slow development over
the next couple of days while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight
development of this system over the next few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
have changed little in organization during the day. Environmental
conditions could be conducive for some slow development over the
next couple of days while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight
development of this system over the next few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico have changed little in organization during the past several
hours. Environmental conditions appear favorable for slow
development over the next couple of days while the disturbance moves
generally west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight
development of this system over the next few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

509
ABPZ20 KNHC 231135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
have become slightly better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for slow development over the next
couple of days while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight
development of this system over the next few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Offshore Southwestern Mexico:
An area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico is associated with a tropical wave.
Some development of this system is possible while it moves
generally west-northwestward over the next couple of days, remaining
offshore of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Offshore Southwestern Mexico:
An area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico is associated with a tropical
wave. This system has become a little better organized today, and
some further development is possible while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the next couple of days, remaining offshore
of southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

198
ABPZ20 KNHC 221719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Offshore Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions could support slight development
over the next couple of days as the system moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward, remaining offshore of
southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown

740
ABPZ20 KNHC 221143
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Offshore Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico are associated with a surface
trough. Environmental conditions could support slight development
over the next couple of days as the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the far western portion of the eastern Pacific is associated with a
trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
marginally conducive for some slow development during the next day
or so. The disturbance is forecast to move westward at 10 to 15 mph
and into the central Pacific basin by early Monday morning. By
midweek, strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located hundreds of miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly