Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map
1 year ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060526
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Aletta, which has become a remnant low located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Forecast Discussion Number 7

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map
1 year ago
Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060232 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 800 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 Convection has continued to diminish in association with Aletta. Little or no organized deep convection has been seen since late Thursday morning. Both the GFS and the ECMWF simulated satellite imagery do not indicate any return of deep convection. Given the marginal environment, the remnant low should continue to spin down. Aletta is forecast to dissipate on Saturday. Do to the very poor appearance on satellite imagery and the lack of any pressure gradients in the area, the initial intensity has been lowered to 20 kt. Socorro Island measured a maximum wind of 21 kt a few hours ago as Aletta passed just south of the island. Earlier ASCAT-B data from 1712 UTC only showed peak winds in the 20-25 kt range at that time. No significant change has been made to the NHC track forecast. Aletta should continue to be steered by the low-level flow in a direction just south of due west until it dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 18.4N 111.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 18.3N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map
1 year ago
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 060232 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Forecast Advisory Number 7

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map
1 year ago
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 060232 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.6W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.6W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 111.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.3N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 111.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
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