National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 050835 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.7W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.7W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.7N 109.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.3N 111.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 108.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Aletta Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 ...ALETTA NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 108.7W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Aletta was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 108.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Aletta should become a remnant low tonight and dissipate by this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...ALETTA NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 AM MST Fri Jul 5 the center of Aletta was located near 18.7, -108.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050511
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Aletta, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Aletta are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Aletta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 02:34:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 03:29:01 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050233 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 800 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 After maintaining a relatively well-organized structure on satellite imagery for most of the day Thursday, Aletta appears a bit less impressive over the past few hours. The latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 30-36 kt, while the subjective numbers from TAFB and SAB range from 30-35 kt. At this time, there is no reason to change the initial intensity estimate of 35 kt, especially given that we should receive some ASCAT data within the next couple of hours. Although Aletta is currently located within an environment of low vertical wind shear, the cyclone is forecast to reach cooler waters and move into a drier airmass over the next 12 h or so. While it is possible that Aletta could maintain its intensity for another 6 to 12 h, weakening is expected to commence by Friday morning, if not sooner. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models show Aletta losing its convection by late Friday, and the new NHC forecast calls for Aletta to become a remnant low in 24 h. Aletta has been moving a bit more quickly to the northwest or 305 degrees at 12 kt. A turn to the west is expected tonight. As Aletta loses its convection, it will be steered westward to west-southwestward by the low-level flow before it dissipates on Saturday. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a bit farther north and faster to the west, based mainly on the faster motion observed over the past 6 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 18.5N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 18.6N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 18.4N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z 18.0N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 13(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Aletta Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 800 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 ...ALETTA FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 108.0W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 108.0 West. Aletta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day or two. Aletta is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night and dissipate by this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

...ALETTA FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM MST Thu Jul 4 the center of Aletta was located near 18.5, -108.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 050230 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.0W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.0W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.6N 109.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.4N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.0N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 108.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042303
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Aletta, located a couple of hundred miles
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Aletta are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Aletta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2024 20:32:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2024 21:28:58 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042031 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone this afternoon consists of a small area of deep convection over the center, with a curved band over the western portion of the circulation. Various satellite estimates today indicate the compact system could be stronger than previously estimated. Recent UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates (including ADT, AiDT, DPRINT, and SATCON) range from 31-35 kt. SAB and TAFB provided T2.0 final-T numbers, although SAB did report a T2.5 data-T number. Also, there was an earlier RCM-1 SAR overpass that showed tropical-storm-force winds within the compact circulation. Given the small size of the system, these higher estimates appear believable, and so the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory. Thus, the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Aletta. Aletta is moving northwestward (315 degrees) at around 9 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday as the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. Aletta is likely at or near its peak intensity. The bulk of the intensity guidance shows weakening over the next day or two while the storm moves into a drier environment over cooler SSTs. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF show convection could collapse overnight or early Friday, and the low is forecast to spin down and dissipate later this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.9N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.3N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.2N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 17.3N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 042031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Aletta Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ALETTA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 107.0W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 107.0 West. Aletta is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or two. Aletta is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night and dissipate this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ALETTA... As of 2:00 PM MST Thu Jul 4 the center of Aletta was located near 17.9, -107.0 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 042031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 042030 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.0W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.0W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.3N 108.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.2N 109.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.8N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.3N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 107.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression One-E, located a couple of hundred miles
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression One-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression One-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2024 14:50:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2024 15:29:12 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Jul 04 2024 312 WTPZ41 KNHC 041449 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 900 AM CST Thu Jul 04 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized over the past 12-18 hours in association with the small area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring for the past several days. There have been no recent scatterometer or passive microwave passes to assess the low-level circulation of the system. However, the persistence of the convection and the current satellite structure suggest a well-defined surface circulation has likely formed underneath the colder cloud tops. It is determined that the first tropical depression of the eastern Pacific season has formed. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB. The center position of the depression is uncertain based on the lack of data, but the initial estimated motion is northwest (325/8 kt). The models agree that this motion will continue into tonight, followed by a westward turn on Friday within the low-level flow. With warm SSTs and relatively low shear today, it is possible that the system could briefly strengthen into a tropical storm, though not explicitly forecast. The tropical cyclone will move across the 26C isotherm during the next 24-36 h, and the cooler waters and drier mid-level environment thereafter should induce a weakening trend. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery suggest convection is likely to collapse on Friday, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night and dissipate later this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.0N 105.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.7N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 17.8N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 17.5N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 17.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart