National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 896 FOPZ11 KNHC 041448 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Jul 04 2024 201 WTPZ31 KNHC 041448 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 900 AM CST Thu Jul 04 2024 ...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS... ...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 105.9W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 105.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is forecast on Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, followed by gradual weakening tonight and Friday. The system is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS... ...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED SYSTEM... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Jul 4 the center of One-E was located near 17.0, -105.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 041448 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.9W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.9W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.8N 108.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.5N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.0N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

987
ABPZ20 KNHC 041351
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special outlook issued to raise probabilities and update discussion
of the disturbance offshore of southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
Early visible satellite images indicate that shower and thunderstorm
activity continues to become better organized in association with an
area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico. Additionally, the circulation of
the system appears to have become better defined since yesterday. If
these development trends continue, advisories will likely be
initiated on this system as a tropical depression this morning. The
system is forecast to move northwestward through tonight and then
turn westward on Friday, remaining offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high....80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a small
area of showers and thunderstorms. Although this activity has become
better organized since yesterday, it remains unclear whether the
system possesses a well-defined center. Environmental conditions
could still support the formation of a short-lived tropical
depression later today or tonight while the system moves
northwestward offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. By
Friday, the system is forecast to move over cooler waters and
further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium....60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040551
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms is associated with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. While this activity continues to show
signs of organization, it is unclear if a well-defined center has
formed with the system. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some additional development later today, and a short-lived
tropical depression could form during over the next day or so. By
Friday, the system is forecast to move over cooler waters and
development after that time is not expected. The disturbance is
forecast to move northward today and then turn northwestward by
Friday, remaining offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium....60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032306
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of
Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some further development of this
system during the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical
depression could form during that time. On Friday, the system is
forecast to move over cooler waters and development after that time
is not expected. The disturbance is forecast to move northward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium....60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of
Mexico have become a little better organized this morning.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some further
development of this system during the next day or so, and a
short-lived tropical depression could form during that time. On
Friday, the system is forecast to move over cooler waters and
development after that time is not expected. The disturbance is
forecast to move northward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium....60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031128
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP91):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a broad
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are conducive for
further development of this system, and a short-lived tropical
depression could form within the next day or so while it moves
northward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system is forecast to move
over cooler waters on Friday, and thereafter further development is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium....50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030549
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico is associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form within a day or two while it moves northward
to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. However, this system should move
over cooler waters on Friday, preventing further development
thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium....50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022304
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico is associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions could
support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the next couple of days while it moves
northward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium....50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico is associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions could
support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the next couple of days while it moves
northward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium....40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021153
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Satellite data indicate a broad area of low pressure is forming a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. The system
is producing a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions could support some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next few days while it moves northward to northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low....30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020541
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves west-northwestward between 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low....20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012304
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or two a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves west-northwestward between 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low... 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011717
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or two a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form mid- to late-week while it moves
west-northwestward between 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low... 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or two a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form mid- to late-week while it moves
west-northwestward between 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010527
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early this week a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form mid- to late-week while it moves
west-northwestward between 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early this week a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form around midweek while it moves
west-northwestward between 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin