National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the far western portion of the eastern Pacific is associated with a
trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be marginally conducive for some slow development during the
next day or so. The disturbance is forecast to move westward at
10 to 15 mph and into the central Pacific basin tonight, and by
midweek, strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low... 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

056
ABPZ20 KNHC 211725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the far western portion of the eastern Pacific is associated with a
trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be marginally conducive for some slow development during the
next day or so. The disturbance is forecast to move westward at
10 to 15 mph and into the central Pacific basin tonight or early
Monday. By midweek, strong upper-level winds are expected to
inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing limited shower
and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become a
little more conducive for some gradual development of this system
over the next several days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western
portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the far western portion of the eastern Pacific is associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be marginally conducive for some gradual development during the
next couple of days while the system moves westward at 10 to
15 mph toward the central Pacific basin. By midweek, stronger
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system over the next
several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph across the central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210513
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jul 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the south of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula is producing a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system over the next several days while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located well to the
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has
become a little more concentrated since yesterday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western
portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the south of the southwestern coast
of Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system over the next several days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across
the central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201129
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the south of the southwestern coast
of Mexico is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located along a monsoon trough well to the south of
the coast of Mexico is producing a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
over the next several days as it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, moving into the western portion
of the basin by the middle to latter parts of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192335
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located along a monsoon trough well to the south of
the coast of Mexico is producing a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
over the next several days as it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, moving into the western portion
of the basin by the middle to latter parts of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by early next week a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Development, if any, of
this system would be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph during the middle and latter parts of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by early next week a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Thereafter, some slow
development of this system is possible through the latter part of
next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by early next week a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Thereafter,
some slow development of this system is possible through the middle
of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP92):
Shower activity has diminished with a broad area of low pressure
located more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. The system is now fully
embedded in unfavorable environmental conditions, and development
is no longer expected as the low moves generally westward across
the western part of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by early next week a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Thereafter,
some slow development of this system is possible through the middle
of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms well removed
from its center. Environmental conditions have become less
conducive, with stronger upper-level winds and cooler waters, and
further development of this system is unlikely. The low is forecast
to move generally westward at about 10 mph across the
western part of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by late this weekend a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Thereafter,
some slow development of this system is possible through the middle
of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms well removed
from its center. Environmental conditions are becoming less
conducive, with stronger upper-level winds and cooler waters, and
further development of this system is unlikely. The low is forecast
to move generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
western part of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Thereafter, some slow
development of this system is possible by the middle of next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180506
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms well
removed from its center. Environmental conditions near the system
are becoming less conducive, with stronger upper-level winds and
cooler waters, and its window for further development is closing.
The low is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at about
10 mph across the western part of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Thereafter, some slow
development of this system is possible by the middle of next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing poorly-organized showers and thunderstorms. While a
short-lived tropical depression could still form during the next
day or so, the window for further development is closing with the
system expected to encounter stronger upper-level winds and cooler
waters by late Thursday. The low is forecast to move
west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the western part of the
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some slow development
of this system is possible early next week while it moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162308 CCA
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Corrected for 5 to 7 days in second system.

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP92):
A broad, elongated area of low pressure located several hundred
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. While a tropical depression could still form during
the next day or two, the window for further development is
shortening with stronger upper-level winds and cooler waters
anticipated on Thursday. The system is forecast to move west-
northwestward at 10-15 mph across the western part of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
slow development of this system is possible early next week while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152302
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP92):
Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure has
formed within a larger area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity centered several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression could form around midweek while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the western part of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave currently producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms is anticipated to merge with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula within the next day or so. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development after that occurs, and
a tropical depression could form mid- to late-week as the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly