National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 032039 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 032039 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...DANIEL DRIFTING FOR NOW BUT EXPECTED TO START MOVING NORTHEASTWARD SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 130.4W ABOUT 1530 MI...2465 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 130.4 West. Daniel is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A motion toward the northeast is expected to begin over the next several days with a gradual increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two with some gradual weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DANIEL DRIFTING FOR NOW BUT EXPECTED TO START MOVING NORTHEASTWARD SOON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Daniel was located near 12.3, -130.4 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 032038 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.4W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.4W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.4W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 12.8N 130.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 129.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.0N 125.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.3N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031748
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and on newly formed
Tropical Storm Daniel, located more than one thousand miles to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of southern Mexico continues to be associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and on newly formed
Tropical Storm Daniel, located more than one thousand miles to the
west-southwest of the Southern Tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of southern Mexico continues to be associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 967 WTPZ44 KNHC 031448 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Over the last several days, we have been monitoring the area of low pressure located in the western part of the east Pacific basin, currently near 130W. The deep convection with the system has been pulsing during this time, and has been showing evidence of organization. In fact, TAFB has been providing Dvorak intensity estimates of CI-2.0/30 kt over the past day, and SAB more recently provided a Data-T of 2.0/30 kt at 12 UTC. Overnight, scatterometer wind data showed a well-defined circulation and peak winds of 35-40 kt west of the center. Some of these winds may have been rain- inflated, but the coverage was broad enough that it is likely that tropical storm force winds exist with the circulation. The combination of these data suggest that the low has become a Tropical Storm, and advisories are being initiated on Daniel with an intensity of 35 kt. The tropical storm has been meandering, but the current motion is estimated to be slowly off to the northwest at 315/4 kt. Over the next day or two, Daniel is expected to be embedded in southwesterly monsoonal flow that is shifting northward ahead of Hurricane Carlotta. This flow is expected to result in Daniel soon turning northward and then northeastward as it remains embedded in this flow. After 48 h, The storm may pivot back toward the north and north-northwest as it becomes captures by Carlotta's larger outer circulation. The track guidance does have a significant amount of spread beyond 48 h related to how much Carlotta captures the smaller Daniel, with the initial track forecast electing to go in between the HCCA and TCVE consensus aids, which also roughly splits the difference between the GFS and ECMWF tracks. The environment Daniel has been and will be embedded in is not very favorable for much additional intensification, with moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level relative humidity. Only a modest amount of strengthening is shown in the short-term, and ultimately Daniel is likely to get caught up in Carlotta's circulation, finally being absorbed by the larger cyclone after day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the guidance, close to SHIPS and HCCA intensity aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 12.6N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 12.8N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 13.3N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 14.4N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 15.9N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 19.3N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 14:46:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 15:34:42 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 120 WTPZ34 KNHC 031445 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN EAST PACIFIC BASIN... ...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 130.0W ABOUT 1500 MI...2410 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 130.0 West. Daniel is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is anticipated over the next several days with a gradual increase in forward speed. Satellite-wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two with some gradual weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN EAST PACIFIC BASIN... ...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED STORM... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Daniel was located near 12.6, -130.0 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 031445 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 738 WTPZ24 KNHC 031444 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 130.0W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 130.0W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 129.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.8N 130.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.3N 130.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.4N 128.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.9N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.3N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 130.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 14:43:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 15:28:56 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 831 WTPZ43 KNHC 031443 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 This morning Carlotta might be near or just past its peak intensity. The smaller inner-core we had been observing over the last day or so has become a bit broader, with an AMSR-2 microwave pass at 0943 UTC showing that an eyewall replacement cycle has been underway. Intensity estimates this morning are about the same as they were last night, and given the structural evolution seen on satellite, the initial intensity is being held at 80 kt. Carlotta continues to move westward to west-northwestward at 285/12-kt. A gradual slow down in the hurricane's forward motion is expected over the next few days as it reaches the westward extent of a deep-layer ridge. After that time, Carlotta is expected to become more vertically shallow, which should ultimately cause the cyclone to turn back westward towards the end of the forecast period. Only minor adjustments were made in the forecast track this cycle, and the latest NHC forecast remains in good agreement with the consensus aids which are tightly clustered with the overall model guidance. With the aforementioned eyewall replacement cycle ongoing, Carlotta has likely run out of time to intensify much more in the short-term, especially since the hurricane will be crossing the 26 C isotherm in 12 hours. Thus, no more intensification is shown in the latest NHC forecast, with gradual weakening expected to begin on Sunday. This weakening will likely be hastened by an abrupt increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear after 24 h as indicated by the SHIPS guidance, and Carlotta is likely to become a remnant low before the end of the forecast period as its remaining organized convection dissipates as seen in simulated IR from the GFS/ECMWF. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 19.0N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 19.2N 121.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.7N 123.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 20.4N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.9N 127.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 21.2N 128.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 21.4N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 21.5N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z 21.5N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 031442 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 80 X(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) 20N 125W 34 1 24(25) 55(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 20N 125W 50 X 3( 3) 39(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 20N 125W 64 X 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 031442 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...CARLOTTA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 120.0W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 120.0 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change is strength is expected today, but weakening should begin by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are gradually subsiding, and should diminish by Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...CARLOTTA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Carlotta was located near 19.0, -120.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 751 WTPZ23 KNHC 031441 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.0W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.0W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 119.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.2N 121.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.7N 123.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 125.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.9N 127.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 128.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.4N 130.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 120.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Earlier satellite-derived wind data showed a well-defined area of
low pressure located located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula that was producing
winds of up to 35-40 mph just west of the center. In addition,
shower and thunderstorm activity has developed a little closer to
the center this morning. If these convective trends continue, this
system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm
before environmental conditions become unfavorable for development
in a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a broad
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 08:57:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 09:29:11 GMT