National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 659 FOPZ14 KNHC 040239 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 17(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 661 WTPZ24 KNHC 040239 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.5W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.5W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.6W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.1N 130.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 129.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.6N 127.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.1N 126.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.5N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.6N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 130.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 660 WTPZ34 KNHC 040239 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...DANIEL LOITERING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 130.5W ABOUT 1540 MI...2475 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 130.5 West. Daniel has moved little during the past several hours, but a northward motion near 2 mph (4 km/h) is expected to begin overnight. A faster northeastward motion is forecast on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so with some gradual weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 02:41:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 03:35:09 GMT

...DANIEL LOITERING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Daniel was located near 12.3, -130.5 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 02:39:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 03:29:19 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 526 WTPZ43 KNHC 040237 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 The structure of Carlotta on conventional geostationary satellite imagery has been gradually becoming less impressive. Although the latest subjective CI numbers are still around 77 kt, the latest CIMSS objective intensity estimates have fallen to the 65-72 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set to 70 kt. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest, or 285/9 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north of Carlotta will keep the cyclone moving on a west-northwestward course at a similar forward speed during the next couple of days. After that time, Carlotta is expected to become more vertically shallow, which should ultimately cause the cyclone to turn westward within the low-level steering flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous forecast, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Carlotta has crossed the 26C SST isotherm this evening and is forecast to reach SSTs colder than 24C within the next 24 h. The cyclone is currently in a low-shear environment, but southwesterly shear is forecast to become much stronger in about 24 h. Carlotta will also be reaching a more stable environment by Sunday morning. The combination of these factors will cause continued weakening. Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday morning, as both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the cyclone losing its convection by that time. The remnant low should then dissipate later in the week. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids and is nearly identical to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.4N 121.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.4N 125.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 21.3N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 21.7N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z 21.6N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040237 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 12 75(87) 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 20N 125W 50 1 43(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 20N 125W 64 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040237 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.9W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.9W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 121.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 125.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.3N 128.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.7N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.6N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 121.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040237 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...CARLOTTA STARTING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 121.9W ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 121.9 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Monday, with a gradual turn towards the west by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected tonight, with a more steady rate of weakening forecast on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are gradually subsiding, and should diminish by Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

...CARLOTTA STARTING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Carlotta was located near 19.4, -121.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032322
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and on Tropical Storm
Daniel, located more than one thousand miles to the west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of southern Mexico continues to be associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well South of the Baja California Peninsula:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with another broad area of low pressure that has
formed. Some development is possible during the next day or two
before the system interacts with the disturbance (EP96) to its
southeast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 20:44:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 21:29:07 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 228 WTPZ43 KNHC 032042 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Carlotta appears to have peaked in intensity earlier today, as the core convection on the west side has eroded a bit this afternoon, leading to a slightly less symmetric structure. A pair of recent ASCAT passes indicate that the low-level wind structure is fairly symmetric, with winds over 50 kt in all quadrants. The latest subjective CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are T-4.5/77 kt and the objective CIMSS intensity estimates range from 64 to 87 kt. The initial intensity has been nudged down to 75 kt based on a blend of the data and the slightly degraded structure noted on satellite imagery. Carlotta has been moving more westward and a bit slower, about 275/9-kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north of Carlotta will keep the cyclone moving on a westward to west-northwestward course at a slightly slower forward speed during the next few days. After that time, Carlotta is expected to become more vertically shallow, which should ultimately cause the cyclone to turn back westward towards the end of the forecast period. Very little change has been made to the previous NHC forecast. Carlotta will be crossing the 26C SST isotherm by this evening. Beyond 24 hours, the wind shear is forecast to increase as the cyclone moves into a more stable environment. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, with more steady weakening after that time. Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday, as both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imageries show the cyclone losing its convection by that time. The remnant low should then dissipate later in the week. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.0N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.4N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.6N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 21.4N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 21.7N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 032042 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 125W 34 3 69(72) 13(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 20N 125W 50 X 20(20) 23(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 20N 125W 64 X 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 032042 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...CARLOTTA MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 120.9W ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 120.9 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through tonight, with a more steady rate of weakening forecast by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are gradually subsiding, and should diminish by Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Papin

...CARLOTTA MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Carlotta was located near 19.0, -120.9 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 032041 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.9W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 75SE 75SW 110NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.9W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 120.4W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.4N 122.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.6N 126.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 127.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.4N 129.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.7N 130.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 120.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 032041 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Since this morning, Daniel continues to be a sheared tropical cyclone, with the deepest central convection remaining displaced to the west of the low-level center, which is now mostly exposed. This structure was also captured in a GMI microwave pass at 1712 UTC which showed the low-level center on the 37 GHz channel with the deeper convection displaced to the southwest. Subjective Dvorak Data T-numbers are both 2.0/30 kt from SAB and TAFB, but given the earlier scatterometer data, the intensity will remain 35 kt this advisory. Daniel has been moving very slowly today and may have reformed a bit westward from last night, with the current motion estimated as a northward drift at 360/2 kt. As previously discussed, the primary steering mechanism the next several days is large-scale monsoonal southwesterly flow that the cyclone is expected to remain embedded in. This flow should begin to cause Daniel to move northeastward within the next 12 to 24 h. After 48 h, the influence of Carlotta's outer circulation should cause the weaker Daniel to turn more northward or north-northwestward before it becomes a remnant low or is absorbed by the stronger storm. There was not a whole lot of change in the track guidance for this cycle other than in the very short-term due to the more westward initial position, and the NHC track forecast is very close to the prior forecast, blending the HCCA and TCVE consensus aids. There is also not much change in the intensity reasoning for Daniel. Moderate northeasterly shear and a dry mid-level air environment will probably prevent much robust strengthening despite the warm 29 C sea-surface temperatures, and only a modest increase in winds are forecast over the next 24 to 36 h. Thereafter, Daniel's circulation is forecast to begin interacting with Carlotta to the north, and will likely start to gradually weaken. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest the circulation will stop producing organized convection by 72 h, just before the system opens up into a trough. The intensity forecast remains in good agreement with the HCCA and SHIPS guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 12.3N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 12.8N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 13.9N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 15.2N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 18.0N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 19.3N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 20:40:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 21:34:54 GMT