National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 050859 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 115W 34 39 24(63) 20(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 115W 50 X 10(10) 29(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 15N 115W 64 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 2(37) X(37) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050859 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 Emilia has held relatively steady overnight. Recently, a large burst of convection with cloud top temperatures of less than -80 degrees C has formed near the estimated center. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB both support maintaining the initial intensity at 35 kt for this advisory cycle. The intensity forecast continues to be quite uncertain. This is because of a system to the east of Emilia, Invest 96E. Almost all global and regional weather model guidance has trended toward making Emilia the dominant system. As a result, dissipation is no longer expected in a couple of days. Instead, Emilia is expected to take advantage of the warm ocean waters and conducive environment and strengthen through mid-week. By the end of the week, Emilia should move into a more stable environment with cooling sea surface temperature and gradually weaken. However, it is still possible that Invest 96E forms, strengthens, and causes Emilia to dissipate sooner. The latest NHC intensity forecast peaks Emilia in 48 h at 60 kt and predicts the system to become a remnant low by 120 h. The tropical storm is moving slowly to the south-southwest, at an estimated 200/4 kt. The near-term track forecast is being influenced by Invest 96E. Emilia is forecast to continue slowly south-southwestward as the two systems rotate cyclonically around each other. In about a day or so, Emilia should begin to lift to the north-northwest and accelerate as it is steered by a ridge centered over the southwestern United States. This motion should gradually turn more northwestward by mid-week. The latest track forecast has shifted to the west due to the initial location and has been extended into the future out to 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 14.8N 114.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 14.3N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 14.3N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 15.3N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 16.4N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 19.3N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 21.6N 125.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 23.1N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 050859 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM EMILIA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 114.1W ABOUT 625 MI...1000 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 114.1 West. Emilia is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. A sharp turn toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...TROPICAL STORM EMILIA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM MST Mon Aug 5 the center of Emilia was located near 14.8, -114.1 with movement SSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 050858 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 114.1W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 114.1W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.3N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.3N 114.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.3N 115.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 116.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.3N 120.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 21.6N 125.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.1N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 08:37:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 09:35:10 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050835 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050835 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 A 05/0422 UTC GPM/GMI microwave pass and GOES proxy-vis imagery indicate that Daniel's structure continues deteriorating due to the disrupting dominant monsoonal flow. Despite the advantageous microwave image, it has become increasingly difficult to pinpoint the cyclone's surface circulation center. Some fluctuations in Daniel's strength are possible today while the cyclone continues its trek over warm waters and remains within a modest wind shear environment. Afterward, the cyclone should move counter-clockwise around the eastern periphery of the larger Carlotta. During that time, SHIPS statistical intensity guidance and the global models show increasing dry air entrainment, prompting the cyclone to weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast agrees with the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus guidance and is similar to the previous advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, 060/10 kt, and this general motion within the low to mid-level southwesterly monsoonal flow should continue through today. After that time, global and regional models indicate that Daniel will move into the eastern periphery of Carlotta's cyclonic flow, resulting in a turn toward the north and northwest while spinning down to a remnant low on Tuesday and eventually opening up into a trough on Thursday. The NHC track forecast is an update to the previous one and closely follows the HCCA and TVCE consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 14.8N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.7N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 17.1N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 18.3N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 19.0N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z 19.6N 128.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050835 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...POORLY DEFINED DANIEL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON ... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 128.7W ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 128.7 West. Daniel is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next day or so. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...POORLY DEFINED DANIEL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON ... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Daniel was located near 14.8, -128.7 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 08:34:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 09:29:14 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050834 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 128.7W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 128.7W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 129.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.7N 127.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N 126.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.3N 126.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.6N 128.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 128.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 251 WTPZ43 KNHC 050834 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 A diminishing area of fragmented moderate convection is all that remains of Carlotta's cloud pattern this morning. The advisory's initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt and is just above the consensus of the various UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance. Carlotta should continue to spin down through the period gradually and could become a post-tropical cyclone later today if these convective trends continue. If not, the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by the end of the week, which is shown explicitly in the NHC intensity forecast. Carlotta's initial motion is estimated to be a little to the right of due west or 280/8 kt, and is forecast to continue moving in this general direction today. Through the remainder of the period, Carlotta should slow some in forward speed while turning toward the west-southwest on Tuesday and degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low. Dissipation is forecast to occur during the next couple of days while the remnant low traverses cooler sea surface temperatures and moves through a dry/stable marine-layer air mass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.2N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 20.3N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 20.4N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 20.2N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z 19.8N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 050833 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 1 7( 8) 11(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050833 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 126.5W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 105SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 126.5W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 126.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.3N 127.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.4N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.2N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.8N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 126.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 050833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 126.5W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 126.5 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Carlotta is expected to become a remnant low on Tuesday, or could become post-tropical cyclone later today. Dissipation of the cyclone is forecast by the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Carlotta was located near 20.2, -126.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050550
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, on Tropical Storm Daniel, and on recently formed
Tropical Storm Emilia, all located well offshore of the coast of
Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental
conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the coast of Mexico. For more information on this
system, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Emilia are issued under
WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Emilia are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 02:54:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 03:40:46 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050253 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 The organization of the tropical cyclone has improved on satellite imagery since the previous advisory. The subjective CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are both T-2.5/35 kt, and the CIMSS objective intensity estimates range from 33 to 35 kt. Earlier ASCAT data from around 17 UTC had peak wind vectors of 31 kt, and the organization on satellite imagery has certainty improved since that time, with the cyclone becoming more compact. Based on the Dvorak estimates, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Emilia with an initial intensity of 35 kt. The track forecast for Emilia is very dependent on a disturbance to the east of the system (Invest 96E), which has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next day or so. Most of the global models show both systems interacting with and rotating cyclonically around each other. Emilia should move to the south-southwest for the next 24 h, while it is located to the west of 96E. After that time, the larger circulation of 96E should pull the smaller Emilia toward the northwest or north-northwest. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. 96E and Emilia should merge together into one cyclone over the next couple of days, but it is uncertain which cyclone will be dominant and which cyclone will be absorbed. This forecast assumes that 96E will absorb Emilia, with Emilia dissipating beyond 48 h. However, it is quite possible that the opposite occurs, with Emilia absorbing 96E. Either way, I expect a tropical cyclone (the merged system) to be moving west-northwestward in 3 to 4 days, spreading tropical storm conditions across the open waters of the Pacific. The ECMWF model shows the two systems merging in 36-48 h, but the latest GFS model predicts a longer binary interaction, with the merger occurring in 3 to 4 days. Until the disturbance to the east starts to interact with Emilia, the environment appears favorable for intensification, and the intensity guidance has trended upward this cycle. The new NHC forecast shows Emilia strengthening to a 55 kt tropical storm in 36 h. This is near, or slightly below the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. The thinking is that Emilia will merge with 96E after that time, and 96E will likely be a tropical storm at the time of the merger. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.0N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 14.2N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 13.8N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 14.3N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 15.6N 114.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts