National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 060242 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 ...FABIO STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 109.8W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 109.8 West. Fabio is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight. Slight weakening is possible by Tuesday night, and the system is expected to be absorbed by Tropical Storm Emilia Wednesday or Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

...FABIO STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM MST Mon Aug 5 the center of Fabio was located near 16.3, -109.8 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060241 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Remaining deep convection associated with Carlotta has been intermittent and distant from the fully exposed circulation center. This is not surprising considering that Carlotta is moving over sea surface temperatures near 24C with vertical shear near 30 kt. Initial intensity estimates ranged from the ADT's 25 kt to CIMSS SATCON's 36 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 35 kt based on the SATCON estimate. While there may be intermittent flare-ups of deep convection over the next day or so, reintensification under these environmental conditions is not likely. As a result, Carlotta has been declared a post-tropical cyclone. The remnant circulation of Carlotta should continue to spin down and the global and hi-res hurricane models open up the circulation into a trough around the middle of the week. This is the last advisory on this system. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 20.6N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 20.6N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 20.2N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 19.6N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 19.1N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 060241 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.3N 112.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.9N 115.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.4N 117.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 060237 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 6 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KODAMA

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 060236 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...CARLOTTA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 128.5W ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 128.5 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and is expected to turn toward the west-southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The weakening trend will continue, and the system is forecast to dissipate around Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued on this system. For additional information on the Post-Tropical Cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kodama

...CARLOTTA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Carlotta was located near 20.6, -128.5 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 906 WTPZ23 KNHC 060232 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 128.5W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 128.5W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 128.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.6N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.2N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.6N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.1N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 128.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KODAMA

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052316
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, on Tropical Depression Daniel, on Tropical Storm
Emilia, and on Tropical Storm Fabio, all located well offshore of
the coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fabio are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fabio are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 665 WTPZ41 KNHC 052111 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 Satellite imagery shows that the low-level center of Fabio is on the north side of an area of strong, but loosely curved, convective bands. Scatterometer and synthetic aperture radar data received since the last advisory indicate that the circulation is closed and that the maximum winds are near 35 kt in the eastern semicircle. This is in good agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and it is the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial motion is now 310/13 kt. Fabio's motion should be dominated by interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia to the west-southwest, with Fabio expected to move northwestward and westward at an increased forward speed around the north side of Emilia for the next 36-48 h. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track. Some strengthening should occur in the next 12 h or so. After that, the intensity forecast is mainly based on the global model forecasts that Fabio will wind up being absorbed into Emilia, with the various model times of this absorption being between 12-36 h. The official forecast shows Fabio dissipating between 36-48 h in best agreement with the GFS model. However, the cyclone could dissipate at any time before then. Confidence in this forecast is increasing due to the more consistent global model solutions that Emilia will absorb Fabio. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 15.6N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 16.9N 110.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 18.2N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 20:48:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 20:48:40 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052044 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Carlotta continues to struggle within hostile environmental conditions, with sea surface temperatures below 25C and significant vertical shear. The center of the tropical cyclone is fully exposed, with the remaining deep convection confined to an outer rainband in its northern quadrant. The TAFB intensity estimate was 35 kt, CIMSS ADT was 25 kt, and CIMSS AiDT was 32 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is a conservative 35 kt. Carlotta should continue to spin down as it moves over cool sea surface temperatures and remains within significant vertical shear. If current trends continue, and persistent deep convection does not redevelop, post-tropical cyclone status will occur soon. The initial motion for Carlotta is 280/7 kt. This general motion should continue for the rest of today, then should turn toward the west-southwest as Carlotta's circulation becomes increasingly shallow. This scenario is consistent with the objective aids. The forecast track for this advisory reflects a slight northward adjustment from the previous advisory and is close to the dynamical consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 20.6N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 20.7N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 20.4N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 19.9N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 19.3N 132.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 052041 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 2 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER KODAMA

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 173 WTPZ33 KNHC 052040 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...CARLOTTA WEAKENING UNDER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 127.8W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 127.8 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and is expected to turn toward the west-southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlotta is expected to weaken and become a post-tropical low at any time, and is forecast to dissipate near the middle of this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kodama

...CARLOTTA WEAKENING UNDER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Carlotta was located near 20.6, -127.8 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 20:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 21:35:19 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052038 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 Satellite imagery shows that Emilia remains a sheared cyclone this afternoon, with the low-level center still located near the northeastern edge of a large convective mass with cloud tops to near -80C. A recent ASCAT overpass showed winds of 40+ kt in the southern semicircle, while the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain in the 35-40 kt range. Based on the scatterometer data, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. The initial wind radii were adjusted based on the ASCAT data. The latest global model runs continue to forecast that Emilia will be the survivor in its interaction with the Tropical Storm Fabio to the east, and the intensity forecast is based on this scenario and the expectation of continued moderate easterly shear. The forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and now forecasts a peak intensity of 55 kt in 36 h. After that time, although the shear is forecast to decrease, Emilia is expected to slowly weaken as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures. The new forecast is again an update of the previous forecast. Confidence in this forecast is increasing due to the more consistent model guidance that Emilia will absorb Fabio and not the other way around. The interaction with Fabio should steer Emilia southward for the next 12 h or so. After that, a turn toward the northwest or north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected as Emilia starts to absorb Fabio. After Fabio dissipates in about 48 h, Emilia should generally move west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north, with this general motion expected for the remainder of the forecast period. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 13.6N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 13.3N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 14.3N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 16.5N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 18.7N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 19.8N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 20.6N 123.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 22.0N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 23.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 052037 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 7 36(43) 35(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 15N 115W 50 X 5( 5) 27(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 44(55) X(55) X(55) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 052037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 114.0W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 114.0W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.3N 114.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.3N 114.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.8N 120.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.6N 123.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 127.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 114.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...EMILIA DRIFTING SOUTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM FABIO... As of 2:00 PM MST Mon Aug 5 the center of Emilia was located near 13.6, -114.0 with movement S at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.