National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific is
currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of the system while it moves west-northwestward at
around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 08:52:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 09:29:25 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080851 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Emilia is quickly weakening. Two scatterometer passes from 0442 and 0535 UTC showed winds up to 35 kt with an elongated center and a large area of light winds in the southwest quadrant. Even the area of tropical-storm-force winds shrunk notably by the time of the latter ASCAT pass. The center has an isolated, small burst of convection with some decaying thunderstorms in fragmented rainbands around the northern semicircle of the circulation. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The oceanic and atmospheric conditions are becoming increasingly hostile. Emilia is expected to continue weakening over the next couple of days and is now forecast to become a remnant low on Friday. Though, if satellite trends continue, this could occur sooner. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 18 kt. This motion, with a decreased forward speed, should continue though the weekend as Emilia is steered by a mid-level ridge centered to the storm's northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 21.1N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 21.8N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 22.7N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 23.4N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0600Z 24.1N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/1800Z 24.7N 131.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0600Z 25.1N 133.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z 25.4N 136.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 25.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 096 FOPZ15 KNHC 080850 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080850 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 121.9W ABOUT 780 MI...1250 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 121.9 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion with a slower forward speed is expected into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Emilia is likely to become a remnant low by Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Emilia was located near 21.1, -121.9 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080849 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 121.9W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 121.9W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 121.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.8N 123.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.7N 126.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.4N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.1N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.7N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.1N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.4N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.0N 139.0W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 121.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080549
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave moving over Central America is expected to emerge
over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific Ocean later today.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of the system while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to
20 mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 02:50:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 03:29:14 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080240 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Emilia seems to be in the final stages of fully absorbing the remnants of Fabio, which now appear fully enveloped in Emilia's larger circulation. With that said, the merger has not benefited Emilia, and most of its deep central convection has collapsed as the system approaches cooler waters. While there hasn't been recent microwave data over the system, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have either stayed the same or decreased slightly. The initial intensity is nudged downward to 50 kt for this advisory. The interaction with Fabio may have resulted in a brief acceleration in Emilia's forward motion, but the longer term motion is now off to the west-northwest at 290/16-kt. The steering associated with a mid-level ridge to the north should continue to result in a west-northwestward motion for most of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the prior advisory, and still lies in the middle of the track guidance envelope. As mentioned in the prior advisory, the shear is forecast to remain low over Emilia, but the tropical storm is also forecast to cross the 26 C isotherm tonight and move over increasingly cool ocean waters. In addition, the storm will also be traversing an increasingly dry and stable air mass along the forecast track. Thus, gradual weakening is forecast to continue, with Emilia expected to become a remnant low in about 48 hours, about the time when the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite shows organized convection dissipating. It will likely take a few more days for the circulation to spin down to the point it opens up into a trough, sometime between days 4 to 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 20.5N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 21.5N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 22.3N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 23.1N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 23.7N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/1200Z 24.4N 131.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0000Z 25.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z 25.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080239 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080238 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.9W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.9W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.1W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 122.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.3N 124.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.1N 127.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.7N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.4N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 119.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080238 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...EMILIA ABSORBING FABIO BUT ALSO WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 119.9W ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 119.9 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion with a slower forward speed is expected over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days and Emilia is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low by the end of this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...EMILIA ABSORBING FABIO BUT ALSO WEAKENING... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 7 the center of Emilia was located near 20.5, -119.9 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and has issued the
last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Fabio.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave currently moving over Central America is expected to
emerge into the far eastern portion of the East Pacific sometime on
Thursday. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
gradual development of the system thereafter as the system moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, parallel to the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 20:45:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 21:31:13 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Emilia's cloud pattern has become a little ragged-looking since earlier today, and the low-level center appears to be located near the northern edge of the main area of deep convection. The storm's circulation has been interacting with Fabio, which is rotating around the western side of Emilia while dissipating. Emilia is expected to absorb the remnant disturbance of Fabio within the next day or so. The current intensity is set at 55 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. This is also within the range of various objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS. The system appears to be continuing on a generally northwestward track, with an initial motion estimate of 305/16 kt. The steering flow associated with a mid-level ridge to the north of Emilia is likely to cause a generally west-northwestward motion for the next few days. The official forecast track lies roughly in the middle of the track guidance suite. Although the vertical shear over Emilia is expected to remain fairly low, The cyclone will be traversing progressively cooler waters during the next 48 hours or so. Low- to mid-level relative humidity is also forecast to decrease during this period as well. Therefore, gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days and Emilia should become a post-tropical remnant low on Friday. This is similar to the scenario shown by the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 19.1N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 20.5N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 21.5N 123.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 22.2N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 22.8N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/0600Z 23.4N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1800Z 23.9N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z 24.9N 135.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 072035 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...EMILIA A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 117.7W ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 117.7 West. Emilia is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...EMILIA A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 7 the center of Emilia was located near 19.1, -117.7 with movement NW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 072035 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 87 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 20N 120W 50 33 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 120W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH