National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Aug 2024 02:42:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Aug 2024 03:22:44 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090241 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...EMILIA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 125.3W ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 125.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed and turn westward is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical remnant low is expected to dissipate by the end of this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Papin

...EMILIA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Emilia was located near 22.3, -125.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 09 2024 769 WTPZ25 KNHC 090240 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC FRI AUG 09 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 125.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 125.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 124.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.1N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 132.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.8N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.7N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 125.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern portion of the eastern
Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual
development of this system will be possible during the next several
days while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph, parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 20:40:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 21:30:06 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082039 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Emilia appears to be in its final stage as a tropical cyclone. Deep convection is limited to a few small clusters over the western semicircle as the system is being influenced by some easterly vertical wind shear. The intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory in general agreement with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS, although this could be generous. Visible imagery indicates that the center appears to be located somewhat to the east of previous estimates. After some adjustments, the initial motion estimate is a little slower, or 290/12 kt. A mid-level ridge is expected to be maintained to the north of Emilia for the next few days. Based on this steering pattern, the cyclone should continue its generally west-northwestward heading for the next day or two followed by a more westward to west-southwestward movement within the shallow low-level flow. The NHC forecast track is close to the multi-model consensus guidance TVCE. Over the next day or two, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs cooler than 23 deg C in an environment of relatively dry air. This should cause the system to degenerate into a remnant low very soon as shown by the official intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 21.6N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 22.2N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 09/1800Z 22.9N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/0600Z 23.5N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1800Z 24.0N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/0600Z 24.4N 133.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z 24.5N 135.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 24.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 082039 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 082039 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 123.8W ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 123.8 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Emilia is likely to become a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Emilia was located near 21.6, -123.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 082038 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 123.8W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 123.8W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 123.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.2N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.9N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.5N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.4N 133.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.0N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 123.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern portion of the eastern
Pacific is producing limited and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system will be possible
during the next next several days while it moves west-northwestward
at around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 15:56:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 15:56:56 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 081554 CCA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE 34 KT WIND RADII AT 09/0000Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.3W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 180SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.3W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.8N 125.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.7N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.2N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.7N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 134.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 123.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 14:51:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 15:28:59 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081441 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Emilia is producing small bursts of convection near its center this morning, with little convective activity elsewhere within the circulation. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. This is also in good agreement with the overnight scatterometer data that showed 30-35 kt winds with the storm. The center of Emilia has been tugged slightly south of the previous forecast track by recent convective bursts, but the long-term motion remains west-northwestward (285/16 kt). The storm is expected to continue on a west-northwestward to westward heading with a slower forward speed over the next few days. The latest NHC track forecast follows the multi-model consensus trends and has been nudged a bit south of the previous prediction. Emilia is moving over cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment, making it unlikely that Emilia will remain a tropical cyclone for much longer. The updated NHC forecast shows Emilia becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 24 h. The weakening system will likely take a few days to spin down, and the global models indicate the cyclone should open into a trough and dissipate by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 21.2N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 21.8N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 22.7N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1200Z 24.2N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/0000Z 24.7N 133.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1200Z 24.9N 134.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 24.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 477 FOPZ15 KNHC 081440 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 480 WTPZ35 KNHC 081440 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...EMILIA MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 123.3W ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 123.3 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion at a slower forward speed is expected into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days, and Emilia is forecast to become a remnant low on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...EMILIA MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Emilia was located near 21.2, -123.3 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 081439 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.3W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 180SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.3W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.8N 125.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.7N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.2N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.7N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 134.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 123.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART