National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...GILMA CONTINUES TO BATTLE STRONG WIND SHEAR... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 the center of Gilma was located near 15.7, -118.3 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 940 WTPZ22 KNHC 200838 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 118.3W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 90SE 100SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 118.3W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 117.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 119.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.4N 121.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 110SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 110SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.3N 124.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.7N 125.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 126.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 128.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 20.0N 131.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 118.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200516
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization
in association with an area of low pressure located well
east-southeast of Hawaii. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two. The disturbance is forecast to meander
slowly northward or northeastward during the next day to two, while
interacting with or possibly combining with another disturbance
located a few hundred miles to its east-northeast. The combined
system is then forecast to accelerate west-northwestward into the
Central Pacific basin by Wednesday night. Information on this
system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better
organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located
well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. This system is forecast to move toward the west-northwest
during the next day or two as it interacts with or possibly combines
with EP90 to its west, and a tropical depression could form within
the next few days. Further development after that time appears
unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of this week. Environmental
conditions should support slow development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward over open waters, well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 02:39:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 03:29:05 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 057 WTPZ42 KNHC 200237 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Gilma is looking a little more ragged on satellite imagery this evening. Deep convection is confined to the southwest quadrant of the circulation and the cloud top temperatures have been gradually warming. Still, subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have held steady this cycle, partially due to constraints. The initial intensity remains at a possibly generous 50 kt. The storm is moving westward at an estimated 9 kt. The track reasoning has not changed. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States is expected to turn Gilma west-northwestward soon and steer the storm in this general direction for the entirety of the forecast period. The forward motion of the storm should slow in the next day or so as a deep-layer trough off of the U.S. west coast weakens the ridge. There is still quite a bit of spread in the model track guidance, though the envelope has shifted southward this cycle. The official forecast has been nudged slightly south of the previously predicted track and remains near the various consensus aids. The strong-to-moderate vertical wind shear is expected to abate within a day or so according to the global models. Once this occurs, oceanic and environmental conditions should allow for steady strengthening, and Gilma is forecast to reach hurricane strength late this week or early this weekend. There is a wide range in the intensity model guidance, making this forecast somewhat uncertain. The latest official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 15.2N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 15.6N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 16.1N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 16.6N 122.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 17.1N 123.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 17.6N 124.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 18.0N 125.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 18.8N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 19.6N 130.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 200236 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 12 43(55) 2(57) X(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) 15N 120W 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 3(21) X(21) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 29(36) 9(45) 1(46) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 20(50) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 684 WTPZ32 KNHC 200236 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 ...GILMA HEADING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 117.3W ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 117.3 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight or tomorrow morning and continue through mid-week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is likely for the next day or two. Gilma is forecast to approach hurricane strength in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...GILMA HEADING WESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 the center of Gilma was located near 15.2, -117.3 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 200235 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.3W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 40SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.3W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 116.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.6N 118.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.1N 120.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.6N 122.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.1N 123.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.6N 124.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.0N 125.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 18.8N 128.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 90SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 19.6N 130.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 117.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192337
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure located well east-southeast of Hawaii.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to meander slowly
northward or northeastward during the next couple of days or so,
before accelerating west-northwestward into the Central Pacific
basin by the latter portion of the week. Information on this
system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is located well
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
This system is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest for the
next few days, and interactions with either EP90 to its west or
Gilma to its east could limit the potential for formation.
Regardless, a tropical depression could form within the next few
days. Further development after that time will be unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of this week. Environmental
conditions could become conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 20:43:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 21:29:18 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 192041 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 ASCAT data valid at 1644 UTC showed that Gilma has strengthened slightly and its wind field has grown a little. While the tropical storm is still sheared, maximum winds measured by the ASCAT were between 40 and 45 kt, which after accounting for undersampling supports an intensity around 50 kt. An average of the most recent Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB also yields 50 kt, so that is the intensity estimate for this advisory. The maximum extent of 34 kt winds is estimated to be around 70 n mi based on the ASCAT data, mostly to the southwest in the deep convection. Although the track forecast spread in the model guidance remains unusually high, not much change was made to the NHC forecast, except to show a slightly faster forward motion in 24-48 h. Otherwise, Gilma is still expected to slow down and turn west-northwestward within the next day as the ridge currently steering the storm is gradually eroded by a deep-layer trough off the U.S. west coast. There is still quite a bit of difference between the models in the forward speed of Gilma, so the NHC forecast closely follows the consensus throughout the forecast. Only small adjustments were made to the intensity forecast. Gilma should remain sheared for another day or so, limiting the potential for strengthening during that period. After that, the shear should decrease and Gilma should strengthen. Most models continue to indicate that Gilma will approach hurricane strength later this week. The NHC intensity forecast remains very close to the various intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 15.1N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 15.5N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 16.2N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 16.7N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 17.2N 123.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 17.8N 124.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 18.3N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 19.0N 127.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 192040 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 37(39) 2(41) 1(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) 15N 120W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 3(18) X(18) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 36(43) 9(52) 1(53) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 24(48) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 192040 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 ...GILMA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 116.9W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 116.9 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower west-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue through mid-week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is likely for the next day or two. Gilma is forecast to approach hurricane strength in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...GILMA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 the center of Gilma was located near 15.1, -116.9 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 192039 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.9W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 40SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.9W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.5N 118.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.2N 120.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.7N 122.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.2N 123.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.8N 124.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.3N 126.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 127.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 90SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 116.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located well east-southeast of Hawaii has changed little
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast
to meander slowly northward or northeastward during the next few
days, before accelerating west-northwestward into the Central
Pacific basin by the latter portion of the week. Information on this
system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is located well
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
This system has not become any better organized today. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest for the
next few days, and interactions with either EP90 to its west or
Gilma to its east could limit the potential for formation.
Regardless, a tropical depression could form within the next few
days. Further development after that time will be unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of this week. Environmental
conditions could become conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Nepaul

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 16:05:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 16:05:44 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 15:09:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 15:29:07 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 14:47:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 14:47:38 GMT